The race for the Champions League remains tight with only four games left to play, but Manchester United and Liverpool remain in control of their own fates.

After their win over Brentford on Monday, United only need two points to secure a return to UEFA's premier competition.

And with Liverpool only three points behind them, the Reds know a win by any margin on Sunday would see them leapfrog United into third, also moving themselves to within touching distance of a top-five finish.

United have won each of their last two matches, while Liverpool are on a three-match winning streak, setting up this clash perfectly.

But can Michael Carrick orchestrate another win against one of United's rivals? Or will Arne Slot keep Liverpool on track as they begin a tough run-in?

Ahead of the match, we dive into the Opta data to highlight the stories and players to watch.

What's expected?

With both teams needing three points to close in on the Champions League, this is expected to be a tight contest.

United are slight favourites, coming out on top in 42.8% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match predictions, with Liverpool earning all three points in 30.5% of them.

However, at 26.7%, this game was given the highest chance of a draw across the Premier League this weekend, so there might be little to split the sides.

United have won just three of their last 19 Premier League games against Liverpool (D9 L7), though are looking to complete the league double over the Reds for the first time since 2015-16.

However, Liverpool have won three of their last five away league games against the Red Devils (D1 L1), as many as in their previous 18 visits to Old Trafford (D3 L12).

And after leading the team to a 3-0 victory in this exact fixture last season, Slot could become the first-ever Liverpool manager to win both of his first two away league games against United.

Fernandes has record books in sight

United have impressed under Carrick since he took over, and now have a return to the Champions League next season in their sights.

Since Carrick's first game in charge this season, United have won more points than any other side (29). His nine wins in 13 matches (D2 L2) are already more than Ruben Amorim won in his 20 games in 2025-26 (W8 D7 L5).

And they have fortified Old Trafford once more. They have won the third-most home points in the Premier League this season (36) – last season, they were 14th in the home table with 24 points.

The Red Devils have won six of their last seven at Old Trafford, losing the other to Leeds United.

And leading that charge has been Bruno Fernandes, who has the potential to write his name into the Premier League record books as soon as this weekend.

Fernandes has 19 assists in the top-flight this season and is one behind the seasonal record set by Thierry Henry for Arsenal in 2002-03 and Kevin De Bruyne for Man City in 2019-20. He has created 114 chances this season, 53 more than any other player.

With four games left to play, the United captain looks set to not only equal the single-season record but also surpass it, and he will be keen to continue his fine run of form against Liverpool.

By setting up Benjamin Sesko's winner against Brentford on Monday, Fernandes became just the third United player to score or assist in at least eight consecutive Premier League appearances at Old Trafford.

He follows after Cristiano Ronaldo between March and November 2008 (10 in a row) and Wayne Rooney between December 2009 and March 2010 (eight in a row).

Overall, he became the first United player to score or assist in at least seven straight league appearances since Robin van Persie between November 2012 and January 2013 (10 in a row).

Fernandes has 140 goal contributions for United in the Premier League (70 goals, 70 assists), the joint-fifth most for the club in the competition alongside Ronaldo, and there is no doubt that Carrick will rely heavily on him to make something happen again.

Liverpool are ramping up the pressure

Liverpool have turned things around after another wobble in March, winning each of their last three matches to move up to fourth and close in on United.

In fact, only in their opening five matches of the season have they enjoyed a longer winning run in the Premier League than their current run of form.

The Reds have, however, won only one of their last 12 league games against sides starting the day in the top three (D3 L12), which is a run they will be determined to turn around as they look to avoid needing to look over their shoulders at the chasing pack.

Liverpool have won four of their last 23 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (D10 L9), though their win over Everton in their last away match ended a winless run of seven straight such games.

No matter what, Liverpool will always feel they have a chance to win – or lose – points right at the very end, with nine of their Premier League games this season being determined by 90th-minute winning goals.

Four of those have been for the Reds, and the other five against, with this more than in any other team's games in a single season in the competition's history.

In addition, 78.8% of Liverpool's expected goals total in the Premier League this season has come from open play (43.5), the highest proportion – nine of their last 12 goals have come from open play, compared to just three of their previous 12.

One player Liverpool will have to contend without is Mohamed Salah, who is expected to play again for the Reds before departing in the summer, though Slot confirmed that the trip to Old Trafford would come too soon for the 33-year-old, who recently suffered a minor muscle injury. 

He would prove a big miss for the Reds, given he has scored more goals against United both overall (13) and away from home (seven) than any other player in the competition's history.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Casemiro

While Fernandes is likely to play a key role again this weekend, Casemiro will be looking to follow up his rock-solid performance against Brentford with another impressive display.

He is just the second player to score at least eight headed goals in a Premier League season for United after Dwight Yorke in 1999-00 (also eight), while only Harry Kane (10 in 2022-23) and Duncan Ferguson (nine in 1997-98) have scored more headers in a single campaign in the competition's history.

In fact, Casemiro has scored nine goals in 35 Premier League appearances this season, more than he managed in his previous four league campaigns combined (seven goals in 110 appearances between 2021-22 and 2024-25 with Real Madrid and United).

Liverpool – Alexander Isak

Alexander Isak's next Premier League appearance will be his 100th in the competition, and he is looking to score in successive league appearances for Liverpool for the very first time.

His only previous Premier League goal against United came at Old Trafford in a 2-0 victory for Newcastle United in December 2024.

All three of Isak's Premier League goals for Liverpool have been the game's opening goal. Since 2022-23, only Erling Haaland (37) and Ollie Watkins (21) have more opening goals in the competition than his 19.