Nigeria remain on the edge in the African Qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup. After a 1-1 draw against South Africa, the Super Eagles sit on 11 points, level with Benin and Rwanda, but six points behind the group leaders South Africa, who already have one foot in the tournament.

How did the match against South Africa unfold?

The game started badly for Nigeria, who conceded an early own goal from William Troost-Ekong before the half-hour mark. Just before halftime, however, Calvin Bassey equalized with a powerful header from a corner to restore hope for the Super Eagles.

The second half turned into a tactical battle, with both teams creating chances but failing to find a winner. The result was particularly painful for Nigeria, as it allowed South Africa to extend their lead at the top with 17 points, while Finidi George’s men stayed on 11, leaving their hopes of direct qualification hanging by a thread.

What is the current Group C standings?

After eight matches played, Nigeria sit second on 11 points (2 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss), tied with Benin and Rwanda. The problem is that South Africa lead the way with 17 points.

Only group winners qualify directly for the World Cup, while runners-up must try their luck in the playoff round.

What does Nigeria need to qualify?

This is where the challenge becomes nearly impossible. As analyst Nahuel Lanzón put it, Nigeria still have a chance—but it’s “like winning the lottery. Twice.”

• They must win and score heavily in their last two matches against Lesotho and Benin.
• South Africa must lose both games.
• Rwanda must not surpass them on goal difference.

If South Africa manage even a single win or draw, Nigeria would likely finish second with 17 points, meaning their only path would be the playoff. But even that scenario looks bleak: most projected runners-up are expected to finish with more than 17 points.

For example, nations like Gabon or Ivory Coast already sit above that tally in their groups. Nigeria would need three or more external results to go in their favor, something that, barring a miracle, looks almost unreachable.