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The Numbers Game: Man Utd caretaker Carrick in at the deep end with Man City first up
Michael Carrick has now been appointed as Manchester United's caretaker boss, and his first task will be to take on Manchester City.
One of the highlights of Ruben Amorim's doomed spell in charge at Manchester United came in a derby, with Amad Diallo netting a late winner in a 2-1 victory over Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.
That triumph came a month into Amorim's reign at Old Trafford in December 2024, but the man that United had backed as the head coach (or manager, if you ask him) to lead them into a bright new era, did not last.
United sacked Amorim on January 5 and since then have played twice, under the tutelage of interim boss Darren Fletcher.
The former United midfielder oversaw a draw against Burnley in the Premier League and an FA Cup third-round loss to Brighton. This is the first season since 1981-82 that the Red Devils have been dumped out of both domestic cup competitions at the first hurdle.
But after being given the nod ahead of former United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Michael Carrick is now in place for his second stint as the club's caretaker head coach.
Carrick will be at the helm for the rest of the season, and even though United do not have any silverware to play for, they are right in the thick of the race for European qualification.
His first game in charge, though, does not come much bigger, with noisy neighbours Man City rocking up to Old Trafford on Saturday.
What's expected?
This clash sees the Premier League's top two performing teams when it comes to expected goals (xG) go head-to-head.
City (40.2) lead the way, with United's 38.3 xG putting them second.
And with City going through a defensive injury crisis, United should fancy their chances of creating some decent opportunities.
However, United have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League home games against City, including the last two in a row.
They have not gone three home league games without a goal against the Citizens since a run of four between December 1911 and September 1914.
In fact, United last failed to score in both league meetings with their neighbours in the same season back in 1973-74, when they were relegated from the top flight.
City have won more Premier League away games against Man Utd than any other visiting side (nine), while only Liverpool (41) have scored more goals at Old Trafford in the competition than the Citizens (37).
Pep Guardiola's team came out on top in 50.6% of Opta's 10,000 data-led simulations, with United's chances of victory rated at 25.9%.
The likelihood of a draw is 23.5%. Only two of the last six Manchester derbies have finished all square.
In safe hands?
Former Middlesbrough boss Carrick had a three-game spell in charge of United in late 2021 (W2 D1), between the reigns of Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick.
Facing off against second-placed City in a huge derby clash is hardly the easiest of starts, but his team should not be lacking for motivation.
And a good omen, perhaps, is that as a player, Carrick only recorded more wins in the Premier League against Sunderland (16) than he did versus City (P24 W13 D3 L8).
United are on a run of three straight draws in the league, which is their longest such streak since 1992 (five).
Yet City have also drawn their last three top-flight matches. They last had a longer run of consecutive draws in 2009 (seven).
This will be the first meeting between two sides both on a run of 3+ consecutive Premier League draws since February 2001. City were involved in that match, too, losing 1-0 to Tottenham.
United's big problem this season, though, has been hanging onto leads.
Only Bournemouth (16), West Ham (15) and Chelsea (15) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this term than United (14).
If they are able to get their noses in front this time around, then the key for Carrick will be ensuring they show enough resilience to stay the course.
Semenyo's stunning start
City have given up leads in their last two top-flight matches, drawing 1-1 with both Brighton and Chelsea.
Guardiola's current City side may not be the most all-conquering iteration he has built, but their attacking firepower is fearsome.
After his stunning scoring exploits earlier this season, Erling Haaland has actually netted just once in his last six appearances across all competitions, with his penalty against Brighton marking his only goal involvement in that run.
By his incredible standards, Haaland is on something of a drought. But that is where City's terrific supporting cast come in.
Phil Foden has been back close to his best this season. Only against Brighton (eight) has Foden scored more Premier League goals than he has against United (seven), though just one of his seven strikes against them has come at Old Trafford.
Haaland and Foden were City's goalscorers in their 3-0 victory over United at the Etihad in September, and City have other star attackers who will be aiming to make their mark.
Since the start of November, in all competitions, only three players (among those who play for teams in Europe's top five leagues) have registered more goal involvements than Rayan Cherki's 13 (four goals, nine assists).
They are Deniz Undav (16), Kylian Mbappe (15) and Haaland (14).
Cherki scored Man City's second goal in their 2-0 EFL Cup win at Newcastle on Tuesday, although new signing Antoine Semenyo thought he had already made it 2-0 earlier on with what would have been his second of the night.
Semenyo's clever finish from a corner was contentiously disallowed after a long VAR check, but he has nevertheless scored in both of his first two City games following his big-money move from Bournemouth.
The winger, who was a transfer target for United, has already netted at Old Trafford this season, scoring Bournemouth's first goal in a thrilling 4-4 draw in December.
Semenyo featured against United four times for the Cherries, scoring three times. He will be out to continue his red-hot start in what will be his league debut for City.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
Carrick will be buoyed by the returns of Bryan Mbeumo and Amad, both of whom have been away on international duty with Cameroon and Ivory Coast, respectively, at the Africa Cup of Nations.
But having Bruno Fernandes fit will be the biggest boost of all.
Fernandes featured against Brighton on Sunday, assisting Benjamin Sesko's goal.
Only Haaland (12) and Igor Thiago (11) have been involved in more Premier League goals since the start of November than Fernandes (10 – three goals, seven assists).
Fernandes leads the competition overall for chances created following line-breaking passes (17) and line-breaking passes leading to shots (30) this term. The Portugal international also tops the charts for chances created (56) and assists (eight).
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
As already mentioned, Haaland has been short of the form he showed earlier in the campaign, but playing against United could just be the perfect tonic.
Haaland has been involved in more Premier League goals against United than any other City player (11 – eight goals, three assists).
In fact, the Norway international had a hand in all three goals on his last appearance at Old Trafford in October 2023 (two goals, one assist in a 3-0 win).











