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Dortmund look to cap late-season comeback with Champions League qualification
A late-season turnaround has seen Borussia Dortmund put themselves in a great position to secure Champions League qualification.
Borussia Dortmund are potentially one win away from completing a record-equalling Bundesliga turnaround and sealing a spot in next season's Champions League.
Dortmund were languishing in 11th, well outside the European qualification places, only a few months ago but have climbed to fifth under coach Niko Kovac, who only took over in February. They have picked up 19 of a possible 21 points from the last seven matchdays, a league high.
Winners of six of their last seven league matches, including last week's 4-2 victory at Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund are on 54 points, just a point behind Freiburg in fourth, ahead of a final-day clash with relegated Holstein Kiel.
Should Dortmund win by three goals or more they are guaranteed a top-four finish irrespective of Freiburg's result against third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, who are on 57 points.
But any margin of victory would also be enough for Dortmund if Freiburg fail to beat Eintracht.
Finishing fourth would see Dortmund match their own record comeback over the last eight matchdays.
Dortmund climbed to fourth from 11th with eight games left in the 1993-94 season. No other Bundesliga team have managed such a comeback.
However, Holstein Kiel are on a three-game unbeaten run away from home for the first time in the Bundesliga (W1, D2).
Their last away game, a 3-1 victory in Augsburg, was just their second win on the road in the top flight – their other away victory came on matchday 24 at the start of March at Union Berlin (1-0).
And Dortmund will be required to buck a recent trend, too. Since 2011-12, when the team that finished fourth in the Bundesliga sealed qualification for the Champions League, only one side has managed to climb into the top four on the final matchday (Bayer Leverkusen in 2018-19).
Opta's supercomputer backs Dortmund to get over the line, with Kovac's team finishing in fourth in 83.1% of the model's data-led simulations.
Eintracht missed the chance to secure their Champions League spot last week when they slipped up with a 2-2 home draw against St Pauli and club CEO Axel Hellmann said a lot was now riding on the final match of the season.
"I know there is a lot, a lot at stake," Hellmann said.
"We have already secured a Europa [League] spot and we can now crown an outstanding season with the Champions League. It is a huge chance."
RB Leipzig, who host Stuttgart, will try to salvage something from a disappointing season, with the club in seventh place and just outside the European spots. Mainz 05 are sixth on goal difference.