Argentina Could Be Finding Their Peak At Copa

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By Nick Dorrington (@chewingthecoca)

By almost every normal measure of dominance, Argentina have been a dominant team throughout the 2015 Copa América. They have averaged a 65 percent share of possession, a 68 percent share of shots, a 73 percent share of shots on target and a 71 percent share of shots on target from inside the penalty area over the course of their four matches to date.

They have, however, frequently failed to translate that dominance into comfortable victories. They drew once and won twice by a one-goal margin in topping Group B, before suffering the nadir of this phenomena in Friday’s quarter-final success over Colombia.

Argentina dominated from the opening whistle in Viña del Mar, frequently parted their opponent’s defence, took 89 percent of the shots yet failed to score even once due to a mix of slack finishing and an outrageously good performance from David Ospina in the Colombian goal. Carlos Tevez admitted afterwards that he had watched on in awe from the bench as his team-mates played their best football of the tournament - swift and incisive football that clearly marked them out as a Gerardo Martino team.

It was a performance as forceful and penetrative as that in their previous Copa América knockout victory over Colombia: a 3-0 triumph under the command of Martino’s mentor Marcelo Bielsa in 2004.

But the finishing touch just wouldn’t arrive. Javier Pastore, Sergio Aguero, Lionel Messi and Nicolas Otamendi all found Ospina to be a formidable barrier to goal. Aguero and Marcos Rojo headed over from inside the area. Substitute Éver Banega struck the crossbar.

“What we were unable to achieve during the match, we will achieve during the shootout,” Martino said to his players as part of an impassioned final-whistle speech. And they did, just, with Tevez partially making up for his miss in the 2011 quarter-final shootout defeat to Uruguay by converting the winning penalty to see Argentina through to the final four.

It was a lucky escape for a team for whom good fortune has been a rare ally during this tournament. In light of the positions from which they have taken their shots, they could reasonably have been expected to score three or four more goals than they have so far. Their PDO rating (a compound of their shooting and save percentages), an accepted measure of luck, stands five percentage points below the mean.

These things have less time to even themselves out over a six-game tournament than they do over the course of a full league season, but Argentina can nevertheless be hopeful that things will start to fall their way more often from now on. It seems strange to suggest that a 0-0 draw has strengthened their status as tournament favourites, but the quality of their performance on Friday illustrated the progress they have made throughout the competition.

As the squad have spent more time together, the movements and interchanges that are an integral part of Martino’s philosophy have started to come together more naturally. Little partnerships are being established all over the pitch, while the team are becoming better organised in defensive transitions. They conceded just one shot on target against Colombia.

The scary thing for their upcoming opponents is that if luck does finally swing their way, one feels they still capable of a two or three-goal performance.

In 1991, a year after losing the World Cup final to Germany, Argentina won the Copa América on Chilean soil. Despite their failure to score, their display on Friday suggested that history could well be set to repeat itself.