Arsenal seemed like they would be guaranteed to finish second in the Premier League for much of this season. 

Yet with two games remaining, the Gunners are far from sure of their spot behind runaway champions Liverpool.

In fact, Arsenal cannot even be certain of Champions League qualification just yet.

Mikel Arteta's team welcome third-placed Newcastle United to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, with just two points separating the teams.

A victory for Arsenal would not guarantee second place, but it would be a huge stride towards them doing so ahead of a final-day trip to relegated Southampton.

Newcastle, meanwhile, need four points from their remaining six on offer in order to secure Champions League qualification – Eddie Howe's team host Everton on the final day of the season.

So, there is still plenty on the line as Arsenal look to make the most of home advantage for the final time this season.

Here, we dive into the match with the help of Opta insights.

What's expected?

Newcastle have won five of their last eight meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 52 against the Gunners (D11 L36).

The Magpies have won three games against Arsenal this season, 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the League Cup semi-final. No team has ever beaten the Gunners four times in a single campaign.

Following their 1-0 win at St James’ Park in November, Newcastle are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 1994-95.

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League home games against Newcastle (W17 D2), winning 11 of the last 12 (D1) since a 1-0 loss in November 2010.

But despite their recent woes against the Magpies, Arsenal are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer.

Arsenal came out on top in 47.7% of the model's data-led simulations, while Newcastle were victors in 27.5%.

There is a 24.8% chance of a draw.

Gunning to get back on track

Arsenal are winless in their last four home games in all competitions (D2 L2), losing the last two.

In total, they have not won in five games, having suffered three defeats in that run, though they did earn a respectable draw with Liverpool last time out, despite seeing Mikel Merino receive a red card.

They last had a longer run without a win at the Emirates Stadium between March and May 2021 (six), while they last lost more consecutively in November/December 2019 (four).

Arsenal do, though, have a strong record when it comes to their final home match of a season.

The Gunners have only lost their final home league game in one of the last 27 seasons (W22 D4), going down 2-1 against Aston Villa in 2010-11.

The only time their final home game of a league campaign was against Newcastle was in 1996-97, losing 1-0 thanks to a Robbie Elliott goal.

For all their recent troubles, Arsenal are predicted to finish second by Opta's supercomputer, which rates their chances of doing so at 78.1%.

Ending on a high note

Newcastle have won seven of their last nine Premier League games, though have failed to win either of their last two away from home (D1 L1).

The Magpies beat Chelsea 2-0 last time out, taking a huge stride towards securing a return to the Champions League.

And Newcastle have not lost their final away league game in any of the last six seasons (W4 D2) since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham in 2017-18. Four of these games have been away at London sides (W3 D1), beating Brentford 4-2 last term.

So the omens are good, and in Alexander Isak, they have a world-class forward – the kind of which Arsenal would surely love to have leading their line.

Only Mohamed Salah (28) has scored more Premier League goals than Isak (23) this season, with the Sweden international having netted every 116 minutes on average.

However, Newcastle have been excellent all-round in the final third.

Their tally of 68 goals trails only Liverpool (83), while only Brentford (15.1%) can better the Magpies' shot conversion rate (13.8%).

But the visitors have not finished in second since the 1997-98 season, and Opta's model does not predict that as a likely outcome for their season.

They finish second in just 19.2% of the simulations, and are actually marginally more likely to finish fourth (33.1%) than third (30.8%) – the likelihood Howe's team finish second is just 19.2%.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – William Saliba

Arsenal's defence has again been their bedrock this season. They have kept 12 clean sheets in the top flight and conceded a league-low 33 goals from a league-low 32.6 expected goals against (xGA).

Key to the defensive performance has been the excellent form of Saliba.

The France international could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match. If he plays and Arsenal win, it would equal the most victories for a Gunners player in their first 100 games in the competition (68 by Lauren and Sol Campbell).

Newcastle United – Jacob Murphy

Murphy has been another standout performer for Newcastle, having struck up a deadly partnership with Isak.

The winger has provided 12 assists in the Premier League this season. The only Newcastle players with more in a single campaign are Andrew Cole (13 in 1993-94) and Nolberto Solano (15 in 1999-00).