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What Does Each Team Need on the Final Matchday of the Champions League?
18 matches at the same time and countless scenarios still open. The final Champions League matchday arrives with the Top-8, the playoff and several European dreams on the line.
The league phase of the UEFA Champions League will come to an end next Wednesday with a dramatic final matchday featuring 18 games played simultaneously, and there is still a huge amount at stake. With just 90 minutes remaining, only two teams have already secured direct qualification to the Round of 16, 13 have guaranteed at least a playoff spot, and four are mathematically eliminated.
Below, we break down team by team what each side needs to achieve its European objective.
1. Arsenal - 21 points (+18)
Already qualified directly for the Round of 16 and almost certain to finish first. A draw at home against Kairat would be enough, and even a defeat could still see them top the table depending on Bayern’s result.
2. Bayern Munich - 18 points (+13)
Top-8 secured with slim chances of finishing first. They need Arsenal to lose and must beat PSV away while overturning the goal difference. Highly unlikely.
3. Real Madrid - 15 points (+11)
Not yet mathematically in the Top-8, but in a very strong position. A win away to Benfica guarantees it. A draw would almost certainly be enough. A loss would require help elsewhere.
4. Liverpool - 15 points (+6)
Similar scenario to Real Madrid, but with a weaker goal difference. They host Qarabag, who are still fighting for a playoff spot.
5. Tottenham - 14 points (+8)
A win guarantees a Top-8 finish regardless of other results. A draw would require no more than three of the eight teams on 13 points to win. They visit an already eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt.
6. Paris Saint-Germain - 13 points (+10)
Hosts Newcastle. A win secures a Top-8 spot barring extremely unlikely goal swings elsewhere. Fully in their own hands.
7. Newcastle - 13 points (+10)
Identical scenario to PSG, but away from home. The head-to-head clash will be a true Round of 16 final at St. James’ Park.
8. Chelsea - 13 points (+6)
In control of their fate. A win with a solid goal margin should secure a Top-8 finish. They visit a Napoli side fighting for survival.
9. Barcelona - 13 points (+5)
A convincing home win over Copenhagen would virtually secure a place in the Round of 16. Anything less, and the calculator comes out.
10. Sporting Portugal - 13 points (+5)
Very similar to Barcelona, but with a tougher task away to Athletic Club, who are also fighting to stay alive.
11. Manchester City - 13 points (+4)
Must beat Galatasaray and outperform at least three teams above them. The PSG–Newcastle matchup guarantees overtaking one rival.
12. Atlético de Madrid - 13 points (+3)
Needs a big win at home against Bodø/Glimt to realistically challenge for the Top-8. Winning alone may not be enough.
13. Atalanta - 13 points (+1)
Very slim chances. Must win big away to Union Saint-Gilloise and hope for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.
14. Inter - 12 points (+6)
Playoff secured. Top-8 hopes are almost nonexistent. They must win in Dortmund and hope for chaos.
15. Juventus - 12 points (+4)
Same as Inter but with worse goal difference. A win in Monaco plus a miracle elsewhere is required.
16. Borussia Dortmund - 11 points (+4)
Mathematical Top-8 hopes remain, but barely. A draw almost certainly secures a playoff spot. Hosts Inter.
17. Galatasaray - 10 points (0)
A win guarantees the playoff. A draw or even a loss could still be enough, depending on other results.
18. Qarabag - 10 points (-2)
One of the tournament’s surprises. Fully in control of their destiny. A win guarantees qualification. They visit Anfield.
19. Olympique Marseille - 9 points (0)
A win secures the playoff. A draw would likely be enough. They travel to Club Brugge.
20. Bayer Leverkusen - 9 points (-4)
A win guarantees the playoff. A draw likely does as well. They host an already eliminated Villarreal.
21. AS Monaco - 9 points (-6)
A win secures qualification. Any other result forces them to rely on others. Hosts Juventus.
22. PSV - 8 points (+1)
Best goal difference among teams on eight points. A win almost guarantees the playoff. Hosts Bayern Munich.
23. Athletic Club - 8 points (-4)
In control of their fate. A win should be enough. Any other result makes things complicated.
24. Olympiacos - 8 points (-5)
Similar to Athletic but with worse goal difference. They visit Ajax.
25. Napoli - 8 points (-5)
In control, but must outperform direct rivals. Hosts Chelsea.
26. FC Copenhagen - 8 points (-6)
Very difficult. Must win in Barcelona and hope at least two direct rivals slip.
27. Brujas - 7 points (-5)
Must beat Marseille and hope for dropped points above them. A draw could work, but only with help.
28. Bodø/Glimt - 6 points (-2)
Must win and rely on other results. A draw or loss eliminates them. Visit Atlético Madrid.
29. Benfica - 6 points (-4)
Must beat Real Madrid and hope for several favorable results. Very tough.
30. Pafos - 6 points (-6)
Mathematical hopes remain. Must win and rely on a perfect storm. Host Slavia Prague.
31. Union Saint-Gilloise - 6 points (-10)
Needs a win over Atalanta and a miracle due to goal difference.
32. Ajax - 6 points (-12)
Last team with any chance, though remote. Must beat Olympiacos and hope for multiple upsets.
Already Eliminated
Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat Almaty are already out of contention.
