The World Cup qualifiers are entering their final stretch, and not every powerhouse is cruising toward safety. The road to the 2026 World Cup has brought surprises, setbacks, and plenty of drama — with several historic nations now standing on the brink. As the race tightens, some big names may end up watching the world’s biggest tournament from home.

Sweden: A Fading Generation

Only mathematics keep Sweden’s hopes alive. With just one point from four matches, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side needs a miracle to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. They must defeat Switzerland and Slovenia, hope Kosovo loses twice, and overturn a four-goal deficit.

Despite having attacking talent, Sweden hasn’t qualified for a major tournament since Euro 2020, and that drought looks set to continue.

Italy: Haunted by the Playoffs

The Azzurri are desperate to end their longest exile from the World Cup stage. After missing the 2018 and 2022 editions, Gennaro Gattuso’s men have won three of their first four qualifiers — yet they still trail an unbeaten Norway side.

To top the group, Italy must win their remaining three games — including a decisive clash with Norway — and hope their rivals drop points against Estonia. If not, they’ll face another dreaded playoff, where painful memories of defeats to Sweden and North Macedonia still linger.

Nigeria: Crisis for the Super Eagles

It’s looking bleak for Nigeria. Despite a recent win over Lesotho, they sit third in Group C, behind South Africa and Benin, with one match left to play.

Even if they beat Benin, they could still miss out if South Africa defeats Rwanda. Failure to qualify would mark a second consecutive absence for the Super Eagles, who had previously reached six of the last seven tournaments.

Costa Rica and Cameroon: No Room for Error

In CONCACAF, Costa Rica has made life difficult despite an easier path following the automatic qualification of the North American hosts. With only one win in four matches, they trail Honduras by two points and must win both remaining fixtures to avoid the playoffs.

In Africa, Cameroon finished second in their group behind Cape Verde, despite a 4-1 victory earlier in the campaign. They now face the daunting path of the continental playoffs — and possibly the inter-confederation round — to keep their World Cup dream alive.

Saudi Arabia: Pressure Mounts

Having qualified for six of the last eight World Cups, Saudi Arabia faces a decisive moment. Hervé Renard’s squad must beat Iraq to progress, after finishing third in their group.

A defeat would send them into another playoff, and potentially the inter-confederation stage. For a country investing heavily in football’s global expansion, missing out on 2026 would be a major setback.