The tie between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich took a dramatic turn following the 1-2 result at the Santiago Bernabéu. What once looked like a balanced matchup now has a clear favorite according to the numbers. Opta’s supercomputer updated its projections and now gives the German side a commanding 87.48% chance of reaching the semifinals, leaving the Spanish giants with just a 12.52% probability.

The first-leg result, combined with the second leg being played at the Allianz Arena, heavily favors the team led by Vincent Kompany, who now holds both the advantage and the momentum heading into the decisive clash.

The Numbers Don’t Favor Madrid

From a statistical standpoint, the outlook is challenging for Real Madrid. Beyond the unfavorable scoreline, they must face a side that has shown consistency and attacking efficiency throughout the season. Players like Harry Kane, along with a well-structured offensive system, make Bayern Munich especially dangerous when given space.

The model factors in recent form, home advantage, and attacking output — all areas where the German side currently has the edge. For Real Madrid, the task will be to take control of possession, increase attacking intensity, and improve finishing, something they failed to fully capitalize on in the first leg.

However, that same need to attack could open up opportunities. Players like Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior thrive in transition and could exploit any spaces left behind.

History, Madrid’s Greatest Ally

Beyond the data, there is one element no algorithm can fully quantify: Real Madrid’s legacy in the Champions League. The club has built its reputation on dramatic comebacks and unforgettable nights, often in the most difficult environments.

In recent meetings between these two teams in this competition, the edge has leaned toward the Spanish side. Even in Munich, Real Madrid has delivered iconic performances, including a historic win that stunned Bayern Munich in past knockout rounds.

That history fuels the belief that, despite the odds, the tie is far from over.

A Match That Can Change Everything

The second leg in Germany will be decisive. Real Madrid will need tactical discipline, attacking precision, and defensive solidity to overturn the deficit. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich will aim to control the tempo and capitalize on any mistakes.

The numbers clearly favor the German side, but in the Champions League, statistics don’t always tell the full story. The final chapter is yet to be written.