A Goldman Sachs report on the 2026 FIFA World Cup once again places Argentina at the center of global analysis. While Spain and France emerge as the main favorites for the title, the Albiceleste remain among the top contenders with an estimated 14% chance of winning, maintaining their status as serious challengers despite a very different context from Qatar 2022.

BELIEF IN BACK-TO-BACK GLORY

The statistical model ranks Spain as the leading favorite with around 17%, followed by France at 14% and Argentina also close behind at 14%, keeping them firmly within football’s elite tier.

However, the analysis also highlights a shift compared to the previous cycle. Unlike the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Argentina no longer enters the tournament as the overwhelming global favorite or the team to beat, but rather as a strong contender in a highly competitive field.

NOT THE SAME ARGENTINA FROM QATAR 2022

The report also reflects a natural transition period. With Lionel Messi now in the veteran stage of his career and the absence of key figures such as Ángel Di María, Argentina faces a generational challenge without losing its competitiveness.

Even so, the model values the continuity of Lionel Scaloni’s project, which preserves the core of the World Cup-winning squad and a well-established tactical identity. Players such as Emiliano “Dibu” Martínez, Rodrigo De Paul, and Julián Álvarez remain key pillars of the team.

BRAZIL TRAILS BEHIND

Behind the leading group, Brazil sits at around 11%, followed by England (8%), Germany (7%), Portugal (6%), the Netherlands (5%), Italy (4%), and Belgium (3%), completing the top 10.

In this context, Argentina does not arrive with the same emotional favoritism it carried in 2022, but still with strong statistical and footballing arguments to remain one of the main contenders for back-to-back World Cup titles.

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