Can you really have a perfect start? Surely, it can always go better. 

But, as far as starts to coaching tenures, temporary or otherwise, go, then Michael Carrick had a very, very good one last week, as his Manchester United team beat Manchester City 2-0 in his first game of his second spell in caretaker charge of the Red Devils.

United were deserved victors at Old Trafford.

They had only 31.8% possession, yet they had 11 shots to City's seven, and hit seven of those on target, accumulating 2.27 expected goals to City's 0.45.

Carrick's team had three goals disallowed and hit the woodwork twice, but strikes from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu got them the victory their performance merited.

But from facing second in the Premier League at home, Carrick's United now head to Emirates Stadium to take on the leaders away.

Carrick remains unbeaten as United manager (P4 W3 D1), so Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta will certainly not be underestimating the challenge at hand, even if the Gunners are 15 points clear of the Red Devils ahead of Sunday's meeting.

With one of English football's biggest rivalries about to reignite, we delve into the key Opta insights.

What's expected?

Arsenal have won each of their last four Premier League home games against United, the longest home winning run against them by any side in the competition. The last team to win five in a row in the league were West Brom between 1976 and 1980.

United are winless in their last six Premier League games against Arsenal (D1 L5) – they have never gone seven in a row without a win against the Gunners in their league history.

Arsenal are looking to complete their fifth Premier League double over United, after 1997-98, 2001-02, 2006-07 and 2023-24.

They won 1-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture but have only won both league meetings with the Red Devils without conceding in 1901-02 in the second tier.

Despite United's morale-boosting win last weekend, Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites, according to Opta's predictive model.

Across 10,000 simulations, Arsenal come out on top in 71.3%. United have just a 12.3% chance of victory, while there is a 16.4% probability of a draw.

Saliba the bedrock of Arsenal's solid foundations

Arsenal are the second-highest scorers in the Premier League this term, with 40 goals to their name – five fewer than Man City.

But if the Gunners are to go on and end their 22-year wait for a league title, then their defence will be the key to their success.

Arsenal have not faced a single shot on target in any of their last two Premier League matches, the fifth time this season they have stopped their opponents from having one.

It is the most times in a season a team has managed this since Chelsea in 2020-21 (five), and since 2003-04 only Man City in both 2017-18 and 2019-20 have done so more often in a season (six in each).

That being said, Arteta's team have been frustrated in attack, with both Liverpool and Nottingham Forest shutting them out in their last two league outings.

The Gunners have managed to score 10 goals, however, in their three cup matches in the past two weeks (4-1 v Portsmouth in the FA Cup, 3-2 v Chelsea in the EFL Cup and 3-1 v Inter in the Champions League).

Integral to Arsenal's defence are, of course, centre-backs Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba.

Both of them are fit and firing, and United's attackers will have to be at their best to get the better of them.

To put Saliba's performances into context, Arsenal have only conceded 90 goals in 118 Premier League games with the France international on the pitch, an average of one every 115 minutes. Among Gunners players to play 10,000 minutes in the competition, only Tony Adams (one every 118 minutes) has a better ratio.

Another chance to shine for Carrick

Carrick got it spot on tactically last week, and he will need to do so again if United are to get a positive result here.

Carrick’s first and only Premier League victory in his previous stint as United's caretaker boss came against Arteta’s Arsenal – a 3-2 win at Old Trafford in December 2021.

However, Arteta has the upper hand in fixtures against United. He has won 67% of his 12 Premier League games against them (W8 D2 L2), the highest win rate of any manager to face them at least five times.

It has only been two games, so the sample size is extremely small.

But, since the departure of Ruben Amorim on January 5, United rank first in the Premier League for xG (4.81), shots attempted (41) and shots on target (17) and have the best xG differential (+4.12) and best shot difference (+27).

Though let's be fair to Amorim. United have put up good attacking metrics all season.

They rank third in the Premier League for goals (38), behind Arsenal (40) and Man City (45), second for xG (40.6), and they lead the way for shots (362) and shots on target (126).

If United are to get something against the league leaders, then matching their actual finishing to their expected finishing will likely be crucial. 

Should the Red Devils just lessen that slight underperformance across the rest of the season, too, then they have every chance of making the Champions League places, and that will be Carrick's primary objective.

As it stands, the Opta supercomputer hands United a 10.7% chance of finishing in the top four, though it is worth noting that a top-five finish may well secure Champions League qualification. The Red Devils have a 24.1% chance of placing in the top five.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Gabriel Jesus

Arsenal may have struggled for goals in their last two league matches, but their strikers both scored against Inter in midweek.

Viktor Gyokeres netted, though that was only after Gabriel Jesus had scored twice. 

Jesus' second goal was Arsenal's 19th in all competitions this season from a corner, the most by any side in Europe's big-five leagues, so Carrick will know United's set-piece defending will have to be on point.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

If United are to claim a positive result, then it is very likely that Bruno Fernandes will be crucial.

He is the leading assister in the Premier League this season, having set up nine goals, Fernandes has created the most chances in the Premier League this season (62), too.

The Portugal international ranks first for chances created both in open play (40) and from set plays (22) and his current ratio of 3.4 chances created per 90 minutes is the best by a United player since Ryan Giggs in 2008-09 (3.7).

Since the start of last season, meanwhile, only Mohamed Salah (eight) and Antoine Semenyo (six) have scored more Premier League goals from fast breaks than Mbeumo (five), so that threat is one Arsenal will have to be wary of.

Dorgu has found his form in attack, too. Five of his Premier League goal involvements for United have come in his last six appearances (two goals, two assists).