Which Teams Are Favorites to Qualify for AFCON 2027?

Senegal, Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria enter qualifying among the leading candidates, although the format and several competitive groups could create room for surprises.

With 48 national teams divided into 12 groups, the AFCON 2027 Qualifiers feature several clear contenders before the opening matchday. The draw pots provide a useful starting point: CAF seeded Morocco, Senegal, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia, Cameroon, DR Congo, Mali, South Africa and Burkina Faso in Pot 1

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Senegal and Morocco lead the contenders

Senegal and Morocco both reached the AFCON 2025 final, which Senegal won 1-0 on the pitch after extra time. However, CAF later overturned the result and officially awarded Morocco a 3-0 victory, a decision subsequently appealed by the Senegalese Football Federation to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).

Senegal headlines Group J alongside Mozambique, Sudan and Ethiopia, while Morocco faces Gabon, Niger and Lesotho in Group A. Their top-seed status and recent tournament performances make both natural favorites to secure one of the two available places.

Egypt also enters qualification with strong recent credentials after reaching the semifinals of the last AFCON. The Pharaohs will face Angola, Malawi and South Sudan in Group B.

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Nigeria, Algeria and Côte d’Ivoire

Nigeria, another AFCON 2025 semifinalist, faces a different situation. Group L also contains co-host Tanzania, which has already qualified automatically. As a result, only the highest-ranked team among Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau will join Tanzania at the finals, leaving less room for dropped points.

Algeria is the leading seed in Group I against Zambia, Togo and Burundi. Its case is strengthened by recent international results: Algeria was among the nine African nations to advance from the group stage to the Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup.

Group C could be one of the toughest sections. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are drawn together with The Gambia and Somalia. Both the Ivorians and Ghanaians reached the Round of 32 at the last World Cup, while Côte d’Ivoire entered the most recent AFCON as defending African champion.

Where could qualification be tighter?

Some groups appear considerably less predictable. Pot 1 side Mali must deal with Cape Verde in Group K, and Cape Verde also reached the Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup. Rwanda and Liberia complete the section.

Group D presents another difficult equation. With Kenya automatically qualified as a host, South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea are competing for only one additional place. The same applies in Group H, where host Uganda is already through and Tunisia, Libya and Botswana must fight for the remaining berth.

Based on recent results, seeding and tournament pedigree, Senegal, Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria and Côte d’Ivoire stand among the strongest candidates. But with only six qualifiers per team, even the established powers have little margin for error.