While Napoli have made a decent start to the defence of their Scudetto, there is every chance the Serie A crown could be headed back to the city of Milan this season.

Coming out of the international break, both Inter and AC Milan are in contention at the top of the table, having adapted quickly following managerial changes.

Inter, in their first campaign under Cristian Chivu, went into the hiatus top of the table with 24 points from 11 matches, only ahead of Roma on goal difference.

And their rivals Milan are only a point back ahead of Sunday's matchup at San Siro, with Massimiliano Allegri's side embarking on a two-month unbeaten run.

Here, we preview the game using Opta insights.

What's expected? 

Inter – the designated 'home' side for this derby – are favourites for victory with the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 47.8% of pre-match simulations.
Milan are assigned a 26.2% chance of victory, with 26% of projections being drawn.

In the supercomputer's season predictions, Inter are favoured for the title in 57.8% of simulations, with Milan assigned a 10.8% chance of claiming the crown. Roma (14.1%) are more favoured than the Rossoneri, with Napoli at 10.1%.

But recent editions of the Derby della Madonnina have tended to favour the team in red and black.

The teams met five times last season overall, twice in Serie A, twice in the Coppa Italia and once in the Supercopa Italiana.

Milan went unbeaten throughout those fixtures, winning three and drawing two, having lost the previous six derbies beforehand.

The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against their city rivals since enjoying a 10-match streak between November 2002 and April 2005.

Inter have actually failed to win any of their 11 matches in all competitions against Milan, Juventus or Napoli since beating the Rossoneri in April 2024 (five draws, six losses). 

Milan have also won their last two 'away' derbies against Inter in all competitions (2-1 in Serie A in September 2024 and 3-0 in the Coppa Italia in April 2024), as many victories as in their previous 16 such games (two wins, three draws, 11 defeats).

They could now win three consecutive away games against the Nerazzurri for the first time since the period between October 2003 and April 2005, which included a 3-0 win by default when the second leg of their 2004-05 Champions League quarter-final was abandoned due to crowd trouble.

Martinez chasing Derby della Madonnina greats 

Inter signed off for the international break with a 2-0 victory over Lazio, their fourth successive win in all competitions since losing 3-1 to Napoli at the end of October.

That bad-tempered defeat to the Partenopei – and former Inter coach Antonio Conte – is the Nerazzurri's only loss in their last 12 matches across all competitions.

During that run, Inter have scored 28 goals (2.3 per game) and conceded just seven (0.6 per game), while they are also one of only two clubs – along with Roma – yet to draw this season in Europe's big five leagues. 

This season, Inter have scored at least eight goals more than any other team in Serie A (26, Bologna are second with 18), so Chivu may be minded to keep the handbrake off on Sunday.

Lautaro Martinez and Ange-Yoan Bonny were on the scoresheet against Lazio, with the Argentina international finally reaching 10 Serie A goals for 2025, a somewhat underwhelming tally for a player of his talents.

Nevertheless, he is only the fourth player in Inter's history to have reached double figures for goals in seven different calendar years in Serie A, after Alessandro Altobelli (seven), Benito Lorenzi, and Giuseppe Meazza (both eight).

And Martinez may just be hitting form at the right time, scoring in back-to-back matches in all competitions for the first time since last October, when he netted in three straight matches.

Furthermore, the Derby della Madonnina tends to bring out the best in Martinez, who has scored nine goals in 20 appearances against Milan in all competitions.

He could become just the seventh player to reach double figures in the Derby della Madonnina, for either side. 

Andriy Shevchenko (14), Meazza (13), Gunnar Nordahl, Stefano Nyers (both 11), Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Enrico Candiani (both 10) have previously done so, with only Meazza (12) and Nyers (11) netting more for Inter in these matches.

Will Rossoneri rearguard stay strong?

Allegri's second stint in the Milan dugout got off to an inauspicious start back in August, as his team started the campaign with a 2-1 defeat at home to Cremonese.

But they have steadily built momentum since that loss, going unbeaten in their last 11 games in all competitions (seven wins, four draws). 

This is their longest unbeaten streak since going 13 without losing between April and September 2022, a run that included them winning the Scudetto under Stefano Pioli.

Allegri has repeatedly stated that their ambitions for 2025-26 are to return to the Champions League, with other sides better placed to push for the title.

But if the Rossoneri's strong defensive record holds up, perhaps there may be no limit to their ambitions.

Only Roma and Lazio (six apiece) have kept more clean sheets than Milan's five in Serie A this season, though their total of nine goals conceded have come from 12.8 expected goals against (xGA).

Goalkeeper Mike Maignan has been partly responsible for Milan outperforming their underlying figures, registering a save percentage of 73.5% and preventing 2.3 goals, according to Opta's expected goals on target (xGoT) model.

Milan have shown they can mix it with Serie A's best already this season, only conceding one goal in meetings with fellow top-six sides Roma, Napoli, Bologna and Juventus.

They will need to show similar resistance when they come up against the best attack in Italy.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Inter – Lautaro Martinez

Martinez's goal against Lazio prior to the international break was his 161st for Inter in all competitions.

That moved him into fourth place on the club's all-time scoring list, behind only Meazza (287), Alessandro Altobelli (209) and Roberto Boninsegna (171).

Martinez was also in good form for his national team last week, netting Argentina's opener in their 2-0 friendly win in Angola before assisting Lionel Messi for their second goal.

AC Milan – Rafael Leao

Leao could be the man to offer Milan a spark in attack, particularly if they are able to soak up pressure and hit Inter on the break.

The Portugal international has been involved in seven goals for Milan against Inter in 20 matches in all competitions (three goals and four assists), only registering more against Lazio and Roma (eight apiece) in his Rossoneri career.

Leao could be involved in a goal in consecutive matches against Inter for the first time, having provided the assist for Tijjani Reijnders' strike in the teams' most recent meeting, the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final tie on April 23.