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Women's Super League predictions: Can Chelsea beat Arsenal to the Champions League on the final day?
Chelsea are just two points behind Arsenal in the race for a Champions League spot ahead of the last day of the Women's Super League season.
Another thrilling season of Women's Super League action comes to its conclusion this weekend, with some positions in the standings yet to be fully confirmed.
One thing is for certain, and that is that Manchester City will receive the WSL title following their fixture with West Ham, but the tussle below them could provide fireworks.
Both Arsenal and Chelsea will battle it out for the final automatic Champions League spot, though the Gunners have their fate in their own hands ahead of their trip to Liverpool.
However, a slip-up on Merseyside offers the chance for Chelsea to capitalise against Manchester United, while as many as six teams could switch places on matchday 22.
Tottenham face Brighton in a clash between fifth and sixth, while the London City Lionesses end their debut WSL campaign against Aston Villa, and Everton face Leicester City.
But who does the Opta supercomputer predict will finish their campaign on a high? Here, we have a look at the pre-match facts ahead of the final day.
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER CITY
The Chigwell Construction Stadium will be the venue for Manchester City's clash with West Ham in the first match since Andree Jeglertz's side were crowned the WSL champions.
Following Arsenal's 1-1 draw with Brighton last Wednesday, the Citizens won the top flight for the first time since 2016 and will want to finish their season with a flourish against a West Ham side whose position in the division is already secure.
And the Opta supercomputer has sided with City to get the job done, assigning them a 74.5% chance of victory, the highest of any team in its MD22 simulations, while the Hammers are handed a win probability of just 11.1%.
City's tag as the overwhelming favourites is justified, too, given West Ham have won just one of their 14 WSL games against them, losing 12 times (D1), with that sole victory coming in October 2021 under Olli Harder (2-0).
The Citizens have also won five of their six WSL away games against West Ham, though they did draw 1-1 in this fixture last season, with Manuela Pavi netting a stoppage-time equaliser for the Hammers.
But this is a different City side under Jeglertz. They are aiming to equal their best-ever points return in a single WSL campaign with a win, which they set in 2020-21 and 2023-24 (55 in both) – the Citizens have led the league for 189 days this term, 139 more than any other side (Chelsea – 50).
And the key to their title success has been Khadija Shaw, who is the top scorer in the WSL this term with 19 goals in 21 appearances. She has had 115 shots in the top flight this season, with only one player having more in a single campaign, herself in 2022-23 (124).
LONDON CITY LIONESSES V ASTON VILLA
The London City Lionesses have enjoyed a solid first campaign in the WSL, and could finish as high as sixth in the table with victory over Aston Villa, though they are relying on Tottenham to beat Brighton to achieve that.
London City have already set the best ever points return in a WSL season by a newly promoted club (24) and victory here will see them set the record for the most wins by a promoted side (seven currently) – they could also be the first promoted side to finish in the top half since Man United in 2019-20 (4th).
And they come up against a Villa side out for a return to winning ways following back-to-back defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal, which leaves them ninth in the division.
The Villans have avoided defeat in each of their first seven WSL games against newly promoted opposition (W5 D2), but have lost their last two 3-1, to Crystal Palace in March 2025 and to London City in November 2025.
However, only Leicester (10) have lost more WSL games in 2026 than Villa (P10 W2 D1 L7) and they could lose three consecutive league matches without scoring for the first time since Natalia Arroyo's first three matches in charge between February and March 2025.
That losing stretch is expected to continue, at least according to the Opta supercomputer. Across its 10,000 data-led simulations, Villa came out on top in 25.7% of those compared to London City's 48.6% win probability. The likelihood of a draw is 25.8%.
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
After Arsenal's hopes of overhauling City at the summit were ended with their stalemate at Brighton, the Gunners will be hoping to consolidate second place with a positive result against Liverpool at Anfield.
Renee Slegers' side are second following Wednesday's win against Everton, leaving them two points above third-placed Chelsea, who face Man United on the final day.
This will be Arsenal's seventh game in all competitions in just 20 days, the first team in the WSL era to play seven matches in a period shorter than three weeks. The Gunners' previous seven matches came across a six-week period.
And despite falling short of the title, Arsenal will feel confident of ending the season strongly. Excluding the 2019-20 campaign, they boast the most final day wins in WSL history (11), while only Bristol City (nine) have suffered more final game defeats than Liverpool (eight).
In addition, Liverpool have lost 13 of their last 15 WSL games against Arsenal, with the exceptions of a 4-4 draw in May 2017 and a 1-0 win in October 2023. All 14 of the Reds' points in the competition against the Gunners have come away from home (W4 D2).
Arsenal have also won all 12 of their away games against Liverpool in the WSL, the only team to record more than 10 victories on the road against an opponent, and that number looks set to improve this weekend.
