Favorites on Paper

If everything were decided solely by the FIFA rankings, the qualifiers would be clear: Italy (12th), Denmark (21st), Turkey (25th), and Ukraine (28th) would claim the available tickets.

But football doesn’t work that way.

The rankings only granted them the advantage of being placed in Pot 1 for the draw, avoiding each other in the first round. From here on out, everything will be decided on the pitch.

As expected, these four teams enter as the main favorites. However, right behind them is a group with enough arguments to go toe-to-toe: Poland (31st), Wales (32nd), Czech Republic (44th), and Slovakia (45th). These are teams with experience, talent, and the ability to disrupt anyone’s path.

Potential Dark Horses

Further down the list are teams with less pedigree but real upset potential. Sweden (43rd), far from its best version; Romania (47th), which slipped in through the back door; North Macedonia (65th), remembered for eliminating Italy in the previous cycle; and Northern Ireland (69th), which hasn’t played in a World Cup since Mexico 1986—coincidentally, also in North America.

Then there’s the most uncomfortable group: the teams nobody wants to face.

Ireland (50th) has built a solid, competitive unit. Albania (63rd) and Kosovo (80th) dream of playing in their first World Cup, driven by generations that believe they can make history. Bosnia and Herzegovina (80th), although far from its best version—the one that reached 13th in the world in 2013—remains a dangerous opponent, especially if it manages to close out the qualifiers at home.

The playoffs promise intense matchups, unpredictable scenarios, and more than one surprise.

Because here, the rankings don’t play.

The inevitable question is: who will be Europe’s four guests at the World Cup?

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