The drama at the 2022 World Cup went down to the final kick, with Gonzalo Montiel securing Argentina's first triumph since 1986 in their penalty shoot-out win over France in the showpiece match.

The 2026 edition now takes us to the United States, Canada and Mexico, with the latter hosting South Africa in the opening game on June 11.

With a record 48 countries competing across 104 matches in North America, reigning champions Argentina will have their work cut out as they look to retain their crown.

Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2026 World Cup could pan out.

Spain seek global dominance again

When discussing the favourites to win the World Cup, it is hard to look any further than Spain, who are unbeaten in their last 31 competitive matches (W25 D6), since a 2-0 loss in Scotland in March 2023, the nation's longest-ever run of non-friendlies without defeat.

Having already won the Euros in 2024, they will be looking to emulate their famous team between 2008 and 2012 (Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012), when they held the Euros and World Cup simultaneously.

The only other sides to have achieved that feat are West Germany (EURO 1972, WC 1974) and France (World Cup 1998, Euro 2000).

Spain have been backed as favourites to win this summer's competition by the Opta supercomputer, triumphing in 16.1% of Opta's simulations, and their hopes of winning a second World Cup have been boosted by Lamine Yamal's availability.

Yamal, the youngest player to make his Spain debut (16 years and 57 days) and youngest player to have scored a brace for La Roja, is set to recover from a hamstring injury in time to feature in the group stage, where Spain face Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.

At Euro 2024, Yamal, who was only 16 years old when he netted against France, overhauled the great Pele to become the youngest player to ever score at a Euros or a World Cup.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Spain's closest competitors are set to be France (13%) and England (11.2%).

France, led by the experienced Didier Deschamps, will attempt to become only the third team to reach the final of three consecutive editions, after West Germany (1982, 1986, 1990) and Brazil (1994, 1998, 2002).

Since 1998, France have reached the World Cup final in four of the seven editions (1998, 2006, 2018, 2022) — at least twice as often as any other nation during that period.

And Kylian Mbappe has taken a liking to the big stage; he has recorded more goal involvements (14) than any other player across the previous two editions, including a hat-trick in the 2022 final.

With Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki and Desire Doue also named in the France squad, they undoubtedly have the tournament's most star-studded attack.

England, on the other hand, may depend on their defensive solidity.

England became the second UEFA side to win 100% of their games in qualifying for the World Cup while keeping a clean sheet each time (8/8), after Yugoslavia in the 1954 qualifiers (4/4).

Thomas Tuchel's side kept nine clean sheets in their 10 matches in 2025, including a shutout in each of their eight UEFA World Cup qualifiers, making them the only team not to concede in the European process.

However, the Three Lions will have plenty of attacking threat of their own, especially from captain Harry Kane, who has scored eight goals in 11 World Cup games.

All eyes on Messi, Ronaldo and Neymar

Many expected Lionel Messi to call time on his international career after leading Argentina to the World Cup in 2022, but the Inter Miami man is not done just yet.

Messi holds the all-time record for World Cup appearances, with 26 matches played (13 goals, eight assists in those games), and during Argentina's victorious campaign in 2022, he scored or assisted 10 of Argentina’s 15 goals (seven goals, three assists).

Holders Argentina will attempt to become the third team to win back-to-back World Cups, after Italy (1934-1938) and Brazil (1958-1962).

If Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo appear at this year's tournament, they will become the first players in history to participate in six World Cups (Mexico's veteran goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa can achieve the same feat).

Portugal's best World Cup finish came 60 years ago, when they claimed third place in 1966. Since then, their only other semi-final appearance was in 2006, where they were defeated by France before losing the third-place match to hosts Germany.

Roberto Martinez recently suggested Ronaldo could even attempt to play at the 2030 World Cup, but it could be Neymar's last chance to lift the trophy with Brazil.

Neymar is one of two players, alongside Messi and Ivan Perisic, to have both scored and assisted at each of the last three World Cups.

