The Numbers Game: Atletico and Real Madrid go toe-to-toe for bragging rights

After just six games of the LaLiga season, there are only two places and two points separating Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.

The two rivals go head-to-head in the final matchday before the extended international break, knowing they get to hold onto their bragging rights for even longer.

Madrid currently hold second place, three points behind leaders Barcelona, having lost just one of their six matches in the competition since Jose Mourinho's return.

They have responded well to their shock loss to Real Betis, with back-to-back wins, including a last-gasp victory over Elche last time out.

But Atletico could leapfrog them in the table if they come out on top, and they also bounced back from their setback in the best way, winning their last two LaLiga matches.

So, who will claim bragging rights in the first Madrid derby of the campaign? Here, we use Opta data to preview the clash.

What's expected?

Atletico lost their last LaLiga match against Madrid 3-2 in March, ending a six-game unbeaten streak against Los Blancos in the process (W2 D4).

Atleti have only suffered two or more consecutive defeats against Madrid in the competition under Diego Simeone on two occasions, though: three defeats in 2013 and two defeats in 2020.

Madrid have won their last two games against Atletico in all competitions.

They have not recorded three or more consecutive victories against them since 2013, when they had 10 consecutive wins (two under Manuel Pellegrini and eight under Mourinho).

However, Madrid have lost three of their last five away LaLiga games against Atletico (W1 D1), after suffering just one defeat in their previous 20 visits to the Rojiblancos in the competition (W12 D7).

But it is Madrid that are backed to come out on top on Sunday, winning 46.6% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match predictions.

Atletico come out on top in 28.3% of those, and there is a strong 25.1% chance that this contest ends in a stalemate.

Simeone looks to get one over Mourinho

Beating Madrid will not come easy for Simeone, who has lost all three of his LaLiga meetings with Mourinho.

The only manager against whom he has managed more matches in the competition with a 100% loss rate (five matches, five defeats) is Xavi Hernandez.

But that does not mean he will not feel confident heading into this match-up, especially given Atleti's recent form.

A 3-0 loss to Athletic Club marked a low point in Atletico's early-season form, as they conceded twice in the opening three minutes of the second half and failed to recover.

They followed that up with a defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League, throwing away a lead at Anfield to lose 2-1, but they have run riot in their two LaLiga outings since.

They beat Real Sociedad 3-0 and followed it up with a 4-0 thrashing of Osasuna, showing they have a good balance between their solid defence and free-flowing attack.

Atletico have the joint-best defensive record in LaLiga (along with eight other teams), having conceded just six goals, but only Barcelona match their league-best three clean sheets.

In total, they have faced 60 shots, with 20 of those hitting the target, but they have slightly overperformed at the back, having conceded 6.8 expected goals against (xGA).

Atletico are on their longest-ever home winning streak in derbies against teams from the Community of Madrid (W6).

But they know it is going to take some hard work if they want to continue that streak against their bitter rivals, especially given they are the only team to have conceded 100% of their goals (6/6) in the second half of their LaLiga matches this season.

Will Madrid spring another late show?

While Madrid have looked very strong so far this season, there have been a few bumps along the road, with that Betis loss being the main one.

However, there could have been a few more if not for some dramatic, last-gasp goals, with an unsuspecting hero coming to their rescue.

Carlos Espi dug them out of trouble after they threw away a two-goal lead against Elche, popping up in the 91st minute to ensure Madrid left with all three points.

Madrid have gained more points (four) than any other LaLiga team from goals scored from the 85th minute onwards this season.

Espi is, in fact, responsible for two of those scored in the 90th minute or later, making him the first LaLiga player this season to score twice in that timeframe.

Kylian Mbappe has obviously been at the forefront of Madrid's success so far under Mourinho, but he has got his attacking singing, with Jude Bellingham also having five goal involvements (three goals, two assists).

Vinicius Junior has also played his role, despite only hitting the back of the net once so far. He has registered a team-high three assists from 13 chances created, with Arda Guler topping that chart (27).

After being involved in just two goals in his first nine LaLiga games against Atletico (two assists), Vinicius has since been directly involved in four goals in his last four league encounters against them (two goals, two assists).

So, can Mourinho keep his team firing?

He has been largely successful against Atletico in his career at Madrid, winning all six of his matches against them in his first spell.

Madrid never conceded more than once in any of those victories, with his side scoring 16 goals across the same period.

Los Blancos have picked up points in eight of their last nine away derbies (W4 D4 L1), and they know anything short of a win could see them lose unwanted ground on Barcelona, even at this early stage of the title race.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Atletico Madrid – Jonathan David

Jonathan David has scored two goals in his first two LaLiga games for Atletico.

He could now become the first player to score in his first three appearances in the competition for the Rojiblancos in the 21st century.

Among Atletico players to score more than once in LaLiga this term, only Alex Baena (28.6%) has a better shot conversion rate than David (25%, level with Giuliano Simeone).

Real Madrid – Kylian Mbappe

Mbappe will reach 500 goal involvements at club level (currently 499 – 377 goals, 122 assists) if he scores or assists in this match.

He has already netted seven times this term, slightly underperforming his 7.9 expected goals (xG).

Mbappe has already had the most shots (40) and efforts on target (22) but is averaging a goal every 77.1 minutes for Madrid in 2026-27.

The Frenchman has also got two assists from 11 chances created, so that landmark looks to be in reach this weekend.