The Opta supercomputer has handed Arsenal a 68.6% chance of taking all three points, while Liverpool are only fancied of taking all three points in 14.1% of those outcomes.
But Liverpool will be hoping Beata Olsson can have a say. She scored against Arsenal in the reverse fixture in December, and the only players to net home and away to the Gunners for the club in a WSL season are Shanice van de Sanden and Caroline Weir, who both did so in the 2016 season.
EVERTON V LEICESTER CITY
Leicester's relegation from the WSL was confirmed after a 7-0 thrashing by Arsenal, and with a relegation play-off against Charlton Athletic to come, they will be hoping to enter that huge game with momentum from their final-day clash away to Everton.
But it's hard to see how the Foxes can turn their fortunes around. They have won just one of their last 19 WSL games (D3 L15), losing each of their last 10. Only Doncaster Rovers Belles (17, Sep 2013 to Oct 2016) and Yeovil Town (12, Sep 2017 to April 2018) have ever had a longer losing streak in the competition's history.
In addition, Leicester have also lost 16 of their 21 WSL games this season (W2 D3), with only two non-newly promoted sides suffering more defeats in a single campaign, all of whom were relegated: Yeovil Town in 2018-19, Birmingham City in 2021-22 and Reading in 2022-23 (all 17).
And they come up against an Everton team that have won three of their four WSL home games against them (L1), winning 4-1 in this fixture last season.
However, there is some hope. The Toffees have lost eight of their 10 WSL games at Goodison Park this term (W2), the joint-most of any team alongside Leicester City. The only teams to suffer more defeats on home turf in a campaign are Bristol City in 2023-24 (11) and Birmingham City in 2021-22 (nine).
But the Opta supercomputer has backed that winning feeling to return on Merseyside. Everton are assigned a 58.7% chance of victory compared to Leicester's win probability of 19.8%, with a draw rated slightly higher at 21.5%.
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER UNITED
Chelsea's 3-1 win over Leicester last time out kept their faint hopes of finishing inside the top two alive, and they will be eyeing a victory against Man United, while also relying on a favour from Liverpool against Arsenal, to automatically qualify for the Champions League.
The Blues will be aiming to equal their best winning run of the WSL season (three currently), though even with victory in this game, 2025-26 will be the Blues' worst points return in a completed 12-team WSL campaign (46 currently).
They have also won their final game of the season in each of the last 10 WSL campaigns (excluding 2019-20), since losing to Man City in 2014. That run includes wins over Man United in 2021-22 (4-2) and 2023-24 (6-0).
And the Opta supercomputer believes Chelsea will end another season with a win in its 10,000 data-led simulations. Sonia Bompastor's side came out on top in 62.5% of scenarios compared to United's probability of 17.6%. A draw happened in 19.9% of those outcomes.
Chelsea's tag as the favourites owes to their impressive record over the Red Devils in the WSL. They have won each of their six previous home games against United in the competition, though four of those have come by a one-goal margin, including last season when winning 1-0.
In addition, Chelsea are the only team that United have never beaten in the WSL, failing in all 12 previous attempts (D2 L10). The Red Devils also average more goals conceded (2.5) and fewer goals scored (0.7) per game versus the Blues than any other team in the competition.
United's kryptonite in this fixture has often been Sam Kerr, who has scored more WSL goals against the Red Devils (seven) than any other player. She could become the seventh player to net in 50+ WSL matches and the third non-British player to do so after Vivianne Miedema (67) and Shaw (51).
BRIGHTON V TOTTENHAM
An intriguing battle at the American Express Stadium is on the cards as fifth-placed Tottenham take on Brighton, who are just one place below them in the standings.
But Dario Vidosic's side come into the clash with confidence after their late win over Liverpool on Sunday booked their place in the FA Cup final, where they will face Man City.
The Seagulls will take to the pitch at Wembley Stadium on May 31 for a shot at glory, but must first navigate a tough test against Tottenham, a team they have struggled against, particularly in front of their own supporters.
Brighton have failed to win any of their last three WSL home games against Tottenham (D1 L2), since a 2-1 win in October 2021. That includes an 8-0 loss in October 2022 under Hope Powell.
However, the Seagulls are unbeaten in their last five WSL matches (W2 D3), the longest run of their WSL history – victory in this game will see them set their best points tally in a single season at this level, beating out their 28 from last term (26 currently).
But Tottenham are also enjoying a solid campaign. They are already guaranteed a joint-best finish in the WSL, also ending the 2021-22 campaign in fifth.
They are also 13 points better off than last season when they came second bottom, the best overperformance by any team between campaigns since 2023-24 (Liverpool +18 and Spurs +13 again).
In its pre-match simulations, though, Spurs are predicted to come up short. The Opta supercomputer has handed Spurs just a 28.6% chance of victory, while their hopes of a point are rated at 26.9%. Brighton, meanwhile, are assigned a 44.6% win probability.












