Scudetto holders Napoli will face Serie B champions Sassuolo on the road to kick off the 2025-26 Serie A season.

Antonio Conte's side managed to beat Inter to the title on the final day of the last campaign, with league MVP Scott McTominay and Romelu Lukaku getting Napoli over the line in a 2-0 win over Cagliari at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

It was a heartbreaking end to the season for Simone Inzaghi's Inter, who were also thrashed 5-0 in the Champions League final by Paris Saint-Germain and lost in the Coppa Italia semi-finals to rivals AC Milan.

New head coach, and former Inter player, Cristian Chivu will be hoping to bring some silverware to the San Siro after promising signs at the Club World Cup.

Roma missed out on the Champions League places by one point last season, but will be hoping to go a step further this time around under new head coach Gian Piero Gasperini.

After failing to qualify for European football, Lazio and Milan will have familiar faces returning to their respective touchlines in Maurizio Sarri and Massimiliano Allegri.

Both coaches have won the Serie A title with Juventus, while Allegri also led the Rossoneri to the trophy in 2011.

Sassuolo and Pisa gained automatic promotion to the Italian top-flight, while Cremonese completed the 2025-26 Serie A lineup after defeating Spezia in the play-off final.

Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2025-26 Serie A season will pan out.

Inter backed to dethrone Napoli

Despite finishing second last season, Inter are expected to regain their Serie A crown in the 2025-26 season.

Inter ended the season one point behind Napoli last time out, although the Nerazzurri scored the most goals (79) and conceded the joint-second-fewest (35) behind Napoli (27).

They were led in the frontline by Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram, with the latter scoring 14 league goals and providing four assists, while the captain registered 12 goals and three assists.

Inter have been given a 35.9% chance of winning the title this season, but replacing Inzaghi will not be an easy job for Chivu.

Inzaghi boasted the highest win percentage of any Inter manager to take charge of at least 40 matches, with 65%.

Conte’s Napoli have been given just a 13.7% chance of retaining the title, despite bolstering their squad.

After scoring just the sixth-most goals in Serie A last season, Napoli have added Noa Lang, Lucca Lorenzo and veteran Kevin De Bruyne to their ranks as they look to improve in the attacking third.

During his spell at Manchester City, De Bruyne provided the most assists in all competitions among players in Europe’s top five leagues. The Belgium international recorded 170 assists in that time, with Lionel Messi in second with 147.

Since joining Udinese ahead of the 2023-24 campaign, Lucca has scored 20 goals in Serie A. He is the youngest player to reach that figure in the past two seasons, while only Duvan Zapata (10) has scored more headed goals than the Italian (eight) in that period.

Napoli will have the added pressure of playing in the Champions League this time around, but Conte's Serie A prowess should allow him to deal with the additional fixtures.

The Italian coach has the best points-per-game average of anyone in Serie A history, if all wins amounted to three points since 1929-30, with 2.24.

Although Atalanta have endured a massive change in the departure of Gasperini, they are expected to give Inter and Napoli a run for their money.

Gasperini took charge of 342 Serie A matches with Atalanta, the second-most games managed with a single club in the league after Giovanni Trapattoni's 402 with Juventus.

There has also been a major change in their attacking department, with last season's top-scorer Mateo Retegui joining Saudi Pro League side Al-Qadsiah.

Retegui scored 25 goals last season, the only player to reach the 20-goal mark, and also registered eight assists.

There could also be another huge exit in Ademola Lookman, who has been linked with a move away this summer. Only Martinez (69) has been involved in more Serie A goals in the past three seasons than Lookman (57), so the Nigeria forward's future could prove to be pivotal for Ivan Juric's side. However, as of August 19, Lookman was back in training.

Atalanta did show signs of being potential champions last season, leading the league in most away wins (13).

Both Roma (9.9%) and Juventus (8.2%) have been given an outside chance for the title, but they are expected to be favourites for the Champions League places.

Gasperini set to lead Roma back to the Champions League

Just seven points separated fourth-place Juventus and eighth-place Milan last season, and the Opta supercomputer predicts another close race for the Champions League places.

All 20 teams featuring in Serie A next season have been given at least a 0.3% chance of finishing in the top four.

With Atalanta potentially being roped into a race for the top four, we could see five teams battle it out for the final two spots in Europe's elite competition.

Roma have been given a 45.9% chance of finishing in the top four this season, under the guidance of Gasperini.

Their opening game against Bologna will be Gasperini's 600th Serie A match, seeing him become just the fifth person to reach that milestone after Carlo Mazzone (792), Nereo Rocco (747), Trapattoni (689) and Nils Liedholm (635).

Gasperini received a huge boost as Paulo Dybala has returned from injury just in time for the new season. The Argentina international has 129 goals and 67 assists to his name in Serie A.

Roma have also loaned in Evan Ferguson from Brighton. The striker is the youngest player over the past three seasons to have scored at least 15 Premier League goals.

Their closest competitors for the Champions League places are expected to be Juventus and Milan.

Juventus' loan addition of Randal Kolo Muani in January proved to be vital in securing a Champions League spot, with the striker scoring eight goals in 16 Serie A appearances.

This time around, Tudor has brought in Jonathan David on a free transfer. The Canadian forward had 21 goal involvements in Ligue 1 with Lille last season, more than twice as many as any of his team-mates produced, and he has reached double-figures for goals in each of his last seven campaigns.

Six-time Serie A winner Allegri has opted to strengthen Milan's midfield after they finished eighth last season.

Ardon Jashari recorded more recoveries (169) and through balls (11) than his Club Brugge team-mates last season, while Luka Modric joins off the back of a busy campaign with Real Madrid.

The former Ballon d'Or winner played a personal-high 57 matches for Los Blancos and directly contributed to 13 goals. Only in 2021-22 did he register more goal involvements (15).

Lazio (28.2%) and last season's Coppa Italia winners Bologna (24.3%) both have outside chances of breaking into the top four, but are expected to settle for potential Europa League and Conference League spots.

Sassuolo to survive by the skin of their teeth

There are no overwhelming favourites to be relegated from the Italian top-flight this season, but all three newly promoted sides are expected to struggle.

Pisa are back in Serie A for the first time since 1991, but are the most likely side to be relegated in the upcoming season at 38.2%.

They are expected to be joined in the bottom three by Cremonese and Lecce.

Lecce survived last season's relegation battle on the final day after they beat Lazio 1-0 away from home, despite playing the second half with 10 men.

Their top-scorer from last season, Nikola Krstovic (11 goals, five assists), has already got off the mark this season after bagging in their 2-0 win over Juve Stabia in the Coppa Italia. 

Serie B champions Sassuolo are expected to finish above the relegation zone alongside Hellas Verona and Cagliari, who finished six and five points above the bottom three, respectively, last season.

Sassuolo recorded 25 wins on their way to the second division title last term, while scoring the most goals (78) despite recording the fifth-highest expected goals (xG) at 54.77.