The Numbers Game: Bayern look to overcome Olise absence versus Arsenal

Going into Matchday 3 of the league stage in this season's Champions League, Arsenal and Bayern Munich are the Opta supercomputer's two favourites to win the trophy.

The predictive model assigns Arsenal a 21% chance of becoming European champions for the first time, while Bayern are given a 15% probability of clinching their seventh continental crown.

And with the teams going head-to-head at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, both sides will face an early test of their credentials. 

Bayern have four points on the board following two meetings with Norwegian opposition, beating Bodo/Glimt and drawing with Viking, while Arsenal are one of nine teams to boast a perfect record after seeing off Napoli and Lille.

But which way will this blockbuster clash go? Here, we delve into the Opta insights to provide a data-powered preview. 

What's expected? 

The Opta predictive model makes Bayern slight favourites for Wednesday's game, even if they will be down a key player following Michael Olise's red card versus Viking last week.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Bayern came out victorious in 46.4% of scenarios, with Arsenal winning 29.3% and the remaining 24.3% finishing level.

In Bayern's last 23 Champions League matches, the only team to beat them by more than one goal was Arsenal, who downed them 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium last November.

Jurrien Timber, Noni Madueke and the since-departed Gabriel Martinelli were on the scoresheet for the Gunners in that game, with Lennart Karl getting Bayern's only goal.

In that match, Bayern managed just eight shots, 14 touches in the opposition box and an expected goals (xG) total of 0.65 – all three of which remain their worst figures in a Champions League match under Kompany.

Historically, however, Arsenal have struggled in matches between these sides.

Indeed, they have lost 53% of their games against Bayern overall (8/15). Among all sides they have faced at least five times in major European competitions, they only have a higher loss percentage against Barcelona (67% – 6/9).

And on home soil specifically, Bayern have only lost one of their seven Champions League meetings with Arsenal (W5 D1), winning the last three in a row, two of which were by a 5-1 scoreline, in November 2015 and February 2017.

Kane's role heightened with Olise out

Olise's red card against Viking last week cost Bayern in the short-term, and the aftereffects of that dismissal are still being felt.

Bayern led 3-2 when Olise received his second yellow card in the 73rd minute, but Viking threw men forward in the closing stages and equalised via substitute Herman Haugen.

The France superstar will now serve a one-match ban against Arsenal, and he leaves big shoes to fill. Since the start of last season, he has created more chances than any other player in the Champions League (44), also making the joint most defensive line-breaking passes (43), and only Lamine Yamal (55) has completed more dribbles than his 54.

Either Arsenal academy graduate Serge Gnabry or promising youngster Karl will likely come in on the right flank, and the good news for the hosts is that they still have plenty of firepower in their ranks, even with Olise missing.

This will be Harry Kane's penultimate game before he discovers whether he has become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001, with the winner of football's most prestigious individual award being announced next week.

And Kane, who marked his 100th Bundesliga appearance with his 102nd goal in the competition on Saturday, has an excellent record against Arsenal.

The former Tottenham hero has scored 15 goals in 22 career appearances against the Gunners, only netting more against Leicester City (20) and Everton (16).

Fourteen of his goals against Arsenal came with Spurs, making him the highest-scoring player in the history of the North London derby, while he has only made more appearances against Chelsea (23) during his career than he has versus the Gunners (22).

Will Arsenal adopt front-foot approach?

Arsenal left it late to defeat Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sunday, with Madueke's deflected strike proving decisive 10 minutes from time.

Although there were a few nervy moments late on, they held on for their 32nd 1-0 win in the Premier League under Mikel Arteta – the joint-most of any team since he took charge in December 2019 (alongside Everton).

But given the firepower available to Bayern, Arteta may need to prepare his team for a very different kind of game.

Arsenal attracted criticism from some over their approach to last season's final versus Paris Saint-Germain, having recorded the lowest possession share by any team in a Champions League showpiece (24.7%, since records began in 2003-04).

However, 73% of Arsenal's high-intensity pressures in the Champions League this season have been in the opposition half (373/508), the highest percentage by any team through the first two matchdays. 

The Gunners also led all teams for high turnovers (25) and shot-ending high turnovers (nine) in the opening two rounds of fixtures, so they certainly have it in them to play proactively.

Arsenal have won each of their last 14 league-stage matches in UEFA's top-tier competition, and only PSG and Real Madrid (28 each) have won more games overall in the competition than the Gunners since their 2023 return (27, level with Bayern).

Topping last season's league-stage table helped Arsenal land a series of kind knockout draws, and defeating a fellow European heavyweight would represent a major step towards replicating that feat. 

To do so, Arteta's men may have to prove they are willing to go toe-to-toe with an elite attacking unit.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Bayern Munich – Joshua Kimmich

Through the opening two matchdays in the Champions League this season, the two players to play the most line-breaking passes in the final third were Arsenal's Martin Odegaard (39) and Bayern's Kimmich (33).

Kimmich also leads all players in the Bundesliga for successful passes into the final third (192) and through-balls (12) this term, while ranking fourth for expected assists (2.68 xA).

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka played a starring role in Arsenal's 3-0 victory over Lille on matchday two, coming off the bench to provide a goal and assist.

Just four of Saka's 14 Champions League goals have come away from home, though two of those were against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain. 

Only two players have ever scored away against all three of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and PSG in the competition – Didier Drogba and Erling Haaland.