The Numbers Game: Inter look to overturn miserable derby record versus Milan

One of the biggest rivalries in European football returns on Saturday, as AC Milan face Inter at San Siro in Serie A.

And the stakes are already high, a mere nine games into the season. Inter's tremendous start has seen them surge eight points clear of Milan, and a victory on Saturday could all but knock their rivals out of the Scudetto picture already.

Ruben Amorim only suffered his first Serie A defeat on Wednesday, but with injuries starting to bite at his Milan squad, the Rossoneri look to be up against it.

But who will emerge with the bragging rights? Here, we delve into the best Opta insights to provide a data-powered match preview.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Inter ahead of this one, with their win probability standing at 46.9%.

Milan triumphed in 28.2% of the model's pre-match simulations, with the remaining 24.9% finishing level.

Cristian Chivu's side are also strongly favoured to retain their title in our 2026-27 season predictions, doing so in 54.4% of simulations. Milan's Scudetto hopes are only estimated at 3.3%, with Roma (15.6%), Como (12.8%) and Lazio (11.8%) viewed as more likely challengers.

However, despite Inter's superiority in Serie A – they have finished above their rivals in eight of the last nine seasons, the only exception being the Rossoneri's Scudetto triumph in 2021-22 – their recent derby record leaves plenty to be desired.

Indeed, Inter have failed to win any of the last seven competitive meetings between the teams (D2 L5, excluding a 1-1 pre-season friendly draw in August).

It is their worst run against their rivals since going 10 without a victory across all competitions between November 2002 and April 2005.

In addition to three defeats in the teams' last four Serie A clashes (D1), Inter's dire streak includes a Supercoppa Italiana final loss in January 2025 and an aggregate defeat in the Coppa Italia semi-finals during the same season.

Prior to this seven-match winless run, Inter had won five straight derbies, all of which took place in 2023, including both legs of a Champions League semi-final tie.

Milan triumphed 1-0 in both league meetings between the clubs in 2025-26, making Chivu just the third Inter coach to lose his first two games against Milan in all competitions, after Giuseppe Meazza in 1947 and Giuseppe Chiappella between 1975 and 1976.

Following a sterling first campaign at the helm in 2026-27, it feels like the absence of a derby victory might be the one thing that is missing for Chivu, who will be highly motivated ahead of this game.  

Injuries leave Milan in tricky spot

Milan and Inter went into Serie A's midweek slate as two of the four teams yet to taste defeat in the division this season.

But while Lazio, Roma and Inter all picked up three points, albeit in unconvincing fashion in the Nerazzurri's case, Milan slumped to their first league loss under Amorim, going down 4-2 at home to Bologna.

Samuel Mbangula's hat-trick condemned the Rossoneri to defeat, as he became just the second player to score an away Serie A treble against Milan, after Gabriel Batistuta for Fiorentina in September 1998.

It was the first instance of Milan conceding four goals in a home Serie A match since January 2023, when they went down 5-2 to Sassuolo.

Amorim said afterwards that his team "looked tired from the first minute", with a series of injuries – particularly in midfield – restricting his options. And Milan had better find some energy from somewhere before Saturday. 

Wednesday's defeat was Milan's fifth in home Serie A games since the start of 2026, only the fifth time in the last 50 years that they have hit that figure in a single calendar year, after 1997 (five), 2012 (six), 2017 (seven) and 2021 (seven). 

Of course, both teams will be playing on their own turf at San Siro this weekend, but the Rossoneri are the designated 'home' side.

Reports suggest Milan are hoping to recover Mario Gila and Diego Moreira from their respective injuries ahead of the derby, and though Adrien Rabiot, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze, Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are all deemed unlikely to return, Amorim said on Wednesday that he may have to "take a risk" with some players.  

Inter look to Thuram to fill Martinez's boots

Inter needed late own goals from Venezia duo Matias Moreno and Redouane Halhal to claim a 2-0 victory at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Wednesday.

And Chivu was far from impressed with his team's display, saying afterwards that he wished he could have substituted everyone.

Nevertheless, Inter's 25 points after nine matches are a new club record at this stage of a season in the three-points-for-a-win era (since 1994-95). 

Even when considering three points per win all-time, this is the joint-best start to a Serie A campaign in their history, alongside 1966-67 and 1988-89.

And unlike their rivals, Chivu's side should be reasonably well-rested after he made five changes to his starting lineup in Venice, with Hakan Calhanoglu, Manuel Akanji, Nicolo Barella, Francesco Pio Esposito, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan all dropping to the bench.

The Nerazzurri's one major fitness issue concerns their captain and attacking talisman Lautaro Martinez, who is likely to be absent once again after sustaining a hamstring issue during a recent Champions League defeat to Club Brugge.

The Argentine has scored nine goals in 21 Derby della Madonnina appearances overall, in addition to providing three assists. He has faced Milan more often than any other club as an Inter player, while he has only provided more goal involvements versus Cagliari (13 – 12 goals, one assist).

His absence is clearly a major blow for the Nerazzurri, but they do have another attacker in tremendous form.

Marcus Thuram has provided at least one goal involvement in 12 of his last 14 Serie A games dating back to a 5-2 victory over Roma on April 5 (11 goals and five assists in total), with only Roma star Donyell Malen (14 goals and three assists) registering more goal contributions since this run began.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

AC Milan – Alphadjo Cisse

With their ranks depleted, Milan will be keen for Cisse to maintain his strong form, after he netted a first-half brace against Bologna.

At the age of 20 years and six days, his double – which took him to four Serie A goals for the season – made him the third-youngest Rossoneri player to net more than twice in the competition during the three-points-per-win era (since 1994-95). 

Only Alexandre Pato (18 years and 147 days on January 27, 2008) and Stephan El Shaarawy (19 years and 332 days on September 23, 2012) did so at a younger age.

Inter – Piotr Zielinski

Zielinski (two goals, two assists) is one of five midfielders to have scored more than one goal and provided more than one assist in Serie A this season, alongside Rabiot, Nico Paz, Romano Schmid and Mattia Zaccagni.

Among these players, only Rabiot (486) has played fewer minutes in the competition this season than the Pole (533).