Bayern Munich get the 2025-26 Bundesliga season under way on Saturday, as the champions welcome RB Leipzig to the Allianz Arena.

Having seen their 11-year reign over the German game ended by Bayer Leverkusen in 2023-24, Bayern reclaimed the Meisterschale in dominant fashion in 2024-25, finishing 13 points clear of Xabi Alonso's side. 

And with Leverkusen losing Alonso to Real Madrid and selling key players Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka, Lukas Hradecky and Jonathan Tah – the latter to Bayern – their spot as Germany's foremost challengers could be under threat.

Leverkusen are not the only side to lose talent, with Eintracht Frankfurt selling Hugo Ekitike to Liverpool for €90m after finishing third last season. They have rebuilt after selling star strikers in the past, though, and Jonathan Burkardt is one to watch this campaign.

Borussia Dortmund are expected to do better after sneaking into the top four on the final matchday of 2024-25, and in Niko Kovac, they have a former Bundesliga-winning coach who would love to get one over on his old team Bayern.

Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Mainz and Freiburg will all expect to be in contention for European qualification, and if the Opta supercomputer is to be believed, that area of the table could offer plenty of thrills and spills.

There are other stories to look out for, too, with Hamburg returning to the big time after seven years in the wilderness. bringing intrigue to the relegation battle.

But how will it all shake out? The Opta supercomputer has simulated the season 10,000 times, and an exciting campaign looks to be in store.

Bayern's title in safe hands?

As it turned out, Bayern's third-place finish in 2023-24 was only a temporary blip. They coasted to the title last season and have now won 12 of the last 13 editions of the Bundesliga.

Before that run began, four different clubs won the title within the space of six years, with Stuttgart, Wolfsburg and Dortmund – who won successive crowns under Jurgen Klopp – also tasting glory. 

But the Bundesliga is a very different place now, and it is no surprise that Bayern are huge favourites to top the pile again in 2024-25, doing so in 52.9% of the supercomputer's simulations. 

Luis Diaz and Tah are Bayern's headline arrivals in the transfer window, joining from Liverpool and Leverkusen, respectively. 

Diaz scored the winner in their Franz Beckenbauer Cup victory over Stuttgart on Saturday and appears to be a perfect fit for Kompany's high-pressing style. 

The Colombian won possession in the final third more often than any other Liverpool forward last season (147 times in all competitions), but he also provided plenty of quality in the final third.

He is coming off the back of the best goalscoring campaign of his career in Europe's top five leagues (17 goals in all competitions), while he averaged 2.05 open-play chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Michael Olise, who will likely play a number 10 role while Jamal Musiala is sidelined with a fractured fibula, was the only Bayern player to better that figure in the Bundesliga (2.88).

Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane have departed, while this will be Bayern's first season without Thomas Muller in their first-team squad since 2007-08. Having made 756 appearances for the club, more than any other player, he has joined the Vancouver Whitecaps in MLS.

Muller registered 15 goal involvements (eight goals, seven assists) in his final season in Bavaria despite being limited to just 19 starts, but with Harry Kane in their ranks, Bayern will be confident of maintaining their excellent attacking record.

Since joining Bayern in 2023, Kane has scored 86 goals from 70.7 expected goals (xG) in all competitions, the best overperformance of any player from Europe's top five leagues. He is eyeing a third Bundesliga Golden Boot in 2025-26, which would leave Robert Lewandowski and Gerd Muller as the only players with more (seven each).

But if Bayern do slip up, who is best placed to profit? Erik ten Hag is the man tasked with overseeing Leverkusen's rebuild, and they are given a 16.9% chance of winning the title, slightly ahead of Borussia Dortmund's 15.8%.

In Wirtz, Xhaka, Frimpong and Tah, Leverkusen have lost four of their top five players for attacking sequence involvements in the Bundesliga last season, with only left-back 
Alex Grimaldo (third) and Piero Hincapie (fifth) remaining from that group. 

It is no wonder, then, that Ten Hag has already stressed the need for patience. Leverkusen have made a couple of eye-catching signings in the form of Ibrahim Maza and Malik Tillman.

The former has been plucked from Hertha Berlin after completing the second-most dribbles in the second tier, while with Hertha Berlin last season (75), while United States international Tillman scored six goals from outside the area in his final Eredivisie campaign with PSV – no player managed more across Europe's top 10 leagues.

Leverkusen have also kept hold of Patrik Schick, who scored 21 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances last season, registering a league-high xG overperformance of 8.3 (12.7 xG). 

Dortmund also have a clinical striker in their ranks, in the form of Serhou Guirassy. The Guinea forward matched Schick's Bundesliga output last term, while he also finished level with Raphinha as the joint-leading scorer in the Champions League, with 13 goals.

