The Numbers Game: Carrick eyes more Manchester derby success as Maresca defends perfect record

Manchester City's performances have not been perfect so far this season, but with three Premier League victories in the bag – in addition to a 2-0 win over Porto to kickstart their Champions League campaign – Enzo Maresca will be delighted with their results to this point.

Their 100% Premier League record will be tested on Sunday, though, as Maresca gets his first managerial experience of the Manchester derby at Old Trafford.

United have endured a mixed start to their Premier League campaign, conceding a last-gasp equaliser against Everton last time out to leave them on four points.

They did mark their first Champions League outing since December 2023 with a 4-0 rout of Sabah on Thursday, though, with Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Benjamin Sesko and Lisandro Martinez all scoring.

But who will come out on top when one of English football's most storied rivalries takes centre-stage?

Here, we preview the game with the help of Opta insights.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer favours City going into this game, but not by an overwhelming margin.

Maresca's side are assigned a 45.1% chance of victory, compared to United's 30.6%. The remaining 24.3% of pre-match simulations finished level.

In our 2026-27 season predictions, City are assigned a 26.7% chance of dethroning Arsenal, who remain the title favourites at 55.2%.

United are given a 2.2% hope of winning the title and a 26% probability of qualifying for the Champions League.

Man Utd won this exact fixture last season 2-0, but they have not beaten their rivals in successive home games in the Premier League since the reign of Alex Ferguson, with three straight wins between 2008-09 and 2010-11.

City have struggled in recent derbies, though. They have won just one of their last four Premier League games against United (D1 L2), after winning five of the previous six (L1).

Carrick looks to end 113-year derby wait

When Carrick returned for his second stint in the United dugout in January, his first Premier League match at the helm pitted him against Man City at Old Trafford.

Goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu ensured a morale-boosting 2-0 win, and Carrick could now become only the third Red Devils manager to win both of his first two league games against City, after A.H. Albut in 1895 and John Bentley in 1913.

Since Carrick returned to Old Trafford, United have won nine of their 10 home Premier League games (L1), scoring at least twice in each victory.

They have won their last three despite conceding twice each time, last conceding multiple goals in four consecutive home league games in January 1972.

And that has been a general theme for United this season, as the likes of Mbeumo and Fernandes have offered individual brilliance in attack, while their lack of defensive organisation has left plenty to be desired at the other end. 

Across the first three matchdays of the Premier League season, the Red Devils had the most shots (68) and accumulated the highest expected goals tally (7.3 xG) of any team in the division. In addition, their 19 shots on target were only matched by Man City.

But United have also conceded twice in all three of their Premier League games in 2026-27 – they have only previously started three league campaigns by shipping multiple goals in four straight matches, in 1926-27 (first five), 1930-31 (12) and 1969-70 (four). 

Four points from games against Hull City, Ipswich Town and Everton represents an underwhelming start for United, and if they are to truly challenge at the top of the Premier League, their defensive record simply must improve. 

Some onlookers were surprised that the Red Devils did not overhaul their backline in the transfer market, and Luke Shaw could be in line for his 300th United appearance.

The left-back has started 41 Premier League games in a row, with Harry Maguire the last outfielder to start more consecutive Premier League games for United (72 between August 2019 and May 2021).

Maresca eyes statement result

Man City could win their first four games at the start of a Premier League season for the seventh time, which would be the outright most by any club in the competition's history (Chelsea also currently six).

They have only won the title in two of the previous six instances in which they did so, however (in 2011-12 and 2023-24).

City's struggled at moments against Coventry on MD3, with Gianluigi Donnarumma required to make a couple of huge saves in the second half to preserve the points.

But Maresca's men were far more impressive against Porto, as they dominated the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.32 to 0.28, not allowing their hosts to attempt a single shot in the first half – the first time they had failed to register a shot in 156 first halves since Opta data collection began in the Champions League in 2003-04.

Teenage midfield acquisition Ayyoub Bouaddi won rave reviews for his performance as Maresca left Elliot Anderson on the bench for more than an hour, while Enzo Fernandez got through the full 90 minutes and registered his first assist for City, having been unexpectedly flung into the starting XI versus Coventry following an injury to Nico O'Reilly. 

With City's new arrivals still settling in, Maresca will know just how big a statement his team could make by winning at Old Trafford.

But the Italian has a mixed record against Man Utd throughout his managerial career. During his time as Chelsea boss, the Blues won one game, drew one and lost one versus the Red Devils, with their only victory coming at Stamford Bridge.

City's last two managers, Pep Guardiola and Manuel Pellegrini, both won their first Premier League derby against Man Utd. 

Only two of the previous nine coaches to lead City in the competition (Sven-Goran Eriksson and Kevin Keegan) had done so.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Manchester United – Marcus Rashford

Rashford has scored on his last two Premier League appearances against them, for the Red Devils in March 2024 and Aston Villa in April 2025. That is as many goals as he managed in his previous nine meetings with City.

He has played in 22 Manchester derbies, and an appearance on Sunday would make City the team he has faced most often outright as a United player (also 22 against West Ham).

Rashford has six goals for Man Utd against City, only netting more versus Leicester City (eight) and Liverpool (seven).

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Haaland was on target in City's last league outing, before helping himself to a brace versus Porto. 

The Norwegian will be relishing this derby matchup, as he has eight goals in seven Premier League appearances versus United, including a hat-trick when he first faced them in 2022 – only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) have more goals against the Red Devils in the competition. 

Only two of Haaland's Manchester derby goals have come at Old Trafford, though City have never failed to beat their neighbours when he has been on the scoresheet.