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The Numbers Game: Amorim seeks first back-to-back Premier League wins
Ruben Amorim takes Manchester United to stuttering Brentford on Saturday, looking for consecutive Premier League victories.
Ruben Amorim is looking to do something he has never done before in the Premier League.
After Manchester United's 2-1 win over Chelsea last weekend, Amorim could lead his side to back-to-back league victories for the first time in his tenure.
The pressure on his position eased slightly with that victory, but United's recent torrid away form could cause more trouble in West London.
And if they want to change both of those things, they will need to overcome a Brentford side who are in need of a win, having gone without in each of their last three league outings.
The Bees have endured a stuttering start to life under Keith Andrews, winning just one of their five top-flight matches so far, a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa in August.
Brentford have enjoyed their recent matches against United, though, and will hope that is a good omen ahead of their home double header against the two Manchester sides.
But who will come out on top at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday? Here, we delve into the Opta data to find out.
What's expected?
Over recent years, it has been the home side who have enjoyed more joy in this fixture.
In fact, since United won 3-1 away at Brentford in January 2022, the team playing at home has won six of the seven Premier League meetings between the sides (D1).
The Bees have won two of their last three home league games against United (D1), as many as their first six such matches versus the Red Devils beforehand (W2 D1 L3).
That run includes a 4-3 victory in May, meaning United could lose back-to-back league meetings with Brentford for only the third time.
The last times that happened, though, were in the second tier back in December 1934 and the top-flight in February 1937.
And it is Brentford who are expected to come away with three points on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 48% chance of victory.
United emerged victorious in 26% of the pre-match simulations, while a draw is just as likely.
Brentford seeking defensive solidity
Brentford's transition under Andrews has not been overly smooth so far, with only the one Premier League win to show, though they have proven they know how to win.
As well as the league victory over Villa, Brentford also beat them on penalties in the EFL Cup third round to progress, having also won 2-0 against Bournemouth in the previous round.
However, they have picked up just four points in the league this season (W1 D1 L3), their lowest-ever tally after five Premier League matches to start a season, and hover just above the relegation zone heading into matchday six.
Their biggest worry so far has been a shaky defence, and they are not helped at the other end by their tally of just 41 shots, the lowest total in the top-flight so far.
Brentford have conceded 10 goals in their five Premier League games this season, their most at this stage of a league season since 2003-04 in the third tier (also 10).
Only Burnley (95) have faced more shots so far than the Bees (70), who have let in more goals than expected, having only conceded 6.8 xGA.
It has cost them, too. Already, Brentford have dropped eight points from winning positions, scoring the first goal in four games but winning only one (D1 L2).
It has happened in each of their last three matches, losing 3-1 to Fulham last time out, though one positive for Brentford is that they are unbeaten on home soil (W1 D1), having fought back to earn a 2-2 draw with Chelsea in their last such match.
At the Gtech, Brentford have won three of their last four league games (D1 L1), and the last time they failed to score at home was back in early April, during a 0-0 draw with Chelsea.
Can Amorim go back-to-back?
Man Utd's win over Chelsea last weekend was a vital one for Amorim, who had seen his position come under increasing pressure after a thumping Manchester derby defeat.
And that victory meant that United won consecutive home league games within the same season, under the same manager, for the first time since December 2023 under Erik ten Hag.
But, as previously mentioned, the Red Devils have never won consecutive Premier League matches under Amorim, something he will be desperate to change, though they have not had much joy on the road as of late.
United are winless in their last seven away matches in the top-flight (D2 L5) since a 3-0 win at Leicester City in March. They last had a longer run without an away win between March and October 2019 (eight games).
And they have lost 15 of their last 24 visits to London (W3 D6), after a run of 13 games without defeat in the capital between February 2020 and January 2022 (W8 D5).
In order to change that, Amorim will need to get his side firing on all fronts, having shown promise in front of goal this term without much reward.
United have had the most shots in the Premier League this season (81) and are averaging 16.2 shots in 2025-26, up from 13.9 under Amorim in 2024-25. Their expected goals (xG) per game is also up at 2.0 compared to 1.3 last season under him.
However, they have netted just six times in the league this term, with two of those coming via own goals.
Bruno Fernandes will be expected to have a say on Saturday, having marked his 200th Premier League appearance last weekend with his 100th United goal.
He is United's leading chance creator with 15 this term and has made the most line-breaking passes into the opposition penalty area this season (eight) and also ranks first for line-breaking passes that have led to a shot (eight).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Brentford – Mikkel Damsgaard
Mikkel Damsgaard took little time to mark his return to the side against Fulham, giving his side an early lead.
That goal saw him become the eighth different Brentford player to hit 15+ goal involvements in the Premier League for the club (three goals, 12 assists), with that his first goal in the competition since December 2024 (v Aston Villa).
Despite only playing three games so far in the league, Damsgaard has created the most chances (five), having also played 27 crosses, another team high, though he is yet to record an assist from 0.6 xA.
Manchester United – Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo is making his return to Brentford following his summer move to United, and he will be looking to add to the one league goal he has scored so far.
Only Erling Haaland (21) has had more shots in the top-flight this season than Mbeumo (15), with that the most shots by a player in their first five league games for United since Antony in 2022 (18).
For United, Mbeumo also tops the charts for touches in the opposition box (30) and crosses (26), while only Fernandes (2.8) has generated more xG than the Cameroon international (1.9).