The Curses That Kept Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé From Winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or
Harry Kane beat out two of soccer’s brightest heirs to the throne, neither of whom has managed to secure the award as the best player in the world.
The Ballon d’Or does not always reward players who collect the most individual honors or shine on the biggest stages. Throughout its history, several statistical coincidences have fueled so-called curses surrounding stars such as Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé, both of whom once again fell short of soccer’s most prestigious individual award in 2026, despite finishing among the top three.
THE CURSE OF BEING YOUNG
The Kopa Trophy and the Golden Boy award recognize the best young players, but winning them does not guarantee success in the race for the senior Ballon d’Or.
Lamine Yamal won the Golden Boy award in 2024 and the Kopa Trophy in 2024, 2025, and 2026. However, he has yet to claim the sport’s top individual prize. He finished eighth in 2024, second in 2025, and third in 2026. This pattern has fueled the theory that dominating youth awards is not enough to become the best soccer player in the world.
This award honors the best young soccer player and has been presented since 2018. The 2020 edition was canceled.
| Year | Winner |
| 2026 | Lamine Yamal |
| 2025 | Lamine Yamal |
| 2024 | Lamine Yamal |
| 2023 | Jude Bellingham |
| 2022 | Gavi |
| 2021 | Pedri |
| 2020 | Not awarded |
| 2019 | Matthijs de Ligt |
| 2018 | Kylian Mbappé |
BEING THE BEST AT THE WORLD CUP IS NO GUARANTEE
The FIFA World Cup Golden Ball recognizes the tournament’s best player, but winning it does not guarantee success at the annual Ballon d’Or, presented by France Football. At the 2026 World Cup, Rodri won the Golden Ball, while Kylian Mbappé claimed the Bronze Ball.
Lionel Messi won the World Cup Golden Ball in 2014 and 2022. However, Cristiano Ronaldo won the annual Ballon d’Or in 2014, while Karim Benzema claimed the award in 2022. Messi finally won the annual prize in 2023, after lifting the World Cup trophy in Qatar, which took place between November and December 2022.
Luka Modrić broke the trend in 2018, winning both the World Cup Golden Ball in Russia and the annual Ballon d’Or that same year.
History also matters: until 1994, the annual Ballon d’Or was reserved for European players. In 1995, eligibility expanded to players of any nationality competing for European clubs. Since 2007, players from leagues around the world have been eligible.
FIFA has presented the World Cup Golden Ball to the tournament’s best player since 1982. The award was also granted retroactively for the 1978 tournament.
| World Cup | Golden Ball Winner | Annual Ballon d’Or Winner |
| 2026 | Rodri | Harry Kane (2026) |
| 2022 | Lionel Messi | Karim Benzema (2022) |
| 2018 | Luka Modrić | Luka Modrić (2018) |
| 2014 | Lionel Messi | Cristiano Ronaldo (2014) |
| 2010 | Diego Forlán | Lionel Messi (2010) |
| 2006 | Zinedine Zidane | Fabio Cannavaro (2006) |
| 2002 | Oliver Kahn | Ronaldo Nazário (2002) |
| 1998 | Ronaldo Nazário | Zinedine Zidane (1998) |
| 1994 | Romário | Hristo Stoichkov (1994) |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | Lothar Matthäus (1990) |
| 1986 | Diego Maradona | Ihor Belanov (1986) |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Paolo Rossi (1982) |
| 1978 | Mario Kempes | No corresponding annual award winner listed |
BEING A WORLD CUP CHAMPION DOESN’T GUARANTEE THE BALLON D’OR
Throughout history, several soccer players have won the Ballon d’Or in the same year they lifted the FIFA World Cup. Some of the most notable examples include Bobby Charlton (1966), Gerd Müller (1970), Paolo Rossi (1982), Lothar Matthäus (1990), Zinedine Zidane (1998), Ronaldo Nazário (2002), and Fabio Cannavaro (2006).
These precedents show that winning the World Cup and the Ballon d’Or in the same season is possible, but it is far from automatic. Individual performances, each player’s importance to their national team, and their contributions at club level also influence the voting.
