Somehow, someway, Manchester United are in with a chance of winning another trophy.

Despite floundering in the bottom half of the Premier League, the Red Devils have one foot in the Europa League final after an emphatic 3-0 win over Athletic Bilbao last week.

They now welcome Bilbao, whose iconic San Mames Stadium will host the final on May 21, to Old Trafford on Thursday.

Ruben Amorim is looking to become the first manager to reach a major European final in his first season in charge of an English club since Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in the 2020-21 Champions League.

Only one United boss has ever achieved this feat in his debut season, with Jose Mourinho doing so as his team won the 2016-17 Europa League.

"We need to win, and we need to fight to win this competition to give something to our fans and go into the Champions League," said Amorim.

The job is not done yet, of course, and they will have to first ensure there are no slip-ups of epic proportions.

Here, we use Opta insights to preview the second leg.

What's expected?

In the five previous matches between United and Bilbao, there have been 22 goals (4.4 per game), with the Red Devils scoring 12 and conceding 10.

All five of those matches have seen at least three goals scored.

Bilbao have lost seven of their nine previous away games against English sides in all European competitions (W1 D1), although their most recent was a 3-2 win over United in March 2012 in the Europa League.

United have a 48.5% chance of winning the second leg, according to the Opta supercomputer, which ranks Bilbao's win probability at 25.7%.

But when it comes to the overall tournament forecasts, United have a 98% likelihood of reaching the final, and they are also made the favourites to go on and beat either Tottenham or Bodo/Glimt in the showpiece match in Bilbao.

Amorim's side came out with the trophy in 51% of the model's tournament sims. Bilbao hold just a 1% likelihood of turning this tie around and then going on to win the trophy.

An unstoppable force (in the Europa League only)

United's big win against 10 men in Bilbao came as a surprise to plenty, as they put one of LaLiga's best teams to the sword.

Bilbao's success under Ernesto Valverde this season has been built on solid foundations. They have conceded just 26 goals in LaLiga 2024-25, their joint-lowest tally ever after 34 games in the competition in a single season (also 26 in 1984-85).

No team in LaLiga has conceded fewer goals this season, while only Atletico Madrid (31.5) have a lower expected goals against (xGA) figure than Bilbao (33.2).

Yet first-leg goals from Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes - the latter netting twice - have put United firmly in control of this tie.

Despite floundering in the bottom half of the Premier League, United are unbeaten in their 13 Europa League games this season (W8 D5), and could become only the seventh side to reach the competition's final without losing a match en route, after Benfica (2013-14), Chelsea (2018-19), Inter (2019-20), Villarreal (2020-21), Eintracht Frankfurt (2021-22) and Bayer Leverkusen (2023-24).

In fact, United have lost just one of their last 30 home games in the Europa League (W23 D6), a 0-1 group stage defeat to Real Sociedad in September 2022.

They must lose by at least three goals in order to not progress from this tie – the Red Devils have never lost a home game in any European competition by such a margin.

United have scored 31 goals in this season's Europa League – more than any other side. Only in 2002-03 (32) and 2020-21 (34) have they ever scored more in a single campaign in a major European competition.

Big ask for Bilbao

In all major European competitions, only one side has ever won the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie away from home by 3+ goals and failed to progress, with Maccabi Tel Aviv doing so against Olympiakos in the 2023-24 Conference League last 16 (4-1 away win, 6-1 home defeat after extra-time).

Mix that in with the above records that United have in their favour, and it is clear to see that there is a sizeable task facing Bilbao.

They are out to avoid losing both legs of a knockout tie in major European competition for only the third time, after the 1967-68 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup quarter-final against Ferencvarosi TC, and the 2017-18 Europa League last 16 against Marseille.

Valverde's men also suffered a huge blow on Wednesday, with the news that both Williams brothers (Nico and Inaki) and Oihan Sancet will miss Thursday's game through injury.

The latter is the fifth Athletic player to score 15+ goals in a single LaLiga season since 2000-01, after Aritz Aduriz (four times), Fernando Llorente (two times), Raul Garcia (once) and Ismael Urzaiz (once). Sancet has scored twice in the Europa League, too.

But the Spain international has failed to recover from the hamstring issue that kept him out of the first leg and will now sit this one out too.

He has 17 goals in all competitions this term, with both of the Williams brothers scoring 11 apiece. That means Bilbao will be without their three most prolific players.

Losing both of their starting wingers could make things difficult for a Bilbao team that likes to play with pace and dynamism. Bilbao have forced more shot-ending high turnovers than any other side in the Europa League this season (26), while United rank second for this metric (23).

If Bilbao can pull off the comeback without their star trio, this would surely go down as their greatest European night.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes

Fernandes, of course, will be integral to United's attack. He has created a whopping 145 chances in all competitions this term.

Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than the Portugal international (27 – level with Romelu Lukaku), who is also the joint-leading assister in the competition's history (18 – level with Dries Mertens).

Indeed, only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (56) has been directly involved in more goals for a Premier League side in all competitions this season than Fernandes (35 – 19 goals, 16 assists).

Athletic Bilbao - Gorka Guruzeta

Bilbao have a major selection dilemma in attack, with Nico Williams, Inaki Williams and Sancet, who have combined to score 39 of their 73 goals in all competitions this season, all absent.

Guruzeta, who was an unused substitute in the first leg, is their fourth-most prolific player with seven goals to his name this campaign.

He also has five assists, giving him 12 goal involvements in total in 29 starts this term.