Opta’s Supercomputer Predicts Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich in the Champions League

The data gives us a new perspective on what the return match between Bayern and Madrid will be like in this Champions League quarterfinal.

Bayern's momentum

Bayern Munich is going through a stunning moment and has established itself as one of the most spectacular teams in Europe this season. With 105 goals in the Bundesliga, they have already broken the historical record for most goals in a season with several matches still to be played.

Under the leadership of Vincent Kompany, the Bavarian team has accumulated 307 goals in 101 official matches, with an expected goals record higher than any other club in the top five leagues. Only Barcelona (82) and Real Madrid (78) surpass the 77 victories achieved by Bayern during that period.

The victory in the first leg

Last week, they delivered a show of authority at the Santiago Bernabéu, winning 2-1 with goals from Luis Díaz and Harry Kane. However, Kylian Mbappé's goal keeps Madrid's hopes alive for the return leg in Germany. The match was a real spectacle, with 20 shots on each side and a frantic pace that reflected the quality of both.

What will happen in the second leg?

Now, at the Allianz Arena, the virtual Bundesliga champions will seek to secure a place in the semifinals and keep the dream of a treble alive. The statistics back them up: on 23 occasions, they won the first match of a European knockout series away from home, and only once were they eliminated, against Inter in 2010-11 due to the away goals rule.

With such offensive power and a present that combines efficiency with spectacle, Bayern is shaping up as a strong candidate for everything, although they know that against Real Madrid, nothing is decided until the last minute. The supercomputer predicts a 56.9% chance of victory for Bayern Munich.