Real Madrid didn’t have the best start at the Club World Cup, drawing 1-1 with Al-Hilal in their opener. But the 3-1 win over Pachuca on matchday two opened the door for Xabi Alonso’s side to dream of the round of 16. The spot is in their hands, but they can’t afford to relax — there’s still a scenario where they could be knocked out.

Group H standings

The Merengues lead the group with 4 points, followed by RB Salzburg, their next opponent, who also have 4 points but with an inferior goal difference. Al-Hilal are third with 2 points, and at the bottom sit Pachuca, already out of contention with 0.

What Madrid needs

The equation is simple: a win or draw against Salzburg guarantees they advance as group leaders. In the round of 16, they’ll face the winner of the Juventus vs Manchester City clash — a matchup that promises fireworks no matter who emerges, with both teams being European giants.

The elimination risk

It may seem unlikely, but there’s a scenario where Madrid could be sent home early: a loss to RB Salzburg combined with a win for Al-Hilal over Pachuca. That would leave Los Blancos in third place with 4 points, ending their campaign prematurely.

The Mbappé factor

So far, Xabi Alonso hasn’t been able to count on Kylian Mbappé, sidelined by a severe gastroenteritis. But all signs point to Kiki being ready for the crucial game against Salzburg — though a video posted by the Merengues has only fueled speculation about Donatello’s physical condition.

The French star is that game-changing factor who can tip the balance. Madrid knows there’s no room for embarrassment: they need to seal their spot and show they have what it takes to fight for the title of first champion under the Club World Cup’s new format.