Botafogo’s 1–0 win over Paris Saint-Germain has left Atlético Madrid hanging by a thread at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Diego Simeone’s squad now has no choice but to beat the Brazilian side by at least three goals in their final group game — or hope that PSG slips up against the Seattle Sounders and find a way to top their result. That opening 4–0 loss to the Champions League winners has become a heavy burden that’s proving tough to shake off.

The 3–1 win over the Sounders, with a brace from Pablo Barrios and a goal by Axel Witsel, gave the team a much-needed boost. But hours later, Botafogo shocked PSG with a goal from Igor Jesús, throwing everything back into chaos. Now, Atlético is tied with PSG on three points, but trails on goal difference. Only a convincing win will help them edge ahead in the tiebreakers.

Three-way tie, math gets tricky

According to FIFA’s official rules, if three teams are level on points, head-to-head results are considered first, then goal difference, and finally total goals in those matches. That means if Atlético wins by three goals, they’ll jump ahead of Botafogo on goal difference (−1 vs −2), assuming PSG beats the Seattle Sounders, as expected.

The margin for error is razor-thin. If PSG draws, Atlético must win. If PSG loses, a draw might be enough for the Spaniards. But if both teams win and Atlético doesn’t hit the goal margin needed, they’re out. Still, Simeone’s men have shown they’re capable of big wins: 4–0 over Girona, 4–0 against Real Sociedad, 4–1 over Betis, and 3–0 vs Rayo Vallecano.

Breaking Botafogo’s streak won’t be easy

It won’t be a walk in the park. Botafogo are flying, with five straight wins and only one loss in their last ten games. They haven’t lost by three goals since December 2024, when Pachuca beat them 3–0. Their coach, Renato Pavia, made it clear: “Atlético is a top team, built by Diego over many years. We want to make this all worth it by winning the next match.” The pressure’s all on the Spanish side, who need a flawless night to avoid a group-stage exit that would deal a massive blow to their international ambitions.