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Real Madrid's Impressive Semi-Final Record Makes Them Top Favorites
Based on the data, Real Madrid is well-positioned to defeat Bayern Munich in the return leg and advance to the final.
Real Madrid has been eliminated in one of the fifteen European Cup, now Champions League, knockout rounds in which it drew the away first leg, in the quarter-finals of the 1990/91 edition by Spartak Moscow. The draw in Munich against Bayern was only the second instance in the semi-finals, having previously emerged as champions in the former case.
Out of Real Madrid's six draws in 32 semi-finals prior to their visit to the Allianz Arena, only one occurred in the first leg, a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in the 2015/16 season, which was decided in the return leg at Santiago Bernabéu with a minimal victory, thanks to an own goal by Brazilian Fernandinho.
The Brazilian Vinícius Junior's double strike, securing a 2-2 draw for Real Madrid at Bayern's home, interrupted a losing streak in semi-finals after losing their last three away matches in Champions League semi-finals to Chelsea and Manchester City twice.
In the six semi-finals where Real Madrid drew the first leg, five at the Santiago Bernabéu and one at the Etihad, they progressed in four cases and were eliminated in two. In the 1987/88 season by PSV, after drawing 1-1 at the Bernabéu and 0-0 in the Netherlands, and in the 2010/11 season against Barcelona, losing 0-2 at home and drawing 1-1 at Camp Nou.
Against Manchester United in the 1956/57 season, Inter Milan in 1965/66, Borussia Dortmund in 1997/98, and Manchester City in 2015/16, as the most recent and only case in which the first-leg draw was not at the Bernabéu, Real Madrid always progressed to become champions of the tournament.
Expanding to the other rounds of European Cup knockouts, Real Madrid drew fifteen first-leg away games in history and progressed in fourteen of them. Their only bad precedent was in March 1991, when, after a goalless draw in Moscow, Emilio Butragueño's early goal at the Bernabéu was overturned by Spartak with a brace from Radchenko and a goal from Shmarov.
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