The Mathematical Model Predicting Mexico’s Role in the FIFA World Cup

Just days before the start of the FIFA World Cup, one of the most recognized mathematical models used to forecast international tournaments does not have encouraging news for Mexico.

The model was developed by Joachim Klement, a financial analyst and soccer enthusiast whose methodology gained attention after correctly predicting the champions of the last three World Cups. For the 2026 edition, his forecast points to the Netherlands as the eventual tournament winner, while also outlining a difficult path for one of the host nations.

An Uphill Battle for El Tri

The Mexico National Team, led by head coach Javier Aguirre, enters this World Cup looking to regain prominence after the disappointment of Qatar 2022, where it was eliminated in the group stage for the first time since Argentina 1978. Playing at home has also generated enormous expectations among supporters, who dream of seeing El Tri surpass its best-ever performance at a World Cup.

So far, Mexico’s best results came in 1970 and 1986, when the team reached the quarterfinals. For this tournament, the goal is to break through that barrier and take advantage of home-field support to deliver a historic campaign.

However, Klement’s model is far from optimistic.

Mexico shares a group with South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa. Its opening match is scheduled for June 11 against Bafana Bafana at the Estadio Azteca, a venue expected to provide an unforgettable atmosphere. On paper, the advantage of playing at home makes El Tri one of the favorites to finish atop the group.

The Simulation Predicts an Early Exit

Still, the mathematical simulation projects a different outcome. According to Klement’s calculations, South Korea would finish first in the group, while Czechia would claim second place. Mexico would advance only as one of the best third-place teams.

That scenario would set up a high-risk matchup in the next round. According to the projection, El Tri would face Belgium in the Round of 32, where its World Cup journey would come to an end.

Klement has been clear that his results should not be viewed as definitive predictions. The analyst himself acknowledges that soccer contains too many variables that are impossible to calculate and that unexpected moments often reshape the course of a tournament.

Statistics may not be on Mexico’s side, but World Cups are not won on a computer. The fate of El Tri will depend on what happens on the field and on its ability to seize a historic opportunity in front of its home fans.