The Numbers Game: Ballon d'Or winner Kane out to make Klassiker mark as Bayern face Dortmund

As of this week, the best player in the world plays for Bayern Munich, and all eyes will be on Harry Kane when they take on Klassiker rivals Borussia Dortmund on Saturday.

Kane's Ballon d'Or triumph was the first by a Bayern player since Karl-Heinz Rummenigge in 1981, while he is the first Bundesliga recipient overall since Dortmund icon Matthias Sammer in 1996.

Kane was honoured by Bayern's fans ahead of Wednesday's 6-1 rout of Magdeburg in the DFB-Pokal, but the England captain was an unused substitute for that game, so his first outing as a Ballon d'Or winner will come in German football's biggest fixture. 

But will Kane have his say in a battle between the only two unbeaten teams remaining in the Bundesliga?

Here, we delve into the best Opta insights to provide a data-powered preview of Der Klassiker. 

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Bayern clear favourites to take all three points, with 67.1% of the model's pre-match simulations going their way.

Dortmund only won 15.4% of sims, while the remaining 17.4% saw the spoils shared. 

The result of Saturday's game could swing the supercomputer's season predictions, but going into matchday eight, Bayern are assigned an 87.7% chance of retaining their title, with Dortmund (8.1%) having the best chance of dethroning them. 

Saturday's game will be the 141st competitive meeting between Bayern and Dortmund since the formation of the Bundesliga in 1963 – it is the most-played fixture in German professional football. 

Bayern have suffered more defeats against Dortmund than they have versus any other opponent in all competitions (33).

However, they have lost only one of the teams' last 17 meetings (W13 D3 L1), suffering a 2-0 home defeat under Thomas Tuchel in March 2024, a result that virtually ended their title hopes as Bayer Leverkusen went on to claim the trophy that season. 

Bayern did the double over BVB last term, triumphing 2-1 at home last October and earning a thrilling 3-2 success on the road in February, with Joshua Kimmich scoring an 87th-minute winner in the latter game. 

World's finest out to make a mark

If Kane could have selected an opponent for his first Bundesliga match as a Ballon d'Or winner, a heavyweight clash with Dortmund would surely have been top of his list. 

And Kane, who is no stranger to the biggest rivalries in football, having scored more north London derby goals than any other player, also has a strong record against BVB.

Kane has six goals in his six previous Bundesliga matches against Dortmund, including a hat-trick in his first such appearance in November 2023 and a brace in February this year. 

Kane has averaged a goal every 80 minutes when facing Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Among sides he has faced at least six times, he only has a better record versus Stuttgart (51 mins, 10 goals in seven games), RB Leipzig (62 mins, eight goals in six games) and Werder Bremen (63 mins, eight goals in six games).

Kane's nine goal involvements in the Bundesliga this season (four goals, five assists) are the joint-most of any player, alongside his team-mate Michael Olise (six goals, three assists), and he has found the net in 10 of his last 12 matches for club and country (14 goals in total).

The England captain's stunning form has helped Bayern score a Bundesliga-high 25 goals already this season, while they also boast the second-best defensive record in the division, with only six goals conceded. 

And a remarkable 18 of those 25 goals have been scored in their first three home matches of the season – a new record by any club at this stage of a campaign.

Bayern have scored at least five goals in each of their last four home games in the Bundesliga dating back to last season, the first time they have done so in their history.  

If the reigning champions and their Ballon d'Or winner can maintain that lethal form, Bayern should bring some joy to recovering head coach Vincent Kompany, with Aaron Danks set to take the Belgian's place in the dugout again for this match, following his collapse at the club's training ground last week.

Dortmund's title ambitions face litmus test 

Both Bayern and Dortmund have 17 points on the board after seven matchdays (both W5 D2), holding the last two unbeaten records in the 2026-27 Bundesliga.

However, for people to take Dortmund's title challenge seriously, a statement result against Bayern may be required. 

In two of the last three Bundesliga seasons, Bayern have handed BVB their first defeat of the campaign – they beat them 2-1 in Munich on Matchday 7 of 2025-26, having also triumphed 4-0 in Dortmund on Matchday 10 of 2023-24.

In addition, Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 Bundesliga matches when playing as league leaders against the side in second place (W13 D8) – the longest such run by any team in Bundesliga history. Their last defeat in such a fixture came in January 2015, 4-1 at Wolfsburg.

Keeping Bayern's star-studded attack quiet will be the number one priority for Niko Kovac, and Dortmund are the only Bundesliga side with a better defensive record than their rivals this term – in fact, their four goals conceded are the fewest by any team in Europe's top five leagues.

BVB have kept five clean sheets in their opening seven matches, equalling their club record set in 2017-18 and 2020-21. 

And though Dortmund's defence was breached twice in their midweek DFB-Pokal tie, a 3-2 home win over Werder Bremen, they tend to be even tougher to beat on the big occasions.

Indeed, Dortmund have won their last seven Saturday evening Bundesliga matches, their longest-ever winning streak in such fixtures, and the last four of those have been accompanied by clean sheets. That is the longest run by any club since the Bundesliga introduced Saturday evening kick-offs in 2008. 

But make no mistake, Dortmund should not be expected to simply sit back and dig in.

So far this season, Bayern have recovered the ball, on average, further from their own goal than any other team in the Bundesliga (45.4 metres), but Dortmund are second by that same metric (44.7 metres). Dortmund also rank third in the division for high turnovers (65), with only Bayern (74) and Hoffenheim (68) forcing more.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Bayern Munich – Michael Olise

Olise finished ninth in the Ballon d'Or voting in midweek, and Bayern's chief executive Jan-Christian Dreesen has since backed the Frenchman to one day follow in Kane's footsteps and scoop the award.

He has recorded both a goal and an assist in three of his last four Bundesliga matches, as many games with at least one of each as he managed in his previous 23. 

Borussia Dortmund – Maximilian Beier

Beier has provided 13 goal involvements in the Bundesliga this calendar year (seven goals, six assists).

The only German player with more combined involvements in that time is Deniz Undav (17), and 11 of Dortmund's 12 Bundesliga goals this campaign have been scored while Beier has been on the pitch.