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The Supercomputer No Longer Sees Arsenal as Favorites to Win the Champions League
A difficult week in Europe has reshaped the Champions League outlook. New projections now place a different club at the top of the title race.
Arsenal’s stumble changes the projections
Arsenal are no longer considered the main favorites to win the UEFA Champions League, according to the latest projections from Opta’s supercomputer.
Before their 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg of the Round of 16, the team managed by Mikel Arteta had been ranked as the most likely champion. However, the result in Germany has shifted the outlook of the competition.
Bayern Munich rise to the top
Following the updated simulations, Arsenal’s chances of lifting the trophy dropped from 26.7 percent to 22.07 percent.
That decline opened the door for Bayern Munich to become the new favorite in the tournament. The German giants surged ahead in the projections after taking a commanding 6-1 advantage against Atalanta in their knockout tie.
A difficult week for Premier League clubs
The change in predictions also reflects the disappointing results for Premier League teams in the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16.
None of the six English clubs competing in the tournament managed to win their match. Arsenal and Newcastle settled for draws against Bayer Leverkusen and Barcelona, respectively, while Liverpool suffered a narrow defeat to Galatasaray.
Meanwhile, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City endured heavy losses that significantly complicated their chances of progressing.
City’s odds drop dramatically
Among the English sides, Manchester City experienced one of the most dramatic shifts in probability.
After their 3-0 defeat against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu, Opta’s model now gives the team managed by Pep Guardiola just a 2.27 percent chance of winning the competition this season.
Liverpool still have a path forward
Despite the difficult week for English teams, Liverpool remains the next Premier League club in the ranking behind Arsenal.
The Reds return to Anfield trailing 1-0 against Galatasaray, but the simulations still consider them capable of overturning the deficit and keeping their Champions League campaign alive.
