St James' Park has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal recently, but Mikel Arteta's side return to Tyneside on Sunday in need of three points.

Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time equaliser salvaged a point for the Gunners in last week's 1-1 draw with Manchester City, sparing them another defeat to a potential title rival.

But those two dropped points, in addition to a 1-0 loss at Anfield in August, left them five points back of defending Premier League champions Liverpool in the early-season standings.

That gap could be as wide as eight points by Sunday, giving Arsenal's showdown with Newcastle United – who have won the last three of the last four head-to-head meetings between the sides – additional importance.

Can Arsenal get back to winning ways, or will Newcastle extend their terrific record at home to the Gunners? Here, we use Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture.

What's expected?

Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer's favourites ahead of Sunday's game, emerging victorious in 44.6% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Newcastle are given just a 30.4% win probability, with the remaining 25% of simulations ending level.

But recent history is on Newcastle's side. The Magpies have won their last three home games against Arsenal, two in the Premier League and one in last season's EFL Cup semi-finals, without conceding. They last won four home games in a row against them in August 1969.

Under Arteta, Arsenal have lost four away games at Newcastle overall – going down 2-0 in May 2022, 1-0 in both November 2023 and November 2024, and 2-0 in February's EFL Cup second leg. Only against Manchester City (five) have Arsenal lost more away games under Arteta.

All four of those defeats have proven costly to Arteta's ambitions. Arsenal were chasing Champions League qualification in 2021-22 when they lost on Tyneside, ultimately missing out by two points, while they were runners-up in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, only falling two points short on the former occasion. 

Arsenal have, though, only lost one of their last 16 away games in the Premier League (eight wins, seven draws), going down to a Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick against Liverpool on their most recent road trip.

Only twice since May 2022 have the Gunners lost consecutive league games on the road, but in both instances, the second defeat came at Newcastle (in May 2022 and November 2024). 

Howe needs misfiring attack to come good

Newcastle opened their EFL Cup defence with a 4-1 rout of Bradford City on Wednesday, teeing up a last-16 clash with Tottenham.

But in the Premier League, Newcastle have largely failed to fire in the final third. The Magpies have failed to score in three of their five league games so far this campaign, though they have registered four clean sheets in that time.

In fact, the only team to net against Eddie Howe's men in the league this season is Liverpool, who beat the 10-man Magpies 3-2 in August. 

While a period of adjustment was always likely following the British-record sale of Alexander Isak, injuries to new signings Yoane Wissa and Jacob Ramsey have come at a less-than-ideal time.

Nick Woltemade did mark his debut with the winning goal against Wolves two weeks ago, but he was ineffective in last week's goalless draw at Bournemouth, failing to register a single shot from his four touches in the Cherries' penalty area.

Woltemade did display some neat hold-up play but only completed 12 of 18 passes (66.7%) – the joint-fewest of any Newcastle starter alongside goalkeeper Nick Pope.

Newcastle need to offer the German more support on Sunday, and the return of Anthony Gordon, who has served a three-match ban following his red card against Liverpool – should help.

Gordon was on target in Newcastle's 2-1 Champions League defeat to Barcelona last week, and he scored a memorable – and controversial – winner against Arsenal two years ago.

However, only David Brooks (11) has had more shots without scoring than Gordon (10) in the Premier League this season, with Gordon also one of five players to record over 1.0 expected goals (xG) without netting (1.1), despite missing three of Newcastle's five games.

On a more positive note for Howe, Newcastle have allowed the fewest expected goals against (2.55 xGA) in the Premier League this season, with Arsenal ranking second (3.28). The Magpies have also faced the fewest shots (37) and the third-fewest shots on target (13).

Eze and Saka must inject creativity

Arteta's decision to leave Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka on the bench for last week's clash with Man City attracted plenty of criticism, with the Gunners going into half-time 1-0 down and having only registered 0.32 xG and one shot on target.

The England duo were introduced at the break, and it was Eze's sumptuous ball over the top that teed up Martinelli's equaliser. 

That made Eze just the second Arsenal player to provide an assist in both of his first two Premier League home games, after Sead Kolasinac in August and September 2017. The former Crystal Palace man then followed that up with his first goal for the club, netting the opener in Wednesday's 2-0 EFL Cup win over Port Vale.

With Saka also getting over an hour under his belt in midweek after recovering from a hamstring issue, both will surely start in support of Viktor Gyokeres on Sunday.

With 54 goals and 45 assists, Saka is one goal involvement away from becoming the eighth player to reach 100 goal contributions for Arsenal in the Premier League. 

Aged 24 years and 23 days on the day of Sunday's game, he could become the second-youngest player to reach this milestone for the Gunners, after Cesc Fabregas in 2010 (23 years, 237 days).

Though Arteta staunchly defended his approach to last week's clash with City, it remains true that Arsenal could do with an injection of creativity. 

They rank sixth for expected goals (7.39 xG) in the Premier League this season, but of that figure, only 3.1 xG has come from open play. 

That is a lower figure than the 3.7 open-play xG created by pointless Wolves throughout their first four matches and ranks the Gunners 13th in the league. Newcastle have only managed 3.0 open-play xG.

Since the start of last season, only five players have scored at least five goals, supplied at least 10 assists, created at least 50 chances and teed up at least 40 chances from open play. 

Eze and Saka are both among them, alongside Mohamed Salah, Bruno Fernandes and Morgan Rogers. Arteta will hope the Three Lions pair can prove a much-needed spark.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Newcastle United – Harvey Barnes

Barnes’ next goal will be his 50th in the Premier League, having netted 35 for Leicester City and 14 for Newcastle. 

However, Barnes has faced Arsenal more often without scoring than any other opponent in the top flight (12). With Gordon now back available, Barnes must prove his worth to Howe.

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres 

No player has applied more pressures in either the final third (202) or in the opposition penalty area (85) so far this season than Gyokeres.

The former Sporting CP man struggled against City, but he does have three Premier League goals to his name already, with only Erland Haaland (six) netting more this season.