Spain is still considered the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to U.S. sportsbook DraftKings. However, recent results and the absence of star winger Lamine Yamal have raised questions about whether La Roja can live up to those expectations.

WHERE HAS SPAIN'S DOMINANCE GONE?

Luis de la Fuente's side has struggled to convince ahead of football’s biggest tournament after drawing 1-1 with Iraq in La Coruna and playing out a scoreless draw against Egypt in Barcelona. The absence of Yamal is beginning to show, while expectations remain sky-high for the reigning European champions.

Although both friendlies served largely as experimental matches—with Spain making 11 changes against Iraq at Riazor—Yamal still stole the spotlight despite not playing. The teenager drew attention everywhere he went, greeting children in the locker room and during team arrivals at the stadium and airport.

As a result, the media buzz around the injured star overshadowed Ferran Torres, who scored his 25th international goal to move into eighth place on Spain’s all-time scoring list, level with Emilio Butragueño and ahead of legends such as Alfredo Di Stéfano and Sergio Ramos.

Torres, Sergio Gómez, Dani Olmo, Gonzalo García, Yeremy Pino, Jesús Rodríguez, Fabián Ruiz, Mikel Merino and Borja Iglesias all had chances to trouble an Iraqi side that stunned the crowd when Merchas Doski unleashed a long-range strike to level the match against one of the World Cup favorites.

Yamal suffered an injury against Egypt and could miss Spain’s upcoming friendly against Peru in Puebla, Mexico, as well as the team’s first two World Cup matches in Group H against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia in Atlanta.

This version of Spain bears little resemblance to the side that dazzled at UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany. The expectation is that fans will not see the best of La Roja again until June 26 in Guadalajara, when Yamal is expected to be fully recovered from a left hamstring injury. Adding to Spain's concerns, his attacking partner Nico Williams is also sidelined with a groin problem.

One example of Yamal's importance came in Spain's most recent World Cup qualifier against Turkey, a chaotic 2-2 draw at La Cartuja that could have ended much worse for the hosts.

At least in the short term, these disappointing results may only cost Spain the chance to arrive at the World Cup as the No. 1 team in the FIFA rankings. The bigger question remains: can they recover in time, or are these warning signs of a potential collapse?

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM

Curiously, Spain has often performed well even when Yamal has been unavailable.

Since making his international debut in September 2023, the Barcelona star has missed 10 matches due to injury. Spain's record in those games is remarkable: eight wins and two draws.

Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Denmark, Switzerland, Bulgaria and Georgia twice all fell to Spain without Yamal in the lineup. However, the recent draws against Turkey and Iraq were the latest reminders of how much his creativity and explosiveness can be missed.

Since becoming a regular member of the national team, every absence from Spain duty has come through injury rather than a coaching decision. De la Fuente has overseen Yamal's rapid rise and has repeatedly praised the youngster's quality and fearlessness, qualities that helped lead Spain to a fourth European Championship title.

Now, all eyes turn to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

What chapter will Spain and Lamine Yamal write next on football’s biggest stage?

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