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The 10 Biggest Favorites To Win The 2026 FIFA World Cup According To Opta’s AI
Opta’s supercomputer has already picked its favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup — and the ranking includes several surprises.
Artificial intelligence has already picked its favorites
The countdown to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is officially underway and, as always before a major tournament, predictions are beginning to dominate the conversation. This time it was Opta’s supercomputer that delivered its verdict on the national teams with the best chances of lifting the trophy in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
The tournament will begin on June 11 and conclude on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, where the next world champion will be crowned. And while some favorites were expected, the ranking also produced several major surprises.
Belgium and Norway appear as dark horses
The national team of Belgium closes Opta’s Top 10 with only a 2.34% chance of winning the title. Even so, remaining among the favorites reflects the respect still generated by a talented golden generation.
Just above them sits Norway, returning to the World Cup with Erling Haaland leading the way alongside stars such as Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth, and Julian Ryerson. According to the AI model, the Norwegians hold a 3.36% chance of becoming world champions.
The Netherlands and Germany want to return to the top
The historic national team of the Netherlands will attempt to finally win its first World Cup with a generation led by Virgil van Dijk, Tijjani Reijnders, and Ryan Gravenberch. Opta gives the Dutch a 3.84% chance of winning the tournament.
Meanwhile, Germany once again appears among the favorites despite several inconsistent years. The four-time world champions own a 5.66% probability and will attempt to recover their prestige after disappointing performances in recent international tournaments.
Brazil and Portugal dream of glory
The national team of Brazil ranks sixth with a 6.48% probability of winning the World Cup. The Seleção will attempt to extend its record as the most successful nation in World Cup history under new manager Carlo Ancelotti, with stars such as Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, and potentially Neymar leading the squad.
Just above them stands Portugal, likely preparing for the final World Cup of Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career. The Portuguese arrive as reigning UEFA Nations League champions and Opta gives them a 6.84% chance of lifting football’s ultimate trophy.
Argentina and England are fighting to reach the final
Defending world champions Argentina surprisingly sit only fourth in the ranking with a 10.02% probability. La Albiceleste continues to monitor the physical condition of several important players while also waiting for final confirmation regarding Lionel Messi’s participation.
Above them sits England, runner-up at the most recent European Championship, with an 11.01% chance according to Opta. The English national team will try to win its second World Cup and end a drought that has lasted since 1966.
France and Spain are the main favorites
Opta’s supercomputer places France as the second biggest contender for the title with a 12.78% probability. The world runners-up possess one of the strongest squads on the planet and will try to give Didier Deschamps the perfect farewell.
However, the biggest favorite according to the AI is Spain. La Roja tops the ranking with a 16.08% probability thanks to an extraordinary generation filled with talent and stars such as Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri. Spain also arrives as reigning European champions and recent UEFA Nations League finalists.
Complete Opta ranking of favorites
- Spain — 16.08%
- France — 12.78%
- England — 11.01%
- Argentina — 10.02%
- Portugal — 6.84%
- Brazil — 6.48%
- Germany — 5.66%
- Netherlands — 3.84%
- Norway — 3.36%
- Belgium — 2.34%
The 2026 World Cup could become one of the most open tournaments ever
Although Spain appears as the favorite according to artificial intelligence, the reality is that few World Cups have featured this much balance between so many elite national teams before kickoff. France, Argentina, England, Brazil, and Portugal all possess squads capable of going all the way.
And as always in football, the World Cup eventually writes its own story. Statistics, artificial intelligence, and probabilities may point toward certain trends… but they can never truly guarantee who will ultimately lift the most desired trophy in the sport.
