Real Madrid, now coached by Xabi Alonso, heads into the final matchday of the 2025 Club World Cup group stage as leader of Group H with four points, tied with RB Salzburg but ahead on goal difference. Despite beating Pachuca and drawing with Al Hilal, qualification is still up in the air. To secure first place, Madrid needs to beat the Austrians. A draw could also do the trick—as long as Al Hilal doesn’t beat already-eliminated Pachuca, or if they do, it’s not by more than two goals in a high-scoring match (like 4–2 or 5–3).

If Madrid doesn’t win, things get tricky. A 0–0 draw would be enough to stay top only if Al Hilal doesn’t win or wins by a narrow margin. But if the Saudis win big (say, 3–0), they could snatch top spot—or even knock Madrid out—depending on tiebreakers. In case of a loss, the Spanish side could still advance, but only if Al Hilal fails to grab all three points. If there's a three-way tie, goal difference in matches among the tied teams would come into play—where Madrid holds an edge if they manage to score against Salzburg.

First, second… or out

If Madrid finishes second, they’ll face the winner of Group G, where Juventus and Manchester City are fighting it out. Juve has the edge, needing only a draw to top the group. So if Madrid finishes second, they’ll likely take on the Italians. But if they win and secure first place, they’d go up against the loser of Juventus vs City—most likely the English side. Still, Xabi Alonso was clear: “We want to win and finish top.”

The worst-case scenario? Getting knocked out. That would happen if they lose to Salzburg and Al Hilal beats Pachuca. That combo would leave Madrid third in the group with just four points—behind the Austrians (seven) and the Saudis (five). It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s possible—so Madrid can’t afford to take anything for granted.

Everything comes down to Philly

The decisive clash is set for Friday, June 27 at 9:00 PM ET (7:00 PM Mexico time) at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. There, Real Madrid and RB Salzburg will battle for qualification in one of the tournament’s tightest groups. For the Spanish giants, the goal is simple: get the job done and avoid relying on anyone else—keeping the dream alive of lifting the first-ever title in this new Club World Cup format.