Paris Saint-Germain have been one of the two most impressive teams in Europe this season, and they have their sights set on a place in the Champions League final.

Arsenal, though, stand in their way.

Luis Enrique's PSG team may have lost their unbeaten run in Ligue 1 after a club-record 30 matches without defeat, but their full focus has been on their semi-final tie against the Gunners.

Ousmane Dembele's early goal proved decisive in the first leg at Emirates Stadium last week, and it means PSG have the edge as they welcome Mikel Arteta's men to the Parc des Princes on Wednesday.

With Inter and Barcelona playing out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the first leg of the other semi-final, Opta's supercomputer makes PSG the favourites to go on and win the trophy this season.

PSG, who like Luis Enrique's old team Barca could potentially win a treble this season, come out on top in 42% of the model's tournament simulations. 

But they have never before won this competition, and Luis Enrique is sure to be urging against any complacency, especially given what Arsenal did to Real Madrid in the quarter-finals.

There is only one goal in it, after all.

Here, using Opta insights, we preview Wednesday's huge clash in Paris.

What's expected?

Both PSG and Arsenal are bidding to reach their second European Cup/Champions League final, with the French side doing so in 2019-20, and the Gunners in 2005-06.

When winning the first leg of a European tie away from home, PSG have only been eliminated once (vs Manchester United in 2018-19), while the Gunners have never progressed when losing the first leg at home.

PSG are given a win probability of 45.4%, while their overall chances of progressing from the tie are ranked at a healthy 80%.

Arsenal's hopes of making the final, then, are a slim one in five, though Opta's model does hand the Gunners a 30% win probability for the second leg. A victory, of course, would not necessarily be enough to see them through, with penalties required if the tie finishes level on aggregate.

PSG’s 1-0 win the first leg was their first ever victory in six attempts against Arsenal (D3 L2).

Both of their home games against the Gunners have finished 1-1 (March 1994, September 2016).

Arsenal, meanwhile, have now lost their last two visits against Rennes in 2019 and Lens in 2023.

The Gunners were previously unbeaten in their first 13 away games against French sides in all competitions (W8 D5).

The best around?

Gone are the days of superstar names like Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi at PSG, but in their absence, Luis Enrique has built a formidable machine.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Dembele have provided the star power, but Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Goncalo Ramos are hardly forwards to be scoffed at.

In midfield, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz and Joao Neves have been superb, with the latter making 51 tackles in this season's Champions League, the most by a midfielder in a season since Arturo Vidal in 2014-15 (52). He has also applied 756 high pressures to opponents in 2024-25, over 100 more than any other player.

At the back, Marquinhos has marshalled a defence that includes the brilliant full-back pairing of Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes.

Behind them, Gianluigi Donnarumma has shown his quality in the Champions League. He made some big saves in the first leg and was brilliant in the quarter-finals against Aston Villa.

Using Opta's expected goals on target conceded metric, we can see that the Italian goalkeeper has prevented 1.8 goals in the competition this season, from 42 shots faced (not including penalties or own goals).

PSG are the second-highest scoring team in Europe's top five leagues across all competitions this term, with their 135 ranking behind only Barca's 160.

But Luis Enrique's team have actually registered the highest expected goals (133), while they have had 1,012 shots, 42 more than next-best Real Madrid (970).

Only Bayern Munich (68%) have averaged more possession than PSG (67.5%), but as their shot count shows, it has been a case of possession with a purpose for the French giants.

Gunning for glory

PSG have won three of their last four Champions League home games, netting 14 goals across those three victories.

However, they have lost twice at Parc des Princes this season (vs Liverpool and Atletico Madrid), so Arsenal should certainly not feel all hope is lost, especially considering Arsenal have won each of their last four away games in the Champions League – the Gunners have never won five in a row on the road across all European competition before, though.

Only two teams have ever reached the Champions League final having lost the first leg of their semi-final tie at home, though, with Ajax overcoming Panathinaikos in 1995-96, and Arsenal's rivals Tottenham doing the same against Ajax in 2018-19.

Arsenal's impressive victories over Madrid in the last round were built on solid defensive foundations, and expect that area of the pitch to be crucial again for Arteta.

Of the teams to reach the Champions League quarter-finals, Arsenal have the lowest expected goals against (xGA) figure in the competition this season (11.8). In contrast, PSG's xGA stands at 15.2.

But, Arsenal cannot afford to just sit back. At some stage, they will have to chase the game, and that could be when they are most vulnerable to PSG's blistering counter-attacks.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

PSG - Ousmane Dembele

Dembele was an injury concern over the past week, but on Monday the forward returned to training. 

He has been superb this season, scoring 33 goals across all competitions and chipping in with a further 10 assists. Of players in Europe's top five leagues, only Mohamed Salah (56), Raphinha (53) and Kane (46) have registered more goal contributions in all competitions than Dembele's 43.

Dembele's winner in the first leg was his eighth goal in the Champions League this season – only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has netted more in a single campaign for PSG (10 in 2013-14).

PSG have made 150 line-breaking passes that have broken the defensive line in the Champions League this season, second only to Bayern (156). Of those, 25 have been made by Dembele, the joint-most of any player this campaign.

Arsenal - Declan Rice

As well as completing the joint-most passes on either team in the first leg (50), Rice made the most line-breaking passes in the final third (six).

He leads all Gunners players in the Champions League this season for line-breaking passes leading to both shots (seven) and goals (three).

Rice's performances this season have seen him cement his place among the world's elite midfielders, with his pair of sensational free-kicks setting Arsenal on their way to defeating Madrid in the quarter-final.

Arteta will need another huge performance from the England international on Wednesday.