A model born as an experiment

Many fans rely on superstition or intuition to imagine the next World Cup champion, but Joachim Klement, a German economist and strategist, developed a mathematical model that combines variables such as FIFA rankings, economic indicators, population and other statistical factors to simulate the performance of national teams.

What began as an almost ironic exercise to demonstrate the limits of economic forecasting eventually became one of the most intriguing stories surrounding the FIFA World Cup.

Klement never claimed to possess an infallible formula, but his results started drawing attention once the model began producing accurate predictions.

Germany 2014: the first major success

The first major test arrived at Brazil 2014. Before the tournament, the model identified Germany as the favorite to win the FIFA World Cup.

At the time, it did not seem like an outrageous prediction, but there was far from universal agreement. Germany ultimately validated the forecast with a historic campaign marked by the unforgettable 7-1 victory over Brazil and the triumph against Argentina in the final.

That success was initially viewed as coincidence, although Klement had already shown that his method could compete with traditional football analysis and betting markets.

France 2018 and Argentina 2022 confirmed the trend

The surprise grew even further at Russia 2018. Klement once again got it right and pointed to France as the future champion.

The team led by Kylian Mbappé lifted the trophy and strengthened the German economist’s reputation.

Four years later came Qatar 2022, where expectations were even higher. Rather than backing away, the model once again produced a clear answer: Argentina.

La Albiceleste, led by Lionel Messi, claimed the title after one of the most memorable finals in history against France. With that, Klement achieved a record few statistical models can boast: three consecutive World Cups correctly predicted.

The champion he now sees for 2026

With the World Cup in Mexico, the United States and Canada drawing closer, Joachim Klement put his formula back to work.

According to his calculations, the Netherlands would become the next world champion, even projecting a final against Portugal.

The economist himself has insisted that his predictions should be approached with caution and critical thinking. However, after correctly predicting Germany 2014, France 2018 and Argentina 2022, every new forecast from Klement inevitably sparks debate and excitement among football fans and analysts around the world.