The new Champions League format was roundly criticised due to a perceived lack of jeopardy for the top teams.

And to an extent, some of that criticism is true. But heading into the final round of the league phase, there is still plenty to play for.

Two of the teams vying for a place in the top eight and, as such, automatic qualification for the last 16, are European champions Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United, who face off at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday.

PSG, who had to go through the play-offs last season en route to winning the trophy for the first time, lost to Sporting CP last time out, leaving their fate in the balance. 

Luis Enrique's team sit sixth in the standings on 13 points. Newcastle, meanwhile, are seventh, also on 13 points, only behind PSG on goals scored.

A win would see either of these teams through to the last 16, while a draw may be enough, depending on results elsewhere. If there is a loser, then they would almost certainly need to go through the play-offs next month.

Here, we delve into the key Opta insights ahead of a huge game.

What's expected?

PSG and Newcastle's only previous meetings came in the 2023-24 Champions League group stage – they drew their meeting at the Parc des Princes (1-1), after Howe's side had won 4-1 in the first game at St. James' Park.

This will be Newcastle's 10th away game against a French side in Europe; they have only managed one victory from the previous nine (D3 L5): 4-0 v Sochaux in the UEFA Cup in November 2004.

Since the 2013-14 season, PSG have hosted an English side on 16 occasions in the Champions League (W8 D4 L4) – those matches have seen a total of 54 goals scored (31 for, 23 against), at an average of 3.4 per game, and both teams have scored at least once in 14 of the 16 fixtures.

The holders have been backed to win in 61.4% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 data-led simulations.

There is a 19.8% chance of a draw, with Newcastle given an 18.8% likelihood of taking the three points.

Opta's model ranks PSG's chances of reaching the last 16 at 62.3%, while Newcastle have just a 21.1% probability of avoiding the play-offs.

Leaving it late

PSG recovered from their loss to Sporting by bouncing back in Ligue 1 with a 1-0 win at Auxerre, thanks to Bradley Barcola's goal. With Lens losing to Marseille on Saturday, it means the champions are back at the top of the tree in the French top tier.

But after making a fantastic start to their Champions League campaign, they have slipped up as of late.

No team has scored more Champions League goals this season than PSG (20, level with Arsenal and Bayern Munich).

Yet 19 of those goals came across their first five matches, as they converted 18.6% of their attempts (19/102).

In their last two games, they have actually averaged more shots per game (23) than in their first five games (20), but have scored just once from 46 attempts (2.2% conversion).

PSG have lost two of their last four Champions League matches (W1 D1), as many as in their previous 15 combined (W13 L2).

They last suffered consecutive defeats in November 2024, losing to Atletico Madrid and Bayern.

But PSG still have world class talent in abundance, and it does not take much for their star-studded forward line to click into top gear.

Ousmane Dembele can be lethal, and is capable of moments of genius, while Barcola and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are always a menace.

Then there is Desire Doue, the youngster who stole the show in last season's final.

Doue created seven chances against Sporting to become the youngest player Opta has on record to achieve that in a Champions League match since 2003-04 (20 years, 231 days).

He is the second PSG player to do that this season (Lee Kang-in vs Bayern Munich), with only two PSG players creating 7+ chances in a match between 2004-05 and 2024-25 on record previously.

Defence the best form of attack for Howe?

Inconsistency continues to plague Newcastle this season. After beating PSV 3-0 last week to give themselves a real chance of qualifying directly for the last 16, they then had the opportunity to go into the top six in the Premier League.

However, Eddie Howe's team slumped to a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa, ending a four-game unbeaten run in the league.

Newcastle failed to score despite generating chances worth 2.3 expected goals, which is their highest xG tally without finding the back of the net in a Premier League game since a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.8).

While Newcastle failed to find that clinical touch in attack, they were also shorn of their best player: Captain and key midfielder Bruno Guimaraes.

The Brazil international sustained an ankle injury in the win over PSV, and it may be touch and go if he is fit to feature at the Parc des Princes.

Since his first Premier League game for the club in February 2022, Newcastle have not won any of the nine league matches in which Guimaraes did not feature (D5 L4).

Guimaraes has averaged 2.2 defensive line-breaking passes per 90 in the Champions League this season, which is the most by any player with 300+ minutes played, so Newcastle will be desperately holding out hope that he is able to recover in time.

Howe could also be without Guimaraes' compatriot Joelinton, who sustained an injury early in the second half against Villa.

Regardless of that duo's fitness, there is certain to be plenty of onus on Newcastle's defence, up against one of Europe's best attacking teams.

Newcastle have kept four clean sheets in the Champions League this season, which trails only the Gunners and Tottenham.

Only Arsenal (5.0) and Liverpool (6.2), meanwhile, can boast a lower xG against figure than Newcastle's impressive 6.4, and Howe's back line will have to be at its best to keep out a team that has registered the most shots (148) and shots on target (54) in the Champions League this term.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Paris Saint-Germain - Ousmane Dembele

Since the start of 2025, Dembele has been involved in 15 goals in 15 Champions League appearances (nine goals, six assists).

The Ballon d'Or winner has 19 assists in the competition and could be the fifth Frenchman to tee up 20+ goals.

He is aiming to join Karim Benzema (27), Zinedine Zidane (26), Thierry Henry (25) and Kylian Mbappe (24) on that illustrious list.

Newcastle United - Anthony Gordon

Yoane Wissa scored against PSV, while Harvey Barnes and Gordon were also on target, and all of that trio should feature.

Barnes has netted 12 goals in all competitions this season, his best-ever return in a single campaign for Newcastle and only eclipsed overall by 13 goals for Leicester City in 2020-21 and 2022-23.

Gordon, meanwhile, has been directly involved in eight goals in the Champions League this season (six goals, two assists), while the last English player to record more for an English club in a single edition was Raheem Sterling for Manchester City in 2019-20 (nine – six goals, three assists).

Barnes (five) and Gordon (six) are the third set of English team-mates to score five or more goals in the same Champions League campaign after Leeds United's Lee Bowyer (six) and Alan Smith (five), and Manchester United's Paul Scholes (six) and Teddy Sheringham (five), all in 2000-01.