The man behind the World Cup prediction

Every World Cup brings favorites, statistics and betting odds, but few predictions generate as much attention as those made by Joachim Klement. The German economist and analyst gained notoriety after boasting an impressive record: correctly predicting the champions of the last three World Cups.

Ahead of Brazil 2014, his model identified Germany as the favorite. Four years later, it pointed toward France and, before Qatar 2022, it surprised again by naming Argentina as champion. That string of successful predictions turned his name into a reference point whenever a new World Cup approaches.

Now, with the 2026 World Cup just around the corner, Klement has published a new forecast and sparked immediate debate among fans and analysts.

How does his mathematical model work?

Unlike predictions based solely on sporting performance, Klement’s model combines statistical, economic and demographic variables to estimate World Cup success probabilities.

The German analyst himself has acknowledged on several occasions that his formula is not intended to be infallible and that a large part of football still depends on luck and circumstances impossible to predict.

However, after three consecutive successful predictions, any new calculation from him inevitably gains attention.

The new prediction for 2026 surprises the world

The biggest revelation of the model for the 2026 World Cup has an unexpected name: the Netherlands.

According to Klement’s simulation, the Dutch national team would end up lifting the trophy and defeating Portugal in the final, a prediction that goes against most traditional forecasts that usually favor teams such as France, Argentina, Spain or England.

The prediction also includes several surprises along the way, including unexpected eliminations and teams capable of disrupting the usual order of international football.

For many, choosing the Netherlands is striking for one historical reason: the Oranje have never won a World Cup, despite reaching three finals and possessing one of the most respected football schools on the planet.

The Netherlands and the chance to make history

The prediction arrives at a moment of optimism for Dutch football. Under Ronald Koeman and with a competitive generation of players, the Netherlands aims to return to the center of the World Cup spotlight.

The European side still carries a historic debt with the World Cup after falling just short of the title in 1974, 1978 and 2010, finals that helped build the reputation of a brilliant football power without a crown.

Because of that, Klement’s projection has sparked both excitement and skepticism. Although the economist himself insists that his model guarantees nothing, his track record of correctly predicting three World Cups makes this one of the most discussed forecasts heading into 2026.

If he proves right once again, the Netherlands would not only claim its first star but also confirm that the so-called “World Cup mathematician” still possesses a formula that is difficult to ignore.