Boca Juniors kicked off their 2025 Club World Cup campaign with a 2–2 draw against Benfica, letting a two-goal lead slip away. Now, Miguel Ángel Russo’s team needs to pick up points in their next two Group C games to stay alive. Their toughest test will come against Bayern Munich on Friday, June 20 at 9:00 PM ET, at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

That match will be heavily influenced by what happens earlier in the day, when Benfica takes on Auckland City at 12:00 PM ET. If the Portuguese side wins, Boca will likely need at least four points from their remaining two games. That means they’ll need to beat Bayern, or if they lose, hammer Auckland City and hope Benfica’s goal difference doesn’t outpace theirs.

Math, goals, and fair play

To put it simply, Boca must finish with more points than Benfica, or at least match them and have a better goal difference. In the best-case scenario, the Argentinians pull off a shock win against Bayern, putting them in a strong spot heading into the final game versus Auckland City, the group’s weakest team. Even if Boca loses to the German giants, they’re still alive—as long as it’s not by a big margin and they crush Auckland in the last round.

According to FIFA rules, if teams are tied on points, the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head result, followed by goal difference, goals scored, and then fair play. So even a narrow loss to Bayern won’t necessarily knock Boca out—but the goal tally will be crucial. A big defeat could end it all, while a tight result keeps the door open.

Pressure and prize money

On top of sporting pride, there’s serious money on the line. Boca Juniors has already secured more than $16 million USD in prize money and could earn another $7.5 million by reaching the Round of 16. With qualification still within reach, the team must stay sharp in front of goal, tighten up defensively, and keep the calculator handy—this group might come down to the last kick.