Predictions for the upcoming FIFA World Cup are already making headlines. Analysts, former players, and sportsbooks have all shared their forecasts, but now artificial intelligence has entered the conversation. French consulting firm AVISIA, which specializes in data analysis and artificial intelligence and regularly collaborates with Foot Mercato, has released a study projecting each national team's chances of winning the world title.

The model developed by the company does not rely solely on recent results. The research incorporates thousands of statistical data points related to each team's offensive and defensive performance, success in international competitions, player fitness levels, squad depth, market value, and the individual performances of key stars. It also considers advanced metrics such as expected goals (xG), chances created, ball recoveries, and efficiency in both penalty areas.

France and Argentina Lead the Projections

After processing all of this information, the model identified France and Argentina as the leading favorites to lift the trophy on July 19 in New Jersey. Both national teams were assigned a 21% probability of becoming world champions.

In the case of France, the AI highlights one of the tournament’s most powerful attacks, led by Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, and Michael Olise. The squad also boasts a solid defense and fitness levels that the study ranks among the best of all participating nations.

Meanwhile, Argentina remains a top contender thanks to the collective strength built by head coach Lionel Scaloni. The model emphasizes the organizational abilities of Lionel Messi, the team's cohesion, and one decisive factor: the effectiveness of goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez in high-pressure situations.

Spain, Brazil, and Portugal Round Out the Main Contenders

Close behind is Spain, with a 20% chance of winning the title. The Spanish side stands out for its possession-based style, the quality of its midfield, and the leadership of Rodri, widely regarded as one of the best players in the world in his position.

Next come Brazil and Portugal, both with a 19% probability. In Brazil’s case, the AI values the tactical balance implemented by coach Carlo Ancelotti and the quality of stars such as Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha. Portugal, meanwhile, earns high marks for a midfield featuring Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Vitinha, as well as the reliability provided by goalkeeper Diogo Costa.

Finally, England appears with a 12% chance of lifting the trophy. Although the squad includes elite talents such as Harry Kane and Declan Rice, the model believes the team's overall fitness level falls short of some of the other leading contenders.

AI Also Acknowledges Its Limitations

However, even the most advanced systems have limitations. Artificial intelligence can analyze data and trends, but it cannot fully account for human factors such as locker-room chemistry, leadership, the pressure of knockout matches, or the emotional state of players. Even so, according to the numbers, France and Argentina enter the FIFA World Cup as the leading favorites to claim football’s biggest prize.

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