Pep Guardiola has lost more league games against Tottenham than he has versus any other club in his managerial career, going down to them on eight occasions during his Manchester City reign.

Man City travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for Sunday's late kick-off in the Premier League, and after a topsy-turvy month in the title race, Arsenal and Aston Villa will both be watching on with plenty of interest. 

City defeated Wolves 2-0 in their most recent Premier League game last Saturday, with their neighbours then doing them a huge favour by defeating Arsenal 3-2 the following day.

Those results – coupled with Villa's victory over Newcastle United – cut the Gunners' lead at the summit to four points, and this weekend, they are the team hoping their arch-rivals can lend them a helping hand.

However, while Tottenham joined City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in securing a top-eight Champions League finish on Wednesday, their Premier League form has been nothing short of terrible and has left Thomas Frank fighting for his job.

Ahead of Sunday's game, we look at the Opta data to pick out all the key storylines and players to watch.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is siding with City ahead of Sunday's headline fixture, with their chances of victory rated at 46.9%.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Spurs were victorious in 28.7%, with the remaining 24.4% of scenarios seeing the points shared.

In the predictive model's 2025-26 simulations, City's chances of the title are rated at just 8.5%, despite Arsenal's wobble.

The Gunners took the crown in 81.5% of season simulations, with Villa doing so in 9.4%. Tottenham, meanwhile, finish 14th most often, doing so in 13.6% of scenarios. 

City initially struggled at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after the venue opened in 2019, losing on each of their first three trips there in the Champions League and Premier League. 

However, City have won on their last two league trips to Spurs, having not won three away games in a row against them since doing so between February 1973 and August 1974.

But Frank's side did upset the odds at the Etihad Stadium in August's return fixture, with Brennan Johnson and Joao Palhinha on target late in the first half, securing a 2-0 win.

Tottenham could now complete their 10th Premier League double over Spurs, with only Chelsea having achieved the feat against the Citizens 10 times. Spurs' nine Premier League doubles against City are already their most against any opponent.

Frank must find home comforts

Though Spurs finished their European league-stage campaign with three straight victories, two of which came at home, they have been dire on their own turf domestically.

Teams managed by Frank have won just four of their last 22 home Premier League matches overall, with the Dane posting an identical record (two wins, three draws, six defeats) across his last 11 games with Brentford as in his first 11 with Spurs. 

Frank's Tottenham have earned 0.82 points per home Premier League game, the worst such record of any Spurs boss in the competition's history.

And they took their woes on the road with them last weekend, drawing 2-2 with relegation favourites Burnley at Turf Moor.

Spurs are now winless in five Premier League matches (three draws, two defeats), with this their fourth run of five or more winless games in the last two seasons. They only endured four such runs throughout their previous 12 campaigns combined, from 2012-13 to 2023-24.

Across the last two seasons, the only ever-present sides to pick up fewer Premier League points than Tottenham's 66 are Wolves (50) and West Ham (63).

Their 31 defeats in that time are second only to Wolves' 37, and another defeat would mean they have lost 10 or more games for eight consecutive seasons since 2018-19. In their eight campaigns beforehand (2010-11 – 2017-18) this only happened twice.

There is still plenty of work for Frank to do if he is to get Spurs' supporters onside, even if their European results have provided some respite from their domestic struggles.

Semenyo looks to continue hot start

Spurs' fans could be sick of the sight of Antoine Semenyo by Sunday night.

Only two players have ever previously scored against Tottenham for two different teams in a Premier League season – Eric Cantona in 1992-93 (Leeds United and Man Utd) and Benito Carbone in 1999-00 (Sheffield Wednesday and Aston Villa).

Semenyo could join that exclusive club this week, having scored a 95th-minute winner against Spurs on his farewell appearance for Bournemouth on January 7.

Semenyo has scored five goals in his last eight Premier League appearances for both Bournemouth and City, the joint-most of any player in the division since December 15. 

And having found the net against Wolves last week, he will look to continue his hot streak here.

Given City have not been performing to their usual lofty standards, Guardiola may just need the winger to provide a moment of inspiration.

Last weekend, City both attempted and faced 11 shots against Wolves, the seventh time this season they had either had fewer or as many attempts as their opponents in a Premier League game, their joint-most in a season under Guardiola. 

They are only averaging 4.7 more shots per game than their opponents this campaign, making this their least dominant season under his reign.

Their attacking downturn has even affected the form of Erling Haaland, who ended his run of nine matches without an open-play goal (in all competitions) on Wednesday, netting City's first goal in a 2-0 Champions League win over Galatasaray.

With 15 games remaining in the title race, now would be a great time for City to find more ways to service their Norwegian goal machine.  

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Tottenham – Cristian Romero 

Romero assisted Randal Kolo Muani's opening goal against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League last time out, and his knack of popping up with goal involvements has been a major boost for Frank's men this season.

The Argentine has been directly involved in nine goals across all competitions this season (six goals, three assists), as many goal contributions as he managed in his first four campaigns for Spurs combined.

Romero may also be busy defensively on Sunday, having won more duels both overall (133) and in the air (63) than any other Tottenham player in the Premier League this season.

Manchester City – Omar Marmoush 

Marmoush netted his first Premier League goal of the season against Wolves last week, when Haaland was handed a rest.

However, all eight of Marmoush's goals in the competition have been scored at home – he has failed to score with all 20 of his attempts in 12 games away from home.

It has been a frustrating season for the Egyptian, but he certainly has the quality to be a key player for City between now and the end of May.