Who’s the favorite to win the Club World Cup?
Only four teams remain, and they’re all dreaming of glory. Three European giants, one South American survivor, and a crown that only one can claim. Opta’s big data has already made its prediction… but the games still have to be played.
With just four teams left, the 2025 Club World Cup is entering its decisive phase. Real Madrid, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain, and Fluminense are the semifinalists fighting for the most global title in club football. And while the ball hasn’t rolled yet in these final rounds, big data has already done the math: according to Opta, one team stands out as the favorite… but it’s not who most would expect.
Fluminense
The only South American team left standing comes in as the tournament’s surprise package. Fluminense knocked out Inter Milan in the Round of 16 and then got past a strong Al-Hilal to reach the final four. Still, artificial intelligence isn’t betting on another upset: Opta gives them just a 2.42% chance to lift the trophy. Could that be just the spark they need for one more shock?
Real Madrid
Europe’s most decorated club reached the semifinals after taking down two heavyweights: Juventus and Borussia Dortmund. But despite their rich history and winning DNA, the data isn’t convinced. Real Madrid has just a 24.63% chance of being crowned champions, according to Opta. Far from the top favorite, Los Blancos arrive hungry… and as always, under pressure.
Chelsea
Enzo Maresca’s team has been quiet—but deadly. They cruised past Benfica, then took down the always-tough Palmeiras, and now find themselves among the top contenders. Their path in the bracket and strong performances have earned them a 34.08% chance of lifting the trophy, even ahead of Madrid.
Paris Saint-Germain
According to the data, the top favorite is PSG. Luis Enrique’s side eliminated Inter Miami, then shocked everyone by knocking out Bayern Munich. And while their semifinal against Madrid feels like a final in itself, Opta still gives them the edge: a 38.88% chance to claim their first-ever Club World Cup title.
Football doesn’t follow percentages
Stats can point the way—but they don’t decide matches. Fluminense, Madrid, Chelsea, and PSG will need to fight for every ball, every minute, if they want to reach the top. Because in football, the only stat that really matters… is the final whistle.