Brazil have won the World Cup more often than any other nation (five), and their head coach Carlo Ancelotti will be looking to add his name to an elite list.

Ancelotti will experience his first World Cup as head coach; he is the first non-Brazilian to take charge of the Selecao at the tournament.

He could become the third coach to win both the World Cup and Champions League/European Cup, after Marcello Lippi and Vicente del Bosque.

Argentina have been given a 10.4% chance of retaining their title by the Opta supercomputer (fourth highest), while Portugal (7%) and Brazil (6.6%) are fifth and sixth favourites respectively.

Germany's reputation at risk, Norway the dark horses

Germany have won the World Cup four times, the joint-most by a European nation alongside Italy, but their recent campaigns have been hugely disappointing.

They will be looking to avoid three consecutive group-stage exits (also 2018 and 2022), though their last trip to the Americas was successful.

Seven of the eight World Cups held in the Americas have been won by a CONMEBOL nation. The only exception was Brazil 2014, when Germany defeated Argentina in the final.

Germany have been given a 5.1% probability of winning the 2026 World Cup by the Opta supercomputer.

The Netherlands, meanwhile, hold the record for the most appearances in World Cup finals without ever winning the tournament, having finished as runners-up three times, in 1974, 1978 and 2010, but there is optimism for Ronald Koeman's side.

Excluding penalty shoot-outs, the Netherlands have lost only one of their last 19 World Cup matches (W14 D4).

That sole defeat came in the 2010 final against Spain (0-1 after extra time). Meanwhile, their last loss in a group-stage match was back in 1994, a 1-0 defeat to Belgium.

The Opta supercomputer has given eighth-favourites Netherlands a 3.6% chance of winning the competition, just 0.1% more than potential dark horses Norway.

This will be Norway's fourth World Cup appearance and their first since 1998. Their best performance came in that 1998 edition, reaching the round of 16 before being eliminated by Italy.

Norway scored 4.6 goals per game in their World Cup qualifiers (37 goals in eight matches), the best average for any European nation in a single World Cup qualifying campaign with more than four games ever.

With the attacking impetus of Erling Haaland, Martin Odegaard and Alexander Sorloth, Norway could certainly cause an upset in Group I, which also features France, Senegal and Iraq.

The outsiders

As with any international tournament, the host nations will be looking to make the most of their home advantage.

The World Cup hosts have reached the second round of the competition at 20 of the previous 22 editions, with the exceptions being South Africa in 2010 and Qatar in 2022. The last hosts to win the tournament were France in 1998.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Mexico are most likely to reach the knockout rounds at 87.6%, facing Czechia, South Africa and South Korea in Group A.

The United States, who face Turkiye, Australia and Paraguay in Group D, have been given a 76.8% chance of progressing past the groups, while Canada (in Group B with Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar) have a 79.3% probability of doing so.

However, among the three host nations, the United States have been given the highest chance of winning the competition (1.2%).

Belgium (2.4% chance of winning the tournament) are making their 15th World Cup appearance; no European team has qualified for as many tournaments without ever winning the trophy.

This will be Croatia's seventh World Cup. In their previous six participations, they were either eliminated in the group stage (three times) or reached the semi-finals (three times), including a run to the final in 2018 and a bronze medal in 2022.

Among African nations, Morocco have the highest chance of winning the 2026 World Cup (1.9%) – in 2022 they finished fourth, the best placing of any African nation in the tournament's history.

Japan are the highest-ranked Asian side in the Opta supercomputer's predictions (17th – 1.2%), but they have never advanced beyond the round of 16 at the World Cup.

In fact, they hold the record for the most matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals at the tournament (25).

The 2026 World Cup will feature four debutants: Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. That's the most since the 2006 edition, which saw six teams make their bows in the tournament. The last debutants to reach the knockout stages were Slovakia, in 2010.