2020 NFL Draft: Top QB Prospects By The Numbers
Taking a closer look and the career statistics of the top quarterback prospects heading into the 2020 NFL Draft
The wait is almost over. The NFL Draft is nearly upon us, with teams facing tough calls as they try to decide who to pick.
Quarterbacks will, as ever, be the main focus. Making the correct call at such a pivotal position - particularly as a rookie contract saves valuable salary cap space to use elsewhere - can change the outlook for a franchise.
Just ask the Indianapolis Colts, who went with Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf in 1998. Or, more recently, the Kansas City Chiefs, who saw the Chicago Bears take Mitchell Trubisky as the first QB off the board in 2017, allowing them to select Patrick Mahomes at 10.
So who are the potential future stars waiting to be picked this year? With the aid of advanced metrics from Stats Perform, here are the leading quarterback prospects in the draft class.
JOE BURROW
After backing up J.T. Barrett at Ohio State for two years, Burrow transferred to LSU, a move that allowed him to blossom as a starter. While 2018 was impressive, last year was spectacular.
Burrow threw an NCAA-record 60 touchdown passes and just six interceptions in 2019, leading the Tigers to victory in the National Championship Game after being named the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner. The greatest ever college season from a quarterback? Possibly, yes. What is undeniable is he altered his career path dramatically.
By the numbers…
Burrow completed 76.3 per cent of his pass attempts as he threw for 5,671 yards in 15 games. His completion rate did not drop too much when in the red zone (71.2), plus he was successful on 58 per cent of his attempts that travelled 20 or more yards in the air.
Crucially, he also prospered under pressure, topping the rankings for passes completed when blitzed by opposing teams (69.6), and excelled in play-action situations (completing 75.2 per cent of his throws). Both numbers bode well for Burrow’s outlook in the pro game, as he seems certain to be selected first by the Cincinnati Bengals.
JUSTIN HERBERT
After two stop-start years to begin life with hometown school Oregon, including a 2017 season that saw him miss games due to a broken collarbone, Herbert soared with the Ducks under Mario Cristobal, the third head coach during the quarterback's college career.
He led Oregon to a 9-4 record in 2018 and, after opting to return for his senior season, improved on that by going 12-2, including a victory in the Rose Bowl when named offensive MVP.
By the numbers…
Herbert passed for 3,471 yards, with 32 touchdowns to six interceptions in 2019. He averaged 8.11 yards per attempt (ranking him 28th in the category) and completed 60.5 per cent in third-down situations.
His red zone ranking for those with over 25 pass attempts is outside the top 10, but he did have a 70.5 per cent success rate on play-action passes. Compared to consensus number one Burrow, he was also better at hitting open receivers (76.6 to 76.3).
TUA TAGOVAILOA
Tagovailoa is the biggest talking point heading into the opening round. The Hawaii-born signal-caller won the National Championship in 2017 with Alabama, then the Orange Bowl the following year as he finished runner-up in the Heisman voting.
However, his junior season was ruined by a dislocated hip suffered against Mississippi State. Surgery was required to repair the damage and, rather than return for one final season with the Crimson Tide, the 22-year-old has opted to turn pro. His lengthy injury record has led to fluctuating opinions over where he should be drafted, despite his impressive numbers.
By the numbers…
Obviously, his 2019 rankings in offensive categories are lower than would be expected due to missed playing time. However, Tagovailoa still had 33 touchdowns to three interceptions, plus was second overall in yards per attempt (11.27).
When it comes to advanced metrics, his 71.2 per cent completion rate on third downs stands out, along with his success at hitting open receivers (84.6). Burrow is the only other of the featured QBs here who can better his 78.5 per cent figure when it comes to well-thrown balls.
JORDAN LOVE
A Californian who went to Utah State, Love claimed the starting job during his freshman year with the Aggies and continued in the role for his final two seasons.
The 21-year-old steered his team to victory in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl, while they lost last season in the Frisco Bowl after being involved in a high-scoring encounter with Kent State. His 2019 campaign saw him throw 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
By the numbers…
Of the quarterbacks in focus here, Love has the lowest completion rate (61.9 per cent) and yards per attempt (7.19). He also ranks outside the top 50 when it comes to red zone completions (52.4) and, unsurprisingly during a turnover-prone campaign, ended with a low well-thrown percentage number of 66.8 per cent.
However, teams will consider he had 32 touchdown passes and only six picks in 2018, while his completion rate was also better that year. NFL teams will need to fathom if 2019 was a sign of what is to come, or more a case of the numbers not telling the true story of Love's potential to perform at the next level.
JACOB EASON
After a knee injury and the subsequent form of replacement Jake Fromm cost him the starting job at Georgia, Eason transferred to the University of Washington, a school with a history of producing quarterbacks (including Hall of Fame member Warren Moon) after the 2017 season.
Required to sit out a year following the move, his one and only campaign with the Huskies saw the team compile an 8-5 record, including thrashing Boise State 38-7 to lift the Las Vegas Bowl.
By the numbers…
Eason threw for 23 touchdowns but ranked 27 for passing yards with his total of 3,132. Still, he was clinical in the red zone, enjoying a 68.3 per cent success rate that is bettered only by Burrow among this group of six prospects.
His well-thrown number - 78 per cent - is on a par with Tagovailoa and while he averaged 8.85 air yards per pass attempt (ranking him 44th overall), plus had a 37.3 per cent success on throws of 20 or more yards, his pre-draft reputation is as a QB with a big arm.
JALEN HURTS
Hurts is a dual-threat quarterback who enjoyed success at the college level with Alabama and Oklahoma. Having started as a true freshman, he was part of the Crimson Tide roster that won the 2017 National Championship, but Tagovailoa ousted him from the job, leading to a move to the Sooners.
In starting all 14 games in 2019, the Houston-born quarterback posted career-high numbers for passing yards (3,851) and touchdowns (32) while still excelling as a runner, leading to a second-place finish behind Burrow in the voting for the Heisman Trophy.
By the numbers…
No college quarterback who threw over 250 passes in the season bettered Hurts' 11.33 yards per attempt. His 47.1 completion rate on balls thrown 20 yards or more offers a counter to questions over arm strength, and it was hardly a surprise to see him ranked inside the top 20 for play-action passes.
The one area where he dips below other leading names in the class is inside the red zone, his completion number sitting at 58 per cent, though his ability to run the ball makes him a scoring threat without the need to put the ball in the air.