When Aston Villa visited Hill Dickinson Stadium in September, Everton were riding high after back-to-back wins and Unai Emery's team were yet to score a Premier League goal. 

That game finished goalless, though Everton could consider themselves unfortunate. 

They had 20 shots and generated chances worth 2.08 expected goals (xG) to Villa's 0.54 xG.

However, the Toffees only managed to have two attempts on target.

Villa went on to score their first goal of the campaign the following week, in a 1-1 draw against Sunderland.

Since then, Villa have not looked back.

They have won 13 Premier League matches, more than any other team in that timeframe, and have scored 32 goals, second only to Manchester City (36), despite registering just 21.9 xG. Only four teams have conceded fewer goals than Villa (19) in that time.

Everton, on the other hand, have found goals hard to come by, and that performance against Villa back in September probably sums up the Toffees' bluntness up front.

With nine places and 14 points now separating the two teams ahead of Sunday's clash, we have a look at the Opta insights to see who will come out on top at Villa Park. 

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is backing Villa to continue their challenge for the Premier League title, assigning them a 64.4% chance of victory over David Moyes' side. 

Indeed, among its pre-match simulations, only Liverpool (76.3%) have been handed a higher win probability on matchday 22. 

Everton are predicted to earn all three points in just 16.6% of scenarios, while the chances of them taking a point back to Merseyside are rated at 19%. 

This is the most-played fixture in the history of the English top tier, as Sunday's game will be the 216th league meeting between these clubs, and Villa have certainly had the better of it in recent times.

The Villans are unbeaten in all 13 of their Premier League games against Everton since their return to the division in 2019 (W9 D4).

Everton have lost each of their last four away Premier League games against Villa, their longest losing run at Villa Park since between October 1995 and April 2001 (six).

The corresponding fixture last term saw Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran score as Emery's team came from 2-0 down to win 3-2.

Villa have also kept more Premier League clean sheets against Everton than any other opponent (25) and have shut the Toffees out in eight of their last 10 meetings.

Emery hoping not to come unstuck against the Toffees

Emery has faced Everton on six occasions during his time at Villa, winning four of those matches and drawing the other two, and he will be keen to bolster that record here. 

Only against Fulham (six), Brighton and Tottenham (both five) has the Spaniard won more Premier League games than he has versus Everton, during his stint with the Villans.

Indeed, his men have only conceded twice against the Toffees, their fewest against any ever-present side in the division since Emery replaced Steven Gerrard in October 2022. 

And Everton's task is made doubly difficult this weekend, by virtue of the fixture taking place at Villa Park.

Villa have won their last 11 home games in all competitions. They last had a longer run between March and October 1983 (14 straight home wins), while they last had a longer run in the same season between October and February in 1971-72 (12).

In fact, since Emery took over at Villa, only Man City (46), Arsenal and Liverpool (both 44) have more home Premier League wins than Villa's 40.

And they will be hoping to get themselves back among the goals after their goalless stalemate with Crystal Palace last week.

They saw a run of 10 Premier League games in which they scored come to an end, firing a blank for the first time since a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Liverpool in November.

Everton's away-day delight put to the test

Everton so often relied on the hostile atmosphere generated at Goodison Park to get them over the line, but since their switch to Hill Dickinson Stadium, they have often struggled, despite going five games unbeaten on home turf at the start of the season. 

However, their form on the road has been sensational. 

Everton have won three of their last five away games in the Premier League (D1 L1), keeping a clean sheet in four of those five outings – as many as their previous 18 on the road beforehand.

The Toffees are looking to keep three consecutively on their travels for the first time since May 2021 (four under Carlo Ancelotti).

That run has included wins at Nottingham Forest (2-0), Bournemouth (1-0) and Manchester United (1-0), as well as a 0-0 draw with Burnley in a drab affair just after Christmas.

Their only defeat in that time came at Chelsea (0-2), the game in which Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall suffered an injury that has hampered Everton in the past month.

Since Moyes returned to the club just over a year ago, Everton have won nine of their 19 Premier League away games (D4 L6). Their previous nine away wins had come over a 65-game spell (D21 L35) under three different managers (Rafael Benítez, Frank Lampard and Sean Dyche).

However, it has been in the forward areas that Everton have misfired. They have scored just 23 goals in their 21 games this term. Their 23.6 xG ranks 15th in the division.

Everton are reportedly in the market for a striker this month, with Fenerbahce's Youssef En-Nesyri linked with a switch to Merseyside. 

There is no doubt that Thierno Barry and Beto, who is the joint-second poorest performing forward in the Premier League this term when it comes to his goals to xG differential (-2.5), have struggled to offer the kind of threat the Toffees crave.

If they are to turn a decent first half of the season into something greater, Everton need to find more firepower from somewhere.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Aston Villa – Morgan Rogers

Rogers continued his fine recent form with his finish in Villa's 2-1 win over Tottenham in the FA Cup last Saturday, and he could have a crucial role to play again here.

He has scored more goals (eight) and laid on more assists (six) than any other Villa player in all competitions this season, having had a hand in 10 goals (seven goals, three assists) in his last 12 starts. 

Everton – Jack Grealish

Grealish has not kept up the levels he displayed in his first few Everton appearances, yet he still has eight goal involvements to his name this term (two goals, six assists).

The ex-Villa star has created 36 chances from open play in the Premier League in 2025-26, which is a tally bettered only by Manchester City flyer Jeremy Doku (39).