In 2018, Luka Modrić provided another example of how World Cup recognition and the annual award do not always coincide. He won the Ballon d’Or after leading Croatia to the World Cup final in Russia, even though his team did not lift the trophy.
For Lamine Yamal, the 2026 edition produced a particularly striking coincidence: Spain won the World Cup, but the young forward finished third in the Ballon d’Or voting. The team’s triumph was not enough to put him ahead of Harry Kane, who won the award, or Kylian Mbappé, who finished second. His case shows that becoming a world champion does not guarantee soccer’s highest individual honor.
BALLON D’OR WINNERS AND THEIR WORLD CUP RECORDS
| Ballon d’Or Year(s) | Winner | World Cup Champion? | World Cup Title Year |
| 1956 | Stanley Matthews | No | — |
| 1957, 1959 | Alfredo Di Stéfano | No | — |
| 1958 | Raymond Kopa | No | — |
| 1960 | Luis Suárez | No | — |
| 1961 | Omar Sívori | No | — |
| 1962 | Josef Masopust | No | — |
| 1963 | Lev Yashin | No | — |
| 1964 | Denis Law | No | — |
| 1965 | Eusébio | No | — |
| 1966 | Bobby Charlton | Yes | 1966 |
| 1967 | Flórián Albert | No | — |
| 1968 | George Best | No | — |
| 1969 | Gianni Rivera | No | — |
| 1970 | Gerd Müller | Yes | 1974 |
| 1971, 1973, 1974 | Johan Cruyff | No | — |
| 1972, 1976 | Franz Beckenbauer | Yes | 1974 |
| 1975 | Oleg Blokhin | No | — |
| 1977 | Allan Simonsen | No | — |
| 1978, 1979 | Kevin Keegan | No | — |
| 1980, 1981 | Karl-Heinz Rummenigge | No | — |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Yes | 1982 |
| 1983, 1984, 1985 | Michel Platini | No | — |
| 1986 | Ihor Belanov | No | — |
| 1987 | Ruud Gullit | No | — |
| 1988, 1989, 1992 | Marco van Basten | No | — |
| 1990 | Lothar Matthäus | Yes | 1990 |
| 1991 | Jean-Pierre Papin | No | — |
| 1993 | Roberto Baggio | No | — |
| 1994 | Hristo Stoichkov | No | — |
| 1995 | George Weah | No | — |
| 1996 | Matthias Sammer | No | — |
| 1997, 2002 | Ronaldo Nazário | Yes | 1994, 2002 |
| 1998 | Zinedine Zidane | Yes | 1998 |
| 1999 | Rivaldo | Yes | 2002 |
| 2000 | Luís Figo | No | — |
| 2001 | Michael Owen | No | — |
| 2003 | Pavel Nedvěd | No | — |
| 2004 | Andriy Shevchenko | No | — |
| 2005 | Ronaldinho | Yes | 2002 |
| 2006 | Fabio Cannavaro | Yes | 2006 |
| 2007 | Kaká | No | — |
| 2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo | No | — |
| 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2023 | Lionel Messi | Yes | 2022 |
| 2018 | Luka Modrić | No | — |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema | No | — |
| 2024 | Rodri | No | — |
| 2025 | Ousmane Dembélé | No | — |
| 2026 | Harry Kane | No | — |
WORLD CUP GOLDEN BOOT WINNERS: DID THEY ALSO WIN THE BALLON D’OR?
The FIFA World Cup Golden Boot recognizes the top scorer at each World Cup, but scoring the most goals in the tournament does not guarantee winning the Ballon d’Or either. Some players have claimed both awards during their careers, while others have never won soccer’s top individual honor.
Kylian Mbappé, the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history, has won the Golden Boot at the last two World Cups, but that achievement has not guaranteed him the coveted Ballon d’Or. This year, Harry Kane claimed the award. Kane won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup, a tournament in which Mbappé lifted the trophy with France.
Throughout soccer history, several World Cup Golden Boot winners have also won the Ballon d’Or, although not always in the same year.
Some of the most notable examples include Eusébio, the top scorer at the 1966 World Cup in England and Ballon d’Or winner in 1965; Gerd Müller, the leading scorer at Mexico 1970 and winner of the individual award that same year; Paolo Rossi, who claimed both honors in 1982; Hristo Stoichkov, the Golden Boot winner at the 1994 World Cup in the United States and Ballon d’Or winner that year; and Ronaldo Nazário, the top scorer at Korea-Japan 2002 and Ballon d’Or winner in 1997 and 2002.
These precedents show that finishing as a World Cup’s top scorer can strengthen a player’s case for soccer’s highest individual honor, but it does not guarantee victory.
| World Cup | Golden Boot Winner(s) | Did They Win the Ballon d’Or? |
| 1930 | Guillermo Stábile | No |
| 1934 | Oldřich Nejedlý | No |
| 1938 | Leônidas da Silva | No |
| 1950 | Ademir de Menezes | No |
| 1954 | Sándor Kocsis | No |
| 1958 | Just Fontaine | No |
| 1962 | Flórián Albert, Garrincha, Valentin Ivanov, Dražan Jerković, Leonel Sánchez and Vavá | No |
| 1966 | Eusébio | Yes (1965) |
| 1970 | Gerd Müller | Yes (1970) |
| 1974 | Grzegorz Lato | No |
| 1978 | Mario Kempes | No |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Yes (1982) |
| 1986 | Gary Lineker | No |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | No |
| 1994 | Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov | Yes: Stoichkov (1994) |
| 1998 | Davor Šuker | No |
| 2002 | Ronaldo Nazário | Yes (1997 and 2002) |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose | No |
| 2010 | Thomas Müller | No |
| 2014 | James Rodríguez | No |
| 2018 | Harry Kane | No |
| 2022 | Kylian Mbappé | No |
| 2026 | Kylian Mbappé | No |
YAMAL AND MBAPPÉ’S BALLON D’OR HISTORY
Both players have come close to the top, but their careers reveal a key difference: Yamal has climbed the rankings rapidly since his first nomination, while Mbappé has made nine appearances among the nominees without winning the award.
Lamine Yamal
- 2023: 30th place, in his first appearance among the nominees.
- 2024: 8th place, after impressive performances for Barcelona and winning the European Championship with Spain.
- 2025: 2nd place, behind Ousmane Dembélé.
- 2026: 3rd place, behind Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé.
Kylian Mbappé
- 2017: 7th place, following his breakout season with AS Monaco.
- 2018: 4th place, despite winning the World Cup with France.
- 2019: 6th place.
- 2021: 9th place; the award was not presented in 2020.
- 2022: 6th place, after another outstanding season with PSG.
- 2023: 3rd place, his best result at the time.
- 2024: 6th place.
- 2025: 7th place.
- 2026: 2nd place, his highest finish to date, behind Harry Kane.
A CURSE OR JUST COINCIDENCE?
The so-called Ballon d’Or curses are neither rules nor patterns that guarantee a particular outcome. The award considers individual performances, team achievements, and sportsmanship, alongside the votes cast by the jury.
Yamal and Mbappé remain among soccer’s elite. The Spaniard has already finished second and third, while the French forward reached the runner-up spot in 2026. Their careers show that winning youth awards or shining at a World Cup does not determine the final result.
The big question is whether either player will break these patterns. In the Ballon d’Or race, talent opens the door, but securing the highest individual honor depends on much more than a single achievement.
THE BALLON D’OR CURSES
- KOPA TROPHY AND GOLDEN BOY: Winning youth awards does not guarantee the Ballon d’Or; Lamine Yamal has yet to claim the senior prize.
- SHINING AT THE WORLD CUP ISN’T ENOUGH: Messi and Modrić are notable exceptions to the trend that winning the World Cup’s best-player award does not guarantee the annual Ballon d’Or.
- YAMAL AND MBAPPÉ STILL CHASING THE CROWN: Both have earned multiple nominations and podium finishes, but they are still chasing soccer’s highest individual honor.
