The Numbers Game: Spurs and Aston Villa desperate to snap winless starts

It has certainly not been the start to the season that either Tottenham or Aston Villa envisaged.

Spurs spent around £300m on bolstering their squad and backing Roberto De Zerbi, after they stayed up on the final day of last season.

However, four Premier League games into 2026-27, Spurs have not managed to win or even score a goal.

Villa, too, are without a victory. They have taken just one point from their four top-flight outings, one point fewer than Spurs.

Now, these teams meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday, and only one of them will be able to snap their winless start to the campaign. 

Here, using Opta insights, we look ahead to Spurs v Villa.

What's expected?

Villa have won four of their last six Premier League away games against Spurs (L2), more than they had in their previous 21 visits (W3 D5 L13).

None of the last 22 Premier League meetings between Spurs (15 wins) and Villa (seven) have been drawn. The former have lost five of the last eight, more than they had in their previous 29 against the Villans (W18 D7 L4).

After winning each of his first three encounters with De Zerbi, Unai Emery has lost each of the last two meetings, including a 2-1 reverse at Villa Park in May.

These teams prop up the Premier League when it comes to expected goals (xG) accumulated so far across this campaign.

Spurs rank 19th (3.45 xG) and Villa 20th (3.39 xG).

So, perhaps a free-flowing, high-scoring contest should not be anticipated. 

However, Opta's model does back Spurs, who are fresh off a 3-1 loss to Liverpool in the EFL Cup, to end their league goal drought and win this game. 

They come out on top in 48.6% of the supercomputer's 10,000 data-led simulations. Villa, on the other hand, have a 26.5% win probability, while the likelihood of a draw is 24.9%.

Big transfer budget, big problems

The additions of attackers Omar Marmoush and Savio, on top of the recruitment of midfielders Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes, were meant to transform Spurs.

But De Zerbi and the club's leadership are still waiting on a return on that investment.

Only Crystal Palace in 2017-18 (first seven games) have endured a longer start to a Premier League season without scoring than Spurs this term, while it is their longest goalscoring drought to the start of a campaign in the top-four tiers.

De Zerbi's team have, at least, taken two points from their last two league outings, drawing 0-0 with Nottingham Forest and Everton.

Spurs have had as many goalless draws in their last two league games as they had across their previous 181 matches in the competition.

The last side to record three successive goalless draws in the competition was West Ham in December 2015, with Spurs last doing so in January/February 2001 under George Graham (run of four).

It has been 407 minutes since Spurs last scored in the Premier League, while they have failed to score in four successive Premier League matches for the first time since September 2006.

The Everton stalemate last week marked the very first goalless draw at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Premier League (140th game), and the first time that Spurs have drawn 0-0 in a home game in the competition since September 2017 v Swansea City at Wembley Stadium.

Spurs' attacking issues are evidenced further by the fact that they have managed to create chances worth a higher xG total than their opponents in just one of their four matches so far (1.12 xG vs Newcastle United's 0.69 xG on August 29).

There is no sense yet that De Zerbi is under pressure to keep his job, especially given he signed a bumper contract when he joined Spurs earlier this year, but it has been a dreadful start after the huge spend this past summer.

Deja vu for Villa

Villa sit 19th. They have taken just one point and scored only one goal.

However, it rather feels like they have been here before.

Emery's team went the first four league matches of last season without scoring; however, they ultimately ended up finishing fourth and winning the Europa League.

Only in 1919-20 (first seven), 1964-65 (seven) and 2025-26 (five) have Villa failed to win any of their opening five matches of a top-flight league season.

Villa's scoring issues have been limited, it seems, to the Premier League, though.

They beat Club Brugge 3-2 in their opening Champions League game last week, and then, on Wednesday, dispatched Coventry City 3-1 to progress in the EFL Cup.

Tammy Abraham, who may well have left Villa late in the transfer window, scored twice in that victory, making it six goals in seven away appearances in the competition, despite him starting just three of those matches.

With Villa on the road again, maybe Emery could turn to his back-up striker, with Nicolas Jackson still waiting for his first goal since joining from Chelsea.

Villa have registered 5.9 xG across their two non-Premier League fixtures over the past week or so, and Emery will be hoping it is now just a matter of time until it all clicks in the top flight, too.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham – Savio

Of the six players to complete 9+ take-ons in the Premier League so far this season, three play for Spurs: Mathys Tel (10/22), Omar Marmoush (9/17) and Savio (9/23).

Last time out against Everton, Savio became the first player this season to complete 4+ take-ons and create 4+ chances from open play.

The Brazilian could not find consistent output at Manchester City, but when he is at his best, he is a frightening prospect for any defence to handle.

Aston Villa – Emiliano Buendia

If there is one player Villa can back to have a say against Spurs, then it is Buendia.

The Argentina international has been involved in four Premier League goals against them (three goals, one assist), his most against a single side in the competition.

In fact, he could become the third visiting player to score in three successive league trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, after Eberechi Eze and Bryan Mbeumo.