Arsenal remain in control of the Premier League title race as we emerge from the final international break of 2025, with a huge North London derby matchup awaiting them.

However, the Gunners may be starting to feel the pressure after dropping two valuable points in a thrilling 2-2 draw with Sunderland prior to the hiatus, a result that allowed Manchester City to cut their lead at the summit from six points to four.

They have also been rocked by several fitness concerns ahead of their return to action, with Gabriel Magalhaes potentially being the biggest loss after he was injured while representing Brazil.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have endured a strange start to life under Thomas Frank, underwhelming at home while excelling on their travels, and they sit fifth in the table.

Ahead of the first meeting between these two rivals this season, we dive into the Opta data to pick out the storylines and players to watch.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal strong favourites for victory on Sunday, with a 69% win probability. 

Spurs' hopes are rated at a mere 13.7%, with 17.3% of simulations finishing level.

According to the supercomputer's 2025-26 season predictions, Arsenal's hopes of clinching the title dropped to 64.2% following their draw with Sunderland, but they are still significantly higher than those of second-placed Manchester City, at 22.4%.

Spurs, meanwhile, are only assigned a 9.8% chance of making the top four and guaranteeing qualification for the Champions League.

Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham (one draw), including the last three in a row. This is their longest winning run against Spurs since a five-game stretch between January 1987 and January 1989.

Indeed, Tottenham have lost seven of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (one win, one draw), suffering as many defeats in that span as they did in their previous 25 North London derbies in the competition (nine wins, nine draws).

And they have struggled even more when travelling across North London, even if their away form in this campaign has been good. 

Tottenham have won just one of their last 32 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 19, with that lone victory coming via a 3-2 scoreline in November 2010. Spurs were 2-0 down in that game, but goals from Gareth Bale, Rafael van der Vaart and Younes Kaboul completed a stunning turnaround. 

Arsenal have also scored in each of their last 26 Premier League home games against Tottenham, netting at least twice in each of the last eight.

It is their longest home scoring streak against any opponent in the competition, while only against Leicester City have they had a longer run of scoring two or more goals (nine matches between 1997 and 2016).

Arsenal contend with injuries at both ends

Mikel Arteta might have hoped the international break would allow Arsenal to recover some of their injured stars. Instead, the Gunners emerge from the two-week pause arguably more bruised than they were going in.

Arsenal already had doubts over Viktor Gyokeres, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli, while Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are long-term absentees.

And during the internationals, they suffered several injury scares in the strongest area of their side – their defence.

There are fears that Gabriel could miss several weeks with an adductor injury he suffered during Brazil's 2-0 friendly win over Senegal at the Emirates, and any sustained absence would be a major blow for the league leaders.

Since the start of 2022-23, the Gunners have won 67.6% of their Premier League games when Gabriel has started (75/111), compared to just 50% without him (7/14).

And as the only defender in double figures for Premier League goals in that time (11, nine via his head), Gabriel has also been a key component of Arsenal's set-piece prowess.

In fact, since his Premier League debut in September 2020, Gabriel has scored 18 goals, five more than any other defender in the competition in that time.

Excluding penalties, Arsenal have scored more goals from set-pieces both overall (10) and as a percentage of their goals (50%) than any other side in the Premier League this season. No team have conceded fewer set-piece goals than Spurs' two, so Frank's men could be particularly well-placed to profit from Gabriel's absence.

Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber also sustained knocks while representing Italy and the Netherlands, respectively, but Arsenal's concerns are not limited to their backline.

If they are again without Gyokeres, Mikel Merino may be asked to reprise the makeshift centre-forward role he played at the Stadium of Light.

Only Leandro Trossard and Martinelli, with nine goals apiece, have outscored Merino among Arsenal players since the start of the 2024-25 Premier League season (eight goals).

Merino has played 33% of his Premier League minutes for Arsenal as a striker, compared to 62% in his natural central midfield position. The Spaniard has come up with some big moments in front of goal, and the Gunners may need another this weekend.

Spurs set up for more away-day success?

The only thing that has been consistent about Spurs' season so far is the fluctuation between their home and away results.

At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they have gone five games without a win in the competition since beating Burnley on matchday one (two draws, three defeats). 

Only rock-bottom Wolves (one) have taken fewer points at home than Tottenham's five this campaign.

But it has been very different on their travels. Frank's side have taken the joint-most points (13), scored the joint-most goals (12) and conceded the fewest goals (three) of any Premier League team in away games this term.

The former Brentford boss, who is known for his pragmatic approach, needs to find ways to open up deep-lying defences at home, but perhaps going on the road as underdogs this weekend will suit his team.

In home games, Spurs have averaged the fifth-highest possession share in the Premier League this season (55.8%), while tallying the third-fewest fast breaks (two).

Their possession share drops to the league's 10th-highest when considering only away games (51.3%), while only five teams have bettered their five fast breaks. 

The likes of Richarlison, Randal Kolo Muani, Xavi Simons and Mohammed Kudus, whose four assists are the joint-most in the Premier League this season, may just relish the opportunity to stretch their legs on the break if Arsenal dominate possession. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Arsenal – Martin Zubimendi

With Arsenal's defence likely to be weaker, there will be more onus on those in front of them to add an extra layer of protection.

Zubimendi has completed 445 passes while under pressure from opponents in the Premier League this season.

Only England international Elliot Anderson has completed more, for Nottingham Forest (492). Maintaining control could be key for the Gunners if they are missing key players.

Tottenham – Mohammed Kudus

Spurs are looking for a new derby hero on Sunday, as this will be the first matchup between Arsenal and Tottenham to not feature either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min since September 2014, when the teams drew 1-1 at the Emirates.

Between them, Kane (14) and Son (eight) are responsible for 27% of Spurs' Premier League goals against Arsenal (22/82).

Richarlison, who scored what he thought was going to be a late winner against Manchester United last time out, may be the most likely to provide that spark, given he averages more shots (2.71) and shots on target (1.0) per 90 minutes than any other Spurs player in the Premier League this season.