BVB have snuck into the Champions League in each of the last two campaigns, taking advantage of the Bundesliga getting a fifth spot in 2023-24, then overhauling Freiburg to finish fourth on the final day of 2024-25.

They had been outside the top four for 30 successive matchdays before that dramatic final day, but hopes are high that Kovac's first full season will bring an improvement. 
Having conceded 1.72 goals and 1.35 xGA per Bundesliga game during the ill-fated reign of Nuri Sahin, Dortmund saw those figures drop to 1.21 and 1.19 after hiring Kovac.

Jobe Bellingham is Dortmund's standout addition after he helped Sunderland return to the Premier League, but with little else done in the transfer market, their main concern will be consolidating with a top-three finish, which they achieved in 54.7% of our simulations.

Battle for fourth looks wide open

Bayern (91.6%), Leverkusen (69.5%) and Dortmund (68%) all achieve Champions League qualification in the vast majority of simulations, but a tight battle for fourth is anticipated.  

Opta's predictive model gives six other clubs more than a 10% chance of a top-four finish, namely Eintracht Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Leipzig, Mainz, Freiburg and Werder Bremen.

Eintracht finished third last season and are given a 36.4% chance of making the top four this time around. But they will have to do so without the goals of Ekitike. 

Ekitike and Omar Marmoush – who joined Manchester City in January – were the only players to net more than five league goals for them last season. 
But Eintracht have been in this position before, having also sold Randal Kolo Muani, Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller for big fees in recent years.

They may have a ready-made Ekitike replacement in Jonathan Burkardt. With 18 Bundesliga goals for Mainz, he was the top-scoring German in Europe's top five leagues last term.

Like Eintracht, Stuttgart enjoyed a terrific 2024-25 campaign, finishing ninth under the highly rated Sebastian Hoeness while winning the DFL-Pokal. Their top-four chances are rated at 28.8%.

Despite interest from Bayern, Stuttgart have forward Nick Woltemade, whose star could rise further this season. Last term, he was one of 15 players from Europe's top five leagues, born in 2002 or later, to achieve 20 goal involvements (17 goals, three assists, all competitions).

Leipzig had less luck when it came to fending off interest in their talisman, with Benjamin Sesko joining Manchester United. They could also lose attacking midfielder Xavi Simons, who is attracting interest from Chelsea.

Ole Werner is the new man in charge of Leipzig, whose chances of making the top four are at 27.4%.  

Werner stabilised Werder Bremen as a top-flight club after winning promotion from the 2. Bundesliga in 2022, overseeing finishes of 13th, ninth and eighth. His former club are given a 12.3% chance of making the top four under his successor Horst Steffen.

They are deemed as less likely reach the Champions League than Mainz (20.2%) or Freiburg (14.3%). Both impressed last campaign but will have additional demands to shoulder in 2024-25, with Freiburg competing in the Europa League and Mainz in the Conference League.

HSV here to stay?

The Bundesliga's unique relegation system, where the bottom two go down automatically and the next-lowest side faces the third-place finisher from the second tier, often serves up plenty of drama.

And with eight different clubs given more than a 10% chance of finishing in the bottom two this time around, expect a mad scramble for survival.

Koln won the 2. Bundesliga title ahead of HSV last season, the third time they have topped the second tier in the last 11 years. However, they are the supercomputer's relegation favourites with a 31.1% chance of a bottom-two finish.

It was a close call for Heidenheim last season, as they beat Elversberg 4-3 on aggregate in the relegation play-off to stay among Germany's elite. However, Frank Schmidt's men are expected to be in danger again, going down automatically in 29.5% of simulations and being forced into another play-off in 11.8%.

One of the big stories ahead of this season is the return of HSV – one of just three German clubs to win the European Cup/Champions League – to the big time. 

After seven years in the second tier, they are given a 29% chance of being in the bottom two, though they do finish outside the bottom three in 59.5% of projections.

Just two games into their Bundesliga return, HSV will welcome local rivals St. Pauli to the Volksparkstadion, and the cult club are expected to be scrapping for safety again this season.

St. Pauli finished in the bottom two in 28.4% of simulations. However, only Bayern (32) conceded fewer goals than their 41 in the Bundesliga last season, so Alexander Blessin will hope that solidity continues into the new campaign.

Hoffenheim (15.2%), Union Berlin (15.1%), Augsburg (13.5%) and Borussia Monchengladbach (12.3%) are also given more than a one-in-ten chance of a bottom-two finish, and even Wolfsburg may not be safe at 8.6%.

Whatever happens, plenty of thrills and spills are expected across the next 34 matchdays.