It is not every Christmas that football fans are able to sink their teeth into an international tournament.

But while many of Europe's top leagues – including Ligue 1, LaLiga and the Bundesliga – are about to enter their winter breaks, the Africa Cup of Nations will run from December 21 to January 18.

Morocco are the hosts for the 35th edition of the tournament, with Ivory Coast the defending champions following their dream run on home soil in the 2023 edition (which took place between January and February 2024).

At the last edition, the Elephants sacked their head coach after the group stage, salvaged qualification as one of the best third-placed finishers due to a set of crazy results elsewhere, then embarked on a fairytale run to the trophy, with Sebastien Haller scoring the winner against Nigeria in the final, shortly after returning following cancer treatment. 

If there is one thing that is certain about AFCON, it's that there will be twists and turns aplenty.

Morocco, Egypt – fresh from the fallout of Mohamed Salah's bust-up with Arne Slot – Algeria and Senegal are among the teams tipped to challenge by the Opta supercomputer.

But who else has a shot at being crowned champions of Africa? The Opta predictive model has simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and we can reveal the results.

THE FAVOURITES

Morocco (19%) 

The 2023 tournament was the first to be won by the hosts since Egypt triumphed on their own turf in 2006.

Morocco are hoping to make the most of home advantage this time around, having only been awarded the tournament after Guinea were stripped of the privilege in 2022.

And Walid Regragui's Atlas Lions are the supercomputer's favourites to lift the trophy, doing so in 19% of simulations. 

It is easy to see why the predictive model fancies their chances. Morocco are on an 18-game winning run, excluding games at the Arab Cup, which sits outside FIFA's international match window and features mostly domestic-based players. That means they have surpassed the international record that had been held by Spain since 2009 (15 straight wins).

In Paris Saint-Germain's Achraf Hakimi, they boast the 2025 African Player of the Year, and even though the right-back suffered an ankle sprain during a Champions League loss to Bayern Munich, he is in Regragui's squad and should play a significant part.

Over this season and last, no defender from Europe's top five leagues has more goal contributions than Hakimi (30 – 13 goals, 17 assists), putting him level with Alejandro Grimaldo of Bayer Leverkusen.

Morocco can also call upon Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz, striker Youssef En-Nesyri and Al-Hilal goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, who was brilliant in the 2022 World Cup.

They are assigned a 94% chance of escaping Group A, having been drawn alongside Mali, Zambia and Comoros, topping their pool in 58% of sims.

Egypt (12%)

Egypt's seven AFCON titles are the most of any nation, but since winning three consecutively from 2006 to 2010, they have gone seven editions without lifting the trophy.

Nevertheless, the Pharaohs are one of three nations handed a 12% chance of lifting the trophy, alongside Senegal and Algeria. 

Egypt's preparations have been dominated by speculation about Salah's future, after the 33-year-old claimed he had been "thrown under the bus" by Liverpool and that he no longer had a relationship with head coach Slot.

But following clear-the-air talks, Salah returned to Liverpool's matchday squad and supplied an assist as a substitute against in Saturday's 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion, claiming the record for Premier League goal involvements for a single club, with 277 (previously Wayne Rooney, 276 for Manchester United).

Salah has struggled for much of this season, with his per-90 averages for goals (0.28 to 0.68), xG (0.36 to 0.63) and assists (0.23 to 0.46) all down on his 2024-25 figures, but he scored nine goals as Egypt topped their 2026 World Cup qualification group.

This will be Salah's fifth edition of AFCON, and he has scored seven goals in 19 games at his previous four – he is five away from Hassan El-Shazly's team record.

Omar Marmoush will support Salah, though eight of his last nine Manchester City appearances have been as a substitute, so coach Hossam Hassan will hope the 26-year-old is sharp when they open their campaign against Zimbabwe. South Africa and Angola are their other Group B opponents.

Egypt are assigned a 12% chance of lifting the trophy and a 22% probability of making the final. Should they get to the showpiece match and require a penalty shoot-out, they would be wise to let Salah take an earlier kick, after he was memorably denied a chance to take their fifth penalty against Senegal in 2021.

Senegal (12%)

That shoot-out success over Egypt four years ago finally ended Senegal's long wait for a first AFCON triumph, but their 2023 title defence went poorly as they crashed out in the last 16.

That led to the exit of long-serving boss Aliou Cisse, with Pape Thiaw since taking the reins. And the new boss has made an impressive state. 

His Lions of Teranga secured qualification for next year's World Cup with relative ease, while a 3-1 friendly win over England at the City Ground made headlines.

Senegal's only defeat under Thiaw was a 2-0 friendly loss to Brazil in November, in which they enjoyed a 53.1% possession share and almost matches the Selecao's shot count (11 to 14).

Few sides at the tournament can boast a frontline as dynamic as Senegal's, with Premier League livewires Ismaila Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye supporting Sadio Mane.

Sarr has provided 28 goal involvements (20 goals, eight assists) for Crystal Palace since the start of 2024-25, and he should play a full role after returning from an ankle ligament injury.

Ndiaye, meanwhile, ranks 11th in the Premier League this season for expected assists (2.7) and has completed 34 dribbles, a tally bettered by only three players.

Senegal lift the trophy in 12% of sims and reach the final in 22%. Their 95% probability of making the last 16 is the highest of any team – Botswana, DR Congo and Benin are their Group D opponents.

Algeria (12%)

Algeria have frequently underwhelmed at recent editions of AFCON, suffering back-to-back group-stage exits since lifting the trophy in 2019.

But expectations will still be high around Vladimir Petkovic's team, with this being Algeria's sixth AFCON with Riyad Mahrez in their squad. 

The former Manchester City winger has not provided a single goal involvement at the last two editions of AFCON (in six games) after recording eight in his first three tournaments (in 14 matches).

He has scored just one goal in nine Saudi Pro League games for Al-Ahli this season, having recorded 18 goal contributions last term (eight goals, 10 assists), though his 28 chances created are the second-most in the division in 2025-26.

The 34-year-old has also struck up a strong understanding with Wolfsburg's Mohamed Amoura, who was the leading scorer in Africa's World Cup qualifiers, with 10 goals.

After landing in Group E alongside Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan, Algeria are assigned a 12% chance of lifting the trophy and only fail to make the last 16 in 5% of simulations.

However, depending on how the groups shake out, they could meet Senegal, Ivory Coast or Cameroon in what would be a blockbuster round-of-16 matchup.

Nigeria (7%)

Coming in after the four teams with over a 10% chance of AFCON glory, 2023 runners-up Nigeria are the supercomputer's next-most fancied team, with a 7% probability.

But being drawn alongside Tunisia in Group C – which also features Uganda and Tanzania – means there is plenty of jeopardy for the Super Eagles. They are assigned a 43% chance of topping their pool, compared to Tunisia's 40%.

In 10 AFCON participations this century, Nigeria have finished third five times, been runners-up twice and lifted the trophy once, though they have missed several editions of the tournament in recent years.

They appointed Eric Chelle as their new head coach in January, following the resignation of former Ajax winger Finidi George.

And Chelle's squad is headlined by Galatasaray striker Victor Osimhen, whose six Champions League goals this season have only been bettered by Kylian Mbappe's nine.

Ademola Lookman is another big name to watch, though he only has three goals and one assist in 16 outings for Atalanta this term. Fulham trio Alex Iwobi, Samuel Chukwueze and Calvin Bassey are other standouts, with the latter likely to have a particularly important role.

Centre-back and captain William Troost-Ekong was the AFCON Player of the Tournament in 2023, also finishing as his country's joint-most prolific scorer with three goals. 

However, the 32-year-old surprisingly retired from international duty recently, and with Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick injured, Nigeria's defensive options are depleted.   

Tunisia (7%)

Tunisia – champions in 2004 – have made at least the quarter-finals at four of the last five tournaments.

And their 7% chance of lifting the trophy for a second time puts them level with the hosts, Ivory Coast. They are only second-favourites to top Group C but are given an 87% chance of reaching the knockout rounds.

Sami Trabelsi took over for a second stint as their head coach in February, and since then, the Eagles of Carthage have only lost one of 11 games (eight wins, two draws) – a friendly against Morocco.

Tunisia held Brazil to a mightily impressive 1-1 draw during the most recent international break, though they were perhaps fortunate to withstand an onslaught in which the Selecao generated 2.69 xG to their 0.58.

Former Manchester United midfielder Hannibal Mejbri is among those recalled to Tunisia's squad, while Elias Saad, Sebastien Tounekti and Firas Chaouat will hope to form a balanced frontline.

Ivory Coast (7%)

Other than Egypt's three straight titles between 2006 and 2010 and a pair of back-to-back triumphs by Cameroon in 2000 and 2002, no team has successfully defended the Africa Cup of Nations since Ghana in 1965.

Ivory Coast will attempt to achieve that feat this year, though they would probably prefer a little less drama than they experienced in 2023.

Two years ago, the Elephants sacked Jean-Louis Gasset after being thumped 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea in their final group game, which left them staring at a humiliating home exit.

They were the first AFCON hosts to lose two group games since they also did so back in 1984, but then, the unthinkable happened.

Results on matchday three in the other groups saw them reach the last 16 as the fourth-best third-place finishers, and Gasset's replacement Emerse Fae led them to a remarkable success.

They only spent 18.8% of their gametime ahead on the scoreboard (145 minutes, 39 seconds in total), with the final against Nigeria being their third comeback win in the knockout rounds. 

That magical triumph will be a tough act for them to follow, and Fae has made headlines with some of his squad selections. Nicolas Pepe and Simon Adingra are the surprise omissions, with Wilfried Zaha included two years on from his last call-up.

The holders are given a 7% chance of retaining their title. Topping Group F is not an easy assignment though, with Cameroon, Gabon and Mozambique also present, and they are assigned a 41% probability of doing so.

THE OTHER CONTENDERS

Since Egypt's three straight titles, six different nations have lifted the Africa Cup of Nations, in seven additions. So, it would be unwise to only focus on the teams with more than a 5% chance.

Mali are next in the supercomputer's projections with a 6% chance of lifting the trophy, something they have never done despite qualifying for 14 editions, with a runner-up finish on their 1972 debut still their best performance.

The only other teams given at least a 2% chance of glory are Cameroon (4%), DR Congo and South Africa (both 2%), but the Indomitable Lions' preparations have been far from smooth.

Former striking icon Samuel Eto'o is the president of the Cameroonian Football Federation, and he has caused chaos by announcing the dismissal of coach Marc Brys and the appointment of David Pagou. 

Brys has argued he cannot be fired by anyone other than the country's Ministry of Sport, labelled Eto'o 'narcissistic' and selected a squad different to the group chosen by Eto'o.

Some have accused Eto'o of attempting to thwart Vincent Aboubakar's bid to overhaul his all-time Cameroon scoring record by omitting the 33-year-old frontman, who needs 11 goals to tie the former Barcelona man.

Aboubakar is also nine goals adrift of Eto'o's all-time AFCON mark of 18, with Senegal star Mane level with him. Aboubakar's nine AFCON goals have come in 16 matches (0.56 per game), whereas Mane's have come in 22 games (0.41).

Eight more teams are assigned a 1% chance of winning the tournament: Angola, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Zambia, Mozambique, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania. 

And if there is one thing we can confidently predict ahead of AFCON, it's that surprises are likely.