The Numbers Behind the European Dream

The Champions League returns next week, and with it comes the debate over who will reign in Europe. This time, the spotlight is on Opta’s data, which calculated each club’s chances of conquering the most prestigious tournament on the planet. The results are striking, with traditional giants slipping down the list and others rising as unexpected contenders.

Newcastle and Inter, Slim Chances

Newcastle United and Inter Milan sit at the bottom with only a 3% chance each. The numbers don’t favor them, but in such an unpredictable competition, surprises are always possible.

Bayern and Real Madrid, Historic Names

Bayern Munich show up with 4%, while Real Madrid, the eternal king of the competition, are given just 6%. They may be low in the percentages, but both clubs know better than anyone how to handle the Champions League.

Chelsea, Barcelona and Manchester City, Still in the Mix

Chelsea come in at 7%, while Barcelona and Manchester City are tied at 8%. Barça are counting on their new generation to step up, while Guardiola’s men look to defend their European supremacy.

PSG and Arsenal, Closing In

The Paris Saint-Germain stand at 12%, still chasing their long-awaited first Champions League, while Arsenal climb to 16%, underlining their return to Europe’s elite.

Liverpool, the Top Favorite

At the very top sits Liverpool with a 20% chance, making them Opta’s clear favorite. Klopp’s team faces the new season with a refreshed squad and the hunger to return to Europe’s summit.

An Open Champions League

Opta’s data makes one thing clear: the 2025/26 Champions League begins with uncertainty and high expectations. Percentages are just numbers, but history shows the trophy often ends up in the hands of those who thrive under pressure and shine on the biggest